daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just read Peach trees start seeing damage around -15°F. Yeah...pretty much under that temp, hardy peaches will start seeing damage...although location (shade/sun), snow cover (depth) and other factors (wind?) also come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I would appreciate it if someone with access to the GEM could post the temp plots for Thursday morning April 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 YYZ actually hit -11F at the 8:00am reading. Went out to shoot photos last night and nearly had frostbite on my hand, it was painful for a few minutes after I jumped back in my car. Agree that this morning may be colder than the Monday-Tuesday scenario given the flow direction, but we'll see if the skies clear up earlier in the evening (didn't clear fully until after midnight last night). Wind also took quite a while to die down last night. Possible the models are underdoing the cold again. Fresh dumping of snow may help as well. Only one way to find out. Either way I'm enjoying this bitter cold, love extremes! Multiple reports of large cryoseisms or 'frost quakes' across Toronto overnight and this morning. A friend in Toronto described the sound as someone running full speed into his garage door. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/frost-quakes-wake-toronto-residents-on-cold-night-1.2482615 I had some last night. The first one scared the sh!t out of me, lol. Surprisingly, I didnt know what they were until the first few happened and I decided to google it, haha. And I wouldn't disregard temperatures going down below -20C next week. The lakes are gaining ice rapidly, Erie gained 24% in two days, lol. So I agree with your analogy. With the snow cover and rapidly increasing ice coverage, the temperatures have no way to modify themselves and models usually dont pick this up until within 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I know I'm a when it comes to arctic outbreaks...but this discussion from MSP is one of the more remarkable ones you'll ever see. THE FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM IS SQUARELY ON THE INTENSE...POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING COLD AIR OUTBREAK LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS ALL THE MARKINGS OF A HISTORIC EVENT...AND A FORECASTER IS LUCKY IF HE/SHE SEES ONE LIKE THIS IN THEIR ENTIRE CAREER. SURPRISINGLY FOR SUCH AN EXTREME EVENT...THERE IS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OF IT OCCURRING...ASIDE FROM SMALLER DETAILS SUCH AS WHETHER WE CAN BREAK ALL TIME COLD RECORD HIGHS MONDAY. EVEN MOS IS CALLING FOR ALL TIME RECORD HIGHS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK FOR THE 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF -35 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS OCCURRING. THE SOURCE REGION OF THIS AIR MASS IS IN NUNAVUT WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -30. MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO MODERATION AS THIS CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO LIMITED SUN AND CONTINUOUS SNOW PACK. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER STABLE IN DEPICTING NEAR RECORD COLD AIR FOR SEVERAL RUNS. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 15 TO 20 BELOW RANGE MONDAY. THE MOS NUMBERS FOR MONDAY ARE BOLSTERED BY 925 MB TEMPS IN THE -29 TO -34C RANGE WHICH WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS BELOW ZERO IF WE CAN EVEN MIX THAT DEEP. HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS DOWNWARD TO REFLECT THE GOOD CONSISTENCY. THE COLDEST HIGH EVER RECORDED AT MSP IS -17F...OCCURRING WITH THE INFAMOUS COLD OUTBREAKS OF 2/2/1996 AND 12/23/1983. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR THAT ALL TIME RECORD TO BE TIED. USUALLY FOR SUCH EXTREME TEMPS TO OCCUR...CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. IT WILL NOT BE NECESSARY IN THIS AIRMASS. IN FACT...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL ICE CRYSTALS. IF THE AIR TEMPERATURES WERE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH...PERHAPS THE WIND ACCOMPANYING THE BITTER COLD AIR IS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THROUGHOUT THE OUTBREAK WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS DROPPING TO 35 TO 50 BELOW...EXCEPT BETWEEN 50 AND 60 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. BOTTOM LINE...IT WILL BE COLD...EXTREMELY COLD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I would appreciate it if someone with access to the GEM could post the temp plots for Thursday morning April 9th April 9th! How about January 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 April 9th! How about January 9th. Opps!!! lmao and thank you, that is some kind of cold, as of now no other model is showing that solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Opps!!! lmao Someone is thinking about spring already! Looks like -40 in south central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 IND has a daytime high of -9F here on Monday. Again might get screwed with a midnight high depending on timing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Look at this observation from Parent, (La Tuque) Quebec (1450ft above sea level) about 150 miles from Montreal CWPK 031300Z AUTO 00000KT M43/M48 RMK AO1 SOG 40 3019 SLP283 T14331483 Conditions at: CWPK observed 03 January 2014 13:00 UTC Temperature: -43.3°C (-46°F) Dewpoint: -48.3°C (-55°F) [RH = 58%] Pressure (altimeter): missing [sea-level pressure: 1028.3 mb] Winds: calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just saw those windchill watches go up for northern Ohio and Michigan. I never knew there was such an animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 NWS point and click capability has crashed for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 LOT pretty much sums it up in the last sentence ... REGARDING THE COLD...DESPITE THE PROBABILITY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER...THIS WILL BE A PURELY COLD ADVECTION DRIVEN TEMPERATURE PLUNGE AS THE POLAR VORTEX ROTATES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT ON GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES ON 850/925 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO AROUND OR EVEN BELOW -30C OVER THE AREA...AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO THE TEENS TO 20 BELOW ZERO AREA WIDE. THIS IS APPROACHING RECORD CRITERIA AT CLIMATE SITES AND COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES OF 35 TO 50 BELOW ZERO BY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN OPEN AND RURAL AREAS. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...OUR AREA WILL RESEMBLE THE ARCTIC TUNDRA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From a thread I started in November 2012: Here is a study about the frequency of various wind chill readings in the northern US.http://www.crh.noaa..../pdf/tsp_15.pdf Here is what we gathered to be the coldest recorded wind chills by state. Of course these aren't "official"; just anecdotal. IL: Chicago -58, 12/24/83 IN: Indianapolis -53, 1/20/85 WI: Madison -54, 1/20/85 ND: Minot -66, 2/1/96 MN: Duluth -66, 1/10/82 IA: Mason City -54, 2/2/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Lows to -20 forecast for Central Ohio now. Columbus has hit that only 4 times in history. January 1879, January 1884, February 1899 and January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Governor Walker (WI) is considering closing all schools early next week. http://journaltimes.com/news/local/education/local_schools/gov-scott-walker-to-consider-closing-schools-statewide-because-of/article_872986b5-1fde-50b7-ba8f-5f0716cff70b.html Milwaukee Public Schools will be closed on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 From a thread I started in November 2012: Here is a study about the frequency of various wind chill readings in the northern US. http://www.crh.noaa..../pdf/tsp_15.pdf Here is what we gathered to be the coldest recorded wind chills by state. Of course these aren't "official"; just anecdotal. IL: Chicago -58, 12/24/83 IN: Indianapolis -53, 1/20/85 WI: Madison -54, 1/20/85 ND: Minot -66, 2/1/96 MN: Duluth -66, 1/10/82 IA: Mason City -54, 2/2/96 To add to your info the MN state climatology office has a good article on wind chills.http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/historic_windchills.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 ILX going with -8 here Monday with low of -16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 -15 F should be no problem for YYZ early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On a somewhat 'bright' note, the emerald ash borer will get a kick in the pants where temps will be in the -30's. snip from MPR weather Blog "Winter mortality for emerald ash borer is definitely temperature dependent. The larvae can supercool to a certain point, but they die if they freeze, and there is variability in tolerance among individual insects. A recent study from the Forest Service (Venette and Abrahamson–see attached) in Minnesota showed that 5% of the insects die at 0F, 34% at -10F, 79% at -20F and 98% at -30F." Interesting read, full blog link: http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Governor Walker (WI) is considering closing all schools early next week. [url=http://journaltimes.com/news/local/education/local_schools/gov-scott-walker-to-consider-closing-schools-statewide-because-of/article_872986b5-1fde-50b7-ba8f-5f0716cff70b.html]http://journaltimes.com/news/local/education/local_schools/gov-scott-walker-to-consider-closing-schools-statewide-because-of/article_872986b5-1fde-50b7-ba8f-5f0716cff70b.html[/ Schools in Kenosha are following MKE and closing Monday, possibly/likely Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 On a somewhat 'bright' note, the emerald ash borer will get a kick in the pants where temps will be in the -30's. snip from MPR weather Blog "Winter mortality for emerald ash borer is definitely temperature dependent. The larvae can supercool to a certain point, but they die if they freeze, and there is variability in tolerance among individual insects. A recent study from the Forest Service (Venette and Abrahamson–see attached) in Minnesota showed that 5% of the insects die at 0F, 34% at -10F, 79% at -20F and 98% at -30F." Interesting read, full blog link: http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/ Yup...got to love bugs dying. I hope the Japanese Beetles all die in the ground, as do the Rose Chafers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Migr17 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Governor Walker (WI) is considering closing all schools early next week. http://journaltimes.com/news/local/education/local_schools/gov-scott-walker-to-consider-closing-schools-statewide-because-of/article_872986b5-1fde-50b7-ba8f-5f0716cff70b.html Milwaukee Public Schools will be closed on Monday. Schools have been dropping like crazy here for the past hour or so. They might all close without his help at this rate. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hit -12 this morning here. Point still has -12 for a high on Monday. Gonna be chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Looks like it's going to be another situation in Michigan where the further south you live, the colder the temps. Coldwater probably jackpots the morning low on Tuesday. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 On a somewhat 'bright' note, the emerald ash borer will get a kick in the pants where temps will be in the -30's. snip from MPR weather Blog "Winter mortality for emerald ash borer is definitely temperature dependent. The larvae can supercool to a certain point, but they die if they freeze, and there is variability in tolerance among individual insects. A recent study from the Forest Service (Venette and Abrahamson–see attached) in Minnesota showed that 5% of the insects die at 0F, 34% at -10F, 79% at -20F and 98% at -30F." Interesting read, full blog link: http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/ That is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Lake Erie might end up mostly ice covered soon. Northern Lake Michigan probably will too. Could the LES season wind down early this winter due to ice coverage? It wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 I had no idea that wind chill watches existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 -15 F should be no problem for YYZ early next week With fresh snow cover on the ground, it should be some pretty impressive cold for Toronto, I agree. I think Environment Canada is underestimating the intensity of the cold moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 We don't see intrahour data but it may have ended up being colder today than in January 2004. Yesterday ranks as one of the coldest days in recent memory for me in Toronto. Funnily enough, I seemed to be the one who was the least bothered by it, perhaps due to having become used to it up in Ottawa. You wouldn't believe how many people don't dress right for the weather, as in no hat/tuque, no mitts/gloves ect. One big cultural difference I've noticed between Toronto and Ottawa is that people in Ottawa, whether young, middle aged or old tend to dress for the weather and are less phased by the cold. I've seen the Rideau Canal skateway jammed with people with temperatures of 0 Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottumwawx Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 -18 here last night. Waterloo was -21 to tie record low. Without checking, I believe that is the third night under -20 at Waterloo this winter. I have had -22 and got down to -13 this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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