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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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Tacoma

Tacoma

Posted
Posted

Locals showing clear skies and cold end of week. I believe this one is gone and hopefully something the following week

well I think I've heard this one many times, maybe next week turns in to the next week and turns in to the end of winter.  threading a needle is one thing but this is worse than that

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

Well if it makes everyone feel better the NAM is having some changes even within 24 hours at 5h out west. 00z out to 57 looks a lot different than 18z (yes it's the NAM past 48). It doesn't have northern energy coming in as fast and the energy out west is fully detached from whats in the east. Still doesn't look like it will cut it but I'm not fully convinced the GFS won't change at 00z. 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Well, forgetting about long range stuff for a second... I found this interesting... some of the temps up in the mountains with all the precip that is falling...

 

Link to Sassafrass Mountain..

http://www.canoodlenest.com/weather/

 

Screen shot from Wunderground up around NE GA, TN and NC Mountains...

Ya we have been stuck in the 30s all day with rainfall. Hovering around 36 degrees. Mike Gold had some snowfall at about 6100 feet at the onset of the precipitation.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

:clap:

 

Amen to that. I think too many folks look at the maybes or could be. While I'll settle with my light snow event this monday in all probabilty .... still questions to be answer with this one. If the engery dives deep enough and fast enough and the plume of moisture associated with the longwave trough axis is close enough then this could get energized and juicy rather quickly.

It's had potential for two days, even 3.  3 days ago I was looking at 10's days of dry, and this was way suppressed, and not much.  Two days ago I had a storm this weekend.  As early as this morning the Gfs per meteostar said I'd get an inch of rain.  I blew by that hours ago, and I'm only just in to the heavy stuff.  It's the south and most every storm is a surprise, and here this one is under every ones nose, and with potential.  I've got rain coming up on me, and cold coming down.  Will the rain get high enough?  Will the cold get low enough?  The next 48 hours will tell, not the next 7 days, lol.  It's the south, you takes what  yer gets!  I've been 40 or less all day with a good cad and heavy rains.  In Jan this same scenario might be ten degrees cooler, just because it Jan. and climo give extras.  Man, the good stuff is only just now starting, and you need to ride every wave, because soon enough the ocean goes flat for another 9 months.  T 

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

well I think I've heard this one many times, maybe next week turns in to the next week and turns in to the end of winter. threading a needle is one thing but this is worse than that

I agree with you. I don't get excited over each model run as we have seen the let down the models do to us. Unless we have blocking generally systems don't work for us. I said next week as many have said block possible but have to see it to believe it

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Stuck at 35 here for the high. Started the morning at 21. Still waiting for warm enough weather to turn the heat off. Would like to get in on the torch for a few days

Lol we have had frost on the ground everyday since Tuesday. We have had lows from single digits to low to mid teens with highs in the 30s most of the week. Been very winter like.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Well, forgetting about long range stuff for a second... I found this interesting... some of the temps up in the mountains with all the precip that is falling...

 

Link to Sassafrass Mountain..

http://www.canoodlenest.com/weather/

 

Screen shot from Wunderground up around NE GA, TN and NC Mountains...

another cold rain and oh so close sigh.  its 34 and sort of breezy and picked up about .50

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Well throw me in the whiners camp tonight. Somehow each run of the GFS just gets progressively worse. 00z closes the door and kicks our butt by giving the NE a nice little dumping of snow on the 2nd and 3rd.

It's not even that great of a storm for them. They certainly get 3-12", but for early January in New England, that's hardly a crushing.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Don't look now and fwiw (not a whole lot...mainly entertainment) for the two dry cold wx folks but the 0z Euro is very cold days 9-10 (1/7-8) in the SE with -14C at 850 on 1/7 at ATL and high on 1/7 of only a little above 32 there. Not that I think it is going to come close to verifying. Regardless, hopefully Brick won't see this as he hates dry cold with a passion. Well he also hates cold rain as well as warm rain...well, unless there are tornadoes associated with it.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Don't look now and fwiw (not a whole lot...mainly entertainment) for the two dry cold wx folks but the 0z Euro is very cold days 9-10 (1/7-8) in the SE with -14C at 850 on 1/7 at ATL and high on 1/7 of only a little above 32 there. Not that I think it is going to come close to verifying. Regardless, hopefully Brick won't see this as he hates dry cold with a passion. Well he also hates cold rain as well as warm rain...well, unless there are tornadoes associated with it.

