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January Banter

Isopycnic

By Isopycnic,
in Southeastern States

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

In this case, they should have issued advisories and warnings, yes.  I didn't see a warning for my county until after I already had 1.5" of snow on the ground.  Really.

You know what, it's not the NWS's fault. It's the fault of businesses and school systems not heeding their watches and warnings. I don't know who school systems consult regarding the weather, but had they asked any of us, we would have told them to either early release or not go at all. We knew the night before and they could have made that decision then when parents had a chance to plan and keep kids home. This didn't have to happen at all. And what would have happened had this been an ice storm, or a foot of snow? It's going to happen again..

 

As far as the schools, the safety of the students and staff is the most important responsibility they have, and they failed that duty.

 

Ryan Maue said that in Florida when a tropical storm approaches, the National Guard is activated, the Red Cross, and FEMA. No such plan here, even though we know what happens every time we have a winter storm. This emergency is no different than that. The effects are widespread and crippling. This is also a total failure of government agencies to help us out when it's needed. People are going to have to take responsibility for their own actions/inactions and not rely on the government to help. 

 

I left early yesterday, I was even going to take sick/vacation/personal to do it. I knew what was happening and realized they weren't going to let us go, so I took the matter into my own hands. It's up to us... we're the ones that know what's going on. We have to keep people informed. Obviously the media does a very poor job getting the "real" information out. I use Facebook, Twitter, my website, a blog... everything I can use when things get bad. I got the word out and those people were prepared. 

 

Atlanta metro has to come up with a snow storm disaster plan to avoid this in the future. Staggered business releases, conservative school closings, early activation of National Guard units that have snow/ice capabilities, and activation of warming stations and safe houses. There needs to be a central command center that can manage all emergency communications and coordinate GDOT as well as county road crews. 

 

This is as crippling for us as a hurricane is for Florida. Not as devastating property wise, but just as crippling to the transportation infrastructure. 

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted

I'm embarrassed to call Atlanta home this week. What a colossal lack of planning, communication, judgement and action by city and state officials. Heads will surely roll for this.

 

It's definitely going to be an interesting few weeks coming up.  Traffic is one thing, we have tolerated horrible traffic jams here for a long time now.  But the kids and the stranded buses and sleeping at school part has pushed people a bit too far, I suspect.

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CherokeeGA

CherokeeGA

Posted
Posted

It's the fault of businesses and school systems not heeding their watches and warnings. I don't know who school systems consult regarding the weather, but had they asked any of us, we would have told them to either early release or not go at all.

 

I think that for my county, that was the thing - we weren't under a warning, so it's not like they were ignoring a warning and opening school for the day despite one. 

 

There are interesting comments in the Atlanta thread about how NWS has simple accumulation measurement cutoffs for determining when a warning goes out, and whether perhaps the decision should be taken with rather more consideration than that (i.e. factors such as temp combined with precip totals - as someone put it, and I paraphrase, 1" of wet slush at 33 degrees has a lot different impact to roads than 1" of dry powder at 20 degrees after weeks of fairly frequent below freezing lows).  That's a useful conversation and I hope it goes places with the people that matter and participate in making those decisions.  Maybe we'll get improvements to the warning system from it.

 

For better or worse, the school systems do not check forums like this one for a forecast.  They just go by the official warning system and briefings with the NWS and government agencies.  You and I both know that some very smart people here felt there was high potential that this was going to be "significantly more" in N.Ga., but officially it wasn't forecast to be "significantly more" way up here.

 

It doesn't excuse anything that happened south of here - the metro area counties WERE under a warning, and they were warned some 8 hours ahead of time.  I don't know why they opened their schools.  I don't know why employers ignored it until lunchtime.  What has happened at the north perimeter and below is terrible.  There were multiple levels of questionable decision-making amongst all those folks responsible for the schools and businesses and roads and public welfare down there.  It will no doubt be discussed for weeks if not months.

