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Early January Major/Potential Record Cold

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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lol, wow. But yeah, no I understand the process. Imagine if we could pull a day where it doesn't get out of the double digits below zero...

 

 

I'm almost ready to go there.  Assuming no cheap midnight high on Monday, we're going to have a shot.  Can't believe I'm saying it but if everything breaks right, perhaps the coldest daytime reading since January 20, 1985 or even January 1, 1864.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

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I wonder what -75 would be on the old scale. 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/?n=windchill#New

 

Assuming the -75 results from a -35 air temp with 35 mph winds, that would equate to -105 on the old scale.   :o

 

If anything close to those RPM model wind chills verify, that could be all-time record low wind chills for the lower 48 (outside of mountainous areas like Mt. Washington).  That is insane.  Even a -60 wind chill on the new scale (-30 with a 20 mph wind) is remarkable.

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Toronto4

Toronto4

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I was down at Toronto Harbour Front this afternoon and the harbor was frozen solid. You could probably skate to the Toronto Islands!

The funny thing is that a local reporter once wrote that up until the 50s this was a regular occurrence.

I noticed that too today.

I think tomorrow morning will have the coldest temperatures for Toronto in the next 7 days, but there's a good chance that high temperatures will struggle to go above 0 F (-18C) on Tuesday. Latest short range guidance is hinting at temps tomorrow morning around -14/-15F (-25/-26C) at Pearson Airport.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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I noticed that too today.

I think tomorrow morning will have the coldest temperatures for Toronto in the next 7 days, but there's a good chance that high temperatures will struggle to go above 0 F (-18C) on Tuesday. Latest short range guidance is hinting at temps tomorrow morning around -14/-15F (-25/-26C) at Pearson Airport.

 

Probably contingent on the amount of clearing and if the winds slacken off.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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Obviously still 3+ days out, but...

 

Records that could be in jeopardy for Chicago/ORD:

 

1/6: Min high -1 (1912) & min low -14 (1988).

1/7: Min high -4 (1942) & min low -16 (1912).

 

Coldest max temps on record:

1. -11 (12/24/1983)

2. -11 (1/18/994)

3. -10 (1/25/1987)

4. -8 (2/9/1899)

5. -7 (1/16/1977)

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

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I'm down to -21.3 Celsius at my place. Looks like the sky has cleared.

 

Its down to -21.8C on my thermometer. Skies are clearing and the winds are dieing down. YYZ sitting at -19.4C but it should drop off later in the night. Still have 7 hours till it bottoms out. 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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post-14-0-89805300-1388726985_thumb.png

 

 

This is valid at 18z Monday, so not peak heating, but it shows why there should be high confidence on daytime temps remaining well below zero at LAF on Monday.  Mixing heights are around 900 mb on this sounding with dry adiabatic lapse rates below that.  If the GFS is correct with the vertical temperature structure aloft, it's basically impossible to be much warmer than about -26C (or around -15F) at the surface at that time as it would take a superadiabatic layer near the surface, which is not happening at this time of year with a deep snowpack.  So between this, MOS, other model support and the fact that we're only a few days away, it's getting to the point where it's time to go all in.  

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
930 PM CST THU JAN 2 2014 /1030 PM EST THU JAN 2 2014/

..RECORD LONGEST STREAKS OF BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES

IF CURRENT FORECASTS VERIFY THEN THE BITTER COLD SNAP EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE THE LONGEST DURATION PERIOD OF SUBZERO TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY FEBRUARY 1996...OR NEARLY 17 YEARS. HERE'S A LOOK BACK
AT SOME OF THE LONGEST DURATION PERIODS OF CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH
SUBZERO TEMPERATURES IN CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD DATING BACK TO THE
WINTER OF 1929-30.

CHICAGO

RANK # OF HOURS CLIMBED ABOVE COLDEST TEMP
BELOW ZERO ZERO DURING STREAK
1) 98 DEC 26 1983 AT 11 AM -25
2) 66 FEB 4 1996 AT 2 PM -19
3) 60 JAN 11 1982 AT 8 AM -26
4) 48 JAN 21 1985 AT 8 AM -27
5) 45 JAN 19 1994 AT 2 PM -21
6) 44 JAN 6 1988 AT 1 PM -14
44 JAN 16 1994 AT 12 PM -17
8) 43 JAN 17 1977 AT 1 PM -19
9) 42 JAN 17 1982 AT 11 PM -25
10) 39 FEB 10 1933 AT 9 AM -19

ROCKFORD

RANK # OF HOURS CLIMBED ABOVE COLDEST TEMP
BELOW ZERO ZERO DURING STREAK
1) 128 FEB 5 1996 AT 2 AM -24
2) 102 DEC 26 1983 AT 12 PM -24
3) 84(E) JAN 22 1970 AT 8 AM -22
4) 75(E) JAN 30 1966 AT 1 PM -20
5) 70 JAN 7 1988 AT 1 PM -19
6) 62 DEC 23 1989 AT 1 PM -20
7) 61 JAN 16 1994 AT 1 PM -21
8) 58 JAN 31 1951 AT 11 AM -19

IN 1970 AND 1966 ROCKFORD TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE 3 HOURLY...SO
THE DURATION WAS ESTIMATED AND COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE RANKING. 
 