Figures we get the cold in here after the precip leaves, and it will only last a day or two, then we get a two inch rain producer after the cold moves out. Seems that these two never want to get together this winter
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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 Don't look now and fwiw (not a whole lot...mainly entertainment) for the two dry cold wx folks but the 0z Euro is very cold days 9-10 (1/7-8) in the SE with -14C at 850 on 1/7 at ATL and high on 1/7 of only a little above 32 there. Not that I think it is going to come close to verifying. Regardless, hopefully Brick won't see this as he hates dry cold with a passion. Well he also hates cold rain as well as warm rain...well, unless there are tornadoes associated with it.

Well, the good news to me is the Monday chance became a Tues. chance, with the cold air getting closer, but, oddly, the moisture is getting further away, lol.  But plenty of time now to change that situation in coming runs.  I love me some suppressed moisture with some cold dry pressing down!  Plus I'm getting great rains again.  Over 1.5 when I last looked about 11:30.  Just finishing round two, with three coming before dawn.  I guess I'm just easily entertained :)  Over 7 inches of rain in a week, after all the unimposing events, will do that for you.   T

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

    The Long Range models are completely worthless right now. You can't even get a high level view of what's going to happen. The only consistent thing is the cold in Canada. The PV is on our side of the globe and it looks to remain there. That is step 1 for getting the very cold air into the US. The bigger questions are, where does it come down and if then when? Last night's 0z GFS would have you believe it was heading out west. I believe I saw a 1064+ Mb high in Montana! That's pure fantasy, and should never be given any weight. This mornings run has the cold centered in the plains and much weaker. From what I can glean there are many possibilities on the table and nothing can be forecasted with any degree of confidence beyond 48 hours. One thing to note, we usually see this type of model confusion just before a major pattern change. Are we staring down the barrel of a major push of arctic air into the US? Likely, but we are going to have to have some blocking before we will get in on the action. IMO, the Euro ensemble mean will probably lead the way on this until the other models can see through the smoke.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

The Long Range models are completely worthless right now. You can't even get a high level view of what's going to happen. The only consistent thing is the cold in Canada. The PV is on our side of the globe and it looks to remain there. That is step 1 for getting the very cold air into the US. The bigger questions are, where does it come down and if then when? Last night's 0z GFS would have you believe it was heading out west. I believe I saw a 1064+ Mb high in Montana! That's pure fantasy, and should never be given any weight. This mornings run has the cold centered in the plains and much weaker. From what I can glean there are many possibilities on the table and nothing can be forecasted with any degree of confidence beyond 48 hours. One thing to note, we usually see this type of model confusion just before a major pattern change. Are we staring down the barrel of a major push of arctic air into the US? Likely, but we are going to have to have some blocking before we will get in on the action. IMO, the Euro ensemble mean will probably lead the way on this until the other models can see through the smoke.

This must be the longest pattern change in history then. The models have been "confused" for about a month now! :lol:
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Well, all the operationals are in fairly unanimous agreement that the LR is a grease fire on top of a dumpster fire in a train wreck...save for Larry's 240 Euro, which shows a transient clod shot. The PNA looks to return to the default 2013-2014 state of negative, the NAO looks to remain in the default 2013-2014 state of positive, and the AO looks to stay generally weakly negative, although just a few days ago, it looked like it would go deeply negative.

Maybe somebody can come in and post some beautiful ensemble images that show some pretty blue colors over the SE.

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MichaelJ

MichaelJ

Posted
Posted

We are obviously in a repeating pattern of coolish air followed by a weekend warm-up and rain, and I see no reason for that to change anytime soon. The extreme progressiveness of the pattern has locked us in to a scenario that will make virtually nobody south of DC happy, unless you like a miserable cold rain (no offense to Cold Rain) or cold and dry. It is going to take some major event or shift to break out of this pattern and, except for some more intense cold and dry air than we've seen so far, I just don't see the mechanism for it to change. January could possibly end up normal or slightly below normal temperature wise (but above normal precip wise), but it would be due largely to daytime highs being suppressed by the heavy rains or in the transient warm-ups we are sure to see offsetting some extreme, but short cold periods. Our main hope is for the PNA to suddenly spike positive and the NAO to plunge sharply negative but currently there is no indication that will happen on any model. Just sit back and enjoy the New Year and accept that trhis is largely our fate in the SE and is probably one reason JB and others totally ignore us, we're boring! :mellow:

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

We are obviously in a repeating pattern of coolish air followed by a weekend warm-up and rain, and I see no reason for that to change anytime soon. The extreme progressiveness of the pattern has locked us in to a scenario that will make virtually nobody south of DC happy, unless you like a miserable cold rain (no offense to Cold Rain) or cold and dry. It is going to take some major event or shift to break out of this pattern and, except for some more intense cold and dry air than we've seen so far, I just don't see the mechanism for it to change. January could possibly end up normal or slightly below normal temperature wise (but above normal precip wise), but it would be due largely to daytime highs being suppressed by the heavy rains or in the transient warm-ups we are sure to see offsetting some extreme, but short cold periods. Our main hope is for the PNA to suddenly spike positive and the NAO to plunge sharply negative but currently there is no indication that will happen on any model. Just sit back and enjoy the New Year and accept that trhis is largely our fate in the SE and is probably one reason JB and others totally ignore us, we're boring! :mellow:

I would think at this point we may end up with an overall warmer winter. December was warmer for most and this in itself would statistically favor the scenario. But (throwing all models and even meteorology out) during warm winters with a particular pattern we seem to get a break sometime around mid winter (late January). During cold winters this break is a warm spell(thaw), but this time it should be cold (maybe two - three weeks). Nothing really to back this up but just past experiences and a few past reads. So in short, I'm actually looking at the end of January to early February for a good setup. **models are horrible so why not go with the gut...

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

I'm reminded this morning of a quote often attributed (right or wrong) to Mark Twain: "Everybody complains about the weather, but nobody does anything about it."

 

It's times like this that I wish I could do something about the weather, but I can't so I'll sit back and happily take whatever Mother Nature wants to give.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

We are obviously in a repeating pattern of coolish air followed by a weekend warm-up and rain, and I see no reason for that to change anytime soon. The extreme progressiveness of the pattern has locked us in to a scenario that will make virtually nobody south of DC happy, unless you like a miserable cold rain (no offense to Cold Rain) or cold and dry. It is going to take some major event or shift to break out of this pattern and, except for some more intense cold and dry air than we've seen so far, I just don't see the mechanism for it to change. January could possibly end up normal or slightly below normal temperature wise (but above normal precip wise), but it would be due largely to daytime highs being suppressed by the heavy rains or in the transient warm-ups we are sure to see offsetting some extreme, but short cold periods. Our main hope is for the PNA to suddenly spike positive and the NAO to plunge sharply negative but currently there is no indication that will happen on any model. Just sit back and enjoy the New Year and accept that trhis is largely our fate in the SE and is probably one reason JB and others totally ignore us, we're boring! :mellow:

Good post!  And you are correct with the bolded.  we have no weather to speak of as far as winter goes. IT RAINS YEAR AROUND.  When AND if a snowstorm is coming our way they will be talking about it.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

This must be the longest pattern change in history then. The models have been "confused" for about a month now! :lol:

there has been a significant change in the 500mb pattern in the northern hemisphere over the last two weeks. Just compare a current chart to 2 weeks ago. As far as the change, the ao just went negative from its raging positive, se ridge is gone along with the Scandinavian ridge. Unfortunately with the vortex setting up in central Canada we are crushing any southern s/w leaving us with a northern stream dominated pattern. Which usually screws us any time of year especially in December without a -nao.
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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

We are obviously in a repeating pattern of coolish air followed by a weekend warm-up and rain, and I see no reason for that to change anytime soon. The extreme progressiveness of the pattern has locked us in to a scenario that will make virtually nobody south of DC happy, unless you like a miserable cold rain (no offense to Cold Rain) or cold and dry. It is going to take some major event or shift to break out of this pattern and, except for some more intense cold and dry air than we've seen so far, I just don't see the mechanism for it to change. January could possibly end up normal or slightly below normal temperature wise (but above normal precip wise), but it would be due largely to daytime highs being suppressed by the heavy rains or in the transient warm-ups we are sure to see offsetting some extreme, but short cold periods. Our main hope is for the PNA to suddenly spike positive and the NAO to plunge sharply negative but currently there is no indication that will happen on any model. Just sit back and enjoy the New Year and accept that trhis is largely our fate in the SE and is probably one reason JB and others totally ignore us, we're boring! :mellow:

I thought we already had the pattern shake-up changer? The mega 950 MB low in Europe was suppose to be the game changer ! Most were saying that would be the catalyst for the change , here we are with the same results we've had all fall. Even if the upper pattern changed, we are stuck with the same end results ! Don't know what it will take to get the blocking we need?!
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