 

Hopefully, ultimately, something good will come from it.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Copied from the storm thread  :)  

Special thanks to the Red Taggers and SE Crew(you know who you are) that filled this thread with the best knowledge available. Also to our Super Secret Black Ops Ninja's.....Seanus, Jeremy, John......You all ROCK!!   I know I appreciate everything you all do and that is what makes this place so special   :wub:   :hug:   :wub:

:wub:  :hug:   :wub:  

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frazdaddy

frazdaddy

Posted
Posted

Woohoo, streak continues, looks like RDU came in at 1.4"! Still since 2010 without a 2" snowstorm. This just made my day icing on the cake for this bust.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

You know stamp collecting is a great hobby. You should give it a try.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Woohoo, streak continues, looks like RDU came in at 1.4"! Still since 2010 without a 2" snowstorm. This just made my day icing on the cake for this bust.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

 

I ended up with about 1.5".  Looking at the numbers is just crazy, prior to 1990 we would consistently get 7-10" seasons and we would have a couple of seasons every 10 years that were klunkers but than we would have 2 or 3 every 10 years that were 10"+ seasons.  Those days are gone, I don't want to get into a climate debate as that is such a hot button topic, but other areas are doing fairly well, for goodness sakes PGV probably has us tripled up over the past 10 years and they have a 30 year snow average half of what we do.  Not sure what they finished at, but I guess they are 200% of climo this season and they were climo+ last season.  So really it's just been bad luck the past 10 years, it's been very close to being a really snowy 10 years for us but we have just missed bigger snows NSEW.  

 

I know I got ripped apart yesterday for calling the bust so early, but it was fairly evident, the HRRR nailed it, the trough wasn't digging as much and things started ticking east and that's all it took, 30 miles west and we are 4-6".

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

You called it dude. Hats off. What did you end up with?

I just can't believe how hard it is to get accumulating snow. I have lived in NC all my life and we used to get at least one decent snowfall every year until the 90s. Now, you get more mixing, less qpf, boundary layer issues, less dynamic cooling, etc etc etc. it's crazy.

 

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me. 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

Yeah apologies to packbacker, I can't believe all of that moisture over GA didn't at least skim RDU. This storm was an epic bust for most places. It could have been much different had that southern energy even incorporated. I hate when we miss big snowfalls by a hair.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah apologies to packbacker, I can't believe all of that moisture over GA didn't at least skim RDU. This storm was an epic bust for most places. It could have been much different had that southern energy even incorporated. I hate when we miss big snowfalls by a hair.

Exactly, because we just don't get that many opportunities.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

I can't believe I did better than RDU, pretty amazing.  Those morning virga bands really helped us out.  Brought the humidity up like 30% so when the main event started around 1pm it almost immediately started snowing.

 

Still, I feel the worst for Asheville.  How KAVL can go over 3 years without measuring 1" I'll never know.  Someone get those guys a snowstorm!

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me.

Yeah, but it's been the other way around some too. Anyway, no complaining from me. It would just be nice to get back to the days where you could count on a decent snow every year...whether you're CLT, GSO, RDU or wherever.

On another note, it looks like we're going to make it through yet another winter with no -NAO, after supposedly entering into a period of it predominately being in the - phase.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I still think RDU folks have little to complain about. I had to watch during 2009 and 2010 you guys getting pounded round after round while I was stuck on the outside looking in. Even in March of 2009 CLT underperformed. I think 2003 was the last time CLT jackpotted during a storm. Meanwhile RDU was killing it. Don't even mention 2011 to me.

You must be thinking of a different RDU, we missed the historic Dec 2009 blizzard, cold rain. We then underperformed with the end Jan event as it was a lot of sleet and then the mid Feb event PGV jackpotted, we got 2". Finished around 8", so 1" over climo for a "historic" winter. GSO killed it that year, had to be almost 20" season. I am fairly sure PGV had a 10" season, so again they topped us. We definitely have room to complain, as does AVL.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
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Yeah, but it's been the other way around some too. Anyway, no complaining from me. It would just be nice to get back to the days where you could count on a decent snow every year...whether you're CLT, GSO, RDU or wherever.

On another note, it looks like we're going to make it through yet another winter with no -NAO, after supposedly entering into a period of it predominately being in the - phase.

Winter looks like it could be over here, the SE ridge looks like it woke up from his PV beat down. The Euro is trying to bring lower heights into its run for the SE but looks very marginal, and you know how marginal works out around here. The pattern looks ripe for the MA to the NE. I do think a big one will come for the mountains/foothills, I will be rooting hard for them to get hit.

The rubber band has to snap for RDU eventually, we can't keep up this futility forever, or can it...

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Winter looks like it could be over here, the SE ridge looks like it woke up from his PV beat down. The Euro is trying to bring lower heights into its run for the SE but looks very marginal, and you know how marginal works out around here. The pattern looks ripe for the MA to the NE. I do think a big one will come for the mountains/foothills, I will be rooting hard for them to get hit.

The rubber band has to snap for RDU eventually, we can't keep up this futility forever, or can it...