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daddylonglegs

daddylonglegs

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ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN
ONE OF THE COLDEST AIR MASSES SINCE FEBRUARY 2-3 1996. BY MONDAY
MORNING...925 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -34C IN BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF...AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -28C IN THE
GFS AND -30C IN THE ECMWF. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEING OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION
RESEMBLES JANUARY 18 1994. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -21F ON THIS DAY. AS A
RESULT...FEEL GOOD WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF -14F TO
-18F. THE FORECAST ON THIS DAY WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
GRIDS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE
TRICKY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND THIS WOULD NORMALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME. HOWEVER...THIS
IS ALSO THE SAME TIME IN WHICH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS THE
STRONGEST. AS A RESULT WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
-20 TO -26. ON MONDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN
INVERSION BELOW 950 MB...SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE COOL QUITE A BIT
UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THROUGHOUT THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIME
PERIOD...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AGAIN
SIMILAR TO JANUARY 18 1994. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -40 TO -50F.
WIND CHILLS THIS LOW CAN FREEZE EXPOSED SKIN IN LESS THAN 10
MINUTES. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECT THAT A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

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Posted

 

 

ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANOTHER ARCTIC

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN

ONE OF THE COLDEST AIR MASSES SINCE FEBRUARY 2-3 1996. BY MONDAY

MORNING...925 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -34C IN BOTH THE GFS

AND THE ECMWF...AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -28C IN THE

GFS AND -30C IN THE ECMWF. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE

3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH

PRESSURE BEING OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST...THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION

RESEMBLES JANUARY 18 1994. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SAW HIGH

TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -10 TO -21F ON THIS DAY. AS A

RESULT...FEEL GOOD WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF -14F TO

-18F. THE FORECAST ON THIS DAY WAS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF

GRIDS.

LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO BE

TRICKY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY

AND THIS WOULD NORMALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES UP SOME. HOWEVER...THIS

IS ALSO THE SAME TIME IN WHICH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS THE

STRONGEST. AS A RESULT WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM

-20 TO -26. ON MONDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START TO

DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN

INVERSION BELOW 950 MB...SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE COOL QUITE A BIT

UNDER THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THROUGHOUT THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING TIME

PERIOD...WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. AGAIN

SIMILAR TO JANUARY 18 1994. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS AND THE

FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES OF -40 TO -50F.

WIND CHILLS THIS LOW CAN FREEZE EXPOSED SKIN IN LESS THAN 10

MINUTES. AS A RESULT...STILL EXPECT THAT A WIND CHILL WARNING WILL

BE NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

 

 

I think that some media people might be migrating north to see what may happen in the Embarrass MN for this event.  Some mets are calling for low air temps of 40-50° below zero in Northern MN, Embarrass sits in a valley,  How low could it go? 

 

I have copied what is to follow from the Minnesota Forecaster Site...http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/

 

This is what DDwx had to say, he was until recently with the Weather Channel. (TWC)

 

"Its not a "Day After Tomorrow" scenario where the stratosphere was suddenly brought down to the earth's surface as that would be quite the problem, but definitely a significant Arctic air mass invasion that will rival the temperatures of the record cold outbreak in February of 1996. Recall that the state record of -60°F was set that day in Tower with nearby Embarrass at -57°F until the thermometer system broke, but others in the small town that mimicked the official one did hit -64°F. Will will achieve those kind of values in northern Minnesota -- it will be close but too many complicating factors to resolve before now and then -- -clouds, surface ridge orientation, Mother Natures mood, etc. In the metro area temperature forecasts of -25 to -30°F are typical across all the outlets. This air mass does have the potential given what is taking place northward in Canada."

 

See the Minnesota Forecaster page for his full post.

 

BTW, I'm known as randyinchamplin  on that page and I posted a explanation of the 1000-500mb thickness lines, if I made mistakes please point those out.

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

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Down to -1°F here in the city of Detroit, which while not extremely remarkable, is actually the 3rd coldest temperature I've ever recorded on my PWS since I put it into use in fall 2004. The urban heat island typically saves us from the sub-zero days even on the chilliest of nights, but a fresh deep snowcover and clear skies are making for extremely favorable conditions to radiate any marginal latent heat.

We could be on to something big here in the next week or so.

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