Nah, we'll come back at some point. Really, I'm not too worried about the SE ridge killing the rest of the winter. I think we'll probably escape below normal temps for the next 10 days to two weeks and after that, it's anyone's guess. I suspect that we'll see more arctic intrusions, though they should lessen in severity as we reach the end of Feb. The SE ridge has not had staying power all winter. Maybe this time is different, but I doubt it. Plus, there have been more hints of a -NAO recently. That's a good sign, but will it establish itself in time? I'm not confident enough in it to rely on it to honk for a snowy 2nd half of Feb.

I do think we have 1 or 2 more legit possibilities of a significant winter event, but that's predicated on my thoughts above that the -PNA/SE ridge doesn't maintain it's hold. I strongly suspect that the Euro and the GFS are right about having a system in the 8-10 day range -- it looks to be an active period. BUT, I also strongly suspect it will trend warmer, not colder, as we get closer. That's much more likely when you have a trough in the west and a PV that rotates north, not east. The models are showing it heading more east with time, creating confluence across the NE, locking in HP for our 10 day winter storm. But that hasn't been the case very much this year. We've seen that look in the LR several times so far, but it gives way to the vortex rotating north as we work in. No confluence + SE ridge + -PNA = cutter or Miller screw. If confluence holds, parts of the region will get a winter storm. But we haven't seen a lot of that so far. It's usually very transient.

After that, we have about 3 more weeks of legitimate winter for most of the area. Once we get into March, boundary layer concerns abound, night snow is what you hope for, and the eye of the needle becomes much smaller. And before the climotologists pile on, I know we've had snow in March. But March has not been a great month for snow recently. Anyway, like I said, I'd give about a 60% chance of 1 or 2 more events...greater if we see a real west-based -NAO, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

That's it. Enjoy the snow. It's the only snow you've got.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Nah, we'll come back at some point. Really, I'm not too worried about the SE ridge killing the rest of the winter. I think we'll probably escape below normal temps for the next 10 days to two weeks and after that, it's anyone's guess. I suspect that we'll see more arctic intrusions, though they should lessen in severity as we reach the end of Feb. The SE ridge has not had staying power all winter. Maybe this time is different, but I doubt it. Plus, there have been more hints of a -NAO recently. That's a good sign, but will it establish itself in time? I'm not confident enough in it to rely on it to honk for a snowy 2nd half of Feb.

I do think we have 1 or 2 more legit possibilities of a significant winter event, but that's predicated on my thoughts above that the -PNA/SE ridge doesn't maintain it's hold. I strongly suspect that the Euro and the GFS are right about having a system in the 8-10 day range -- it looks to be an active period. BUT, I also strongly suspect it will trend warmer, not colder, as we get closer. That's much more likely when you have a trough in the west and a PV that rotates north, not east. The models are showing it heading more east with time, creating confluence across the NE, locking in HP for our 10 day winter storm. But that hasn't been the case very much this year. We've seen that look in the LR several times so far, but it gives way to the vortex rotating north as we work in. No confluence + SE ridge + -PNA = cutter or Miller screw. If confluence holds, parts of the region will get a winter storm. But we haven't seen a lot of that so far. It's usually very transient.

After that, we have about 3 more weeks of legitimate winter for most of the area. Once we get into March, boundary layer concerns abound, night snow is what you hope for, and the eye of the needle becomes much smaller. And before the climotologists pile on, I know we've had snow in March. But March has not been a great month for snow recently. Anyway, like I said, I'd give about a 60% chance of 1 or 2 more events...greater if we see a real west-based -NAO, but I'm not holding my breath for it.

That's it. Enjoy the snow. It's the only snow you've got.

 

Not going to post this in the Wx Pattern Discussion thread, you just get ripped apart for saying it's not going to snow.  The CPC Super Ens have been pretty good this winter, it's been consistently advertising small type events based on the analogs and that did come to fruition.  The day 8 and 11 analogs are not good, big SE ridge and obviously not snowy for our area, so things look fairly bleak until at least after Feb 10th, as you were saying above, and that leaves us with roughly 3 weeks to play with.  Will see what happens, at least we will be done with this crazy cold for awhile.  I will say the mountains/foothills has a chance with the day 8 and 10 storm, just need a little relaxation with the SE ridge and the lows could track just east of that area, pattern does look active and opens up the gulf, could be some big ones, in fact be shocked if we didn't see a big one plaster the MW to the NE in the next 10 days or so.

 

One more note, the Euro Ens days 12-15 look very close to something nice, -AO/-NAO, neutral PNA, big snow type pattern, but you can tell there some spread, but if we were not in such a snow drought I would be very interested, but this isn't our time right now.

 

 

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