MichaelJ Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 What people who were touting 1994 analogs for the US (JB for instance) did not mention was that the exteme cold came in short spurts in the SE and the storms arrived only when the warm-ups began leading to some ice, very light snow which did not accumulate and a milder February/March. The MA and especially the NE came out very well but we got pretty much skunked down here as far as snow goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Per the 18Z GEFS mean fwiw, any precip. of note waits til the backside of the Arctic high/warmup. But before that, there'd be a very cold shot of air. So, get out the coats and mittens and check the firewood! Maybe someone should start a thread for next week's bigtime cold threat. We don't need a storm for a thread, especially with a cold spell threat as noteworthy as this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Maybe someone should start a thread for next week's bigtime cold threat. We don't need a storm for a thread, especially with a cold spell threat as noteworthy as this one. I'll take the honor of doing that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Per the 18Z GEFS mean fwiw, any precip. of note waits til the backside of the Arctic high/warmup. But before that, there'd be a very cold shot of air. So, get out the coats and mittens and check the firewood! Maybe someone should start a thread for next week's bigtime cold threat. We don't need a storm for a thread, especially with a cold spell threat as noteworthy as this one. Ok, I'm confused again. Is this the torch cold coming? The time it was supposed to torch back a month ago? Or is this next torch going to be the torch this one hasn't been? Will the cold actually be cold, or a torch, or will the coming torch turn out cold? Or is this some metaphysical hibbity jibbity cold heat? Are we seeing atmospheric cold fusion? I'm still enjoying my cloudy not so warmish 40's and multiple rain chances during this dryspell that the Gfs foretold. Larry, I've lost my faith What do I believe? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 Here's a new dedicated thread to our cold blast...I stated some general guidelines on the first post of the thread as to what the focus should be. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42235-early-january-2014-arctic-attack-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ok, I'm confused again. Is this the torch cold coming? The time it was supposed to torch back a month ago? Or is this next torch going to be the torch this one hasn't been? Will the cold actually be cold, or a torch, or will the coming torch turn out cold? Or is this some metaphysical hibbity jibbity cold heat? Are we seeing atmospheric cold fusion? I'm still enjoying my cloudy not so warmish 40's and multiple rain chances during this dryspell that the Gfs foretold. Larry, I've lost my faith What do I believe? T Lol! You need to believe your hunches and don't need no stinkin' model. (Aside: Am I correct to assume you've seen "Blazing Saddles"?). I mean with names like Goofy, Doc, Crazy Uncle, VietNAM, and UKIE, how could you possibly trust any model. In all seriousness, the models have been pretty poor, definitely including the mighty Euro. So, it wouldn't shock me if the torch following this bigtime cold will end up shortlived. One thing the models have been consistent on is this bigtime cold. I'm assuming it is coming. If not, that would be one of the worst busts in history for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 18UTC GFS is really cold. Crazy windchills for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 18UTC GFS is really cold. Crazy windchills for Charlotte. Dewpoints as low as I can remember them in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the model guidance will always perform poorly in ultra fast flow patterns. They simply cannot keep up even the progressive tendency guidance. Continue to expect more changes in "sensible weather" depictions on future guidance runs leading up to this upcoming arctic outbreak. I'm not saying there's another precip loaded low surprise coming on guidance depictions a few days out like the several previous storms that have soaked the southeast in the past few weeks that were modelled poorly in the MR, but with the upper flow screaming across with no blocking mechanisms, the inconsistent individual players, especially subtle ones will be hard to "key" on until it gets into the SR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 18UTC GFS is really cold. Crazy windchills for Charlotte. Pretty sure we're not getting out of the 20s for Tuesday. Solid chance for single digit lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pretty sure we're not getting out of the 20s for Tuesday. Solid chance for single digit lows. Same for Atlanta.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 the model guidance will always perform poorly in ultra fast flow patterns. They simply cannot keep up even the progressive tendency guidance. Continue to expect more changes in "sensible weather" depictions on future guidance runs leading up to this upcoming arctic outbreak. I'm not saying there's another precip loaded low surprise coming on guidance depictions a few days out like the several previous storms that have soaked the southeast in the past few weeks that were modelled poorly in the MR, but with the upper flow screaming across with no blocking mechanisms, the inconsistent individual players, especially subtle ones will be hard to "key" on until it gets into the SR. Whatever precipitation that falls will be light during the arctic outbreak. With the Polar Jet shifting south during the outbreak stability increases and the LLJ usually that comes out of the gulf that acts as a pre-frontal jet will not be as prominent. The 18z GFS features a longhorn low next next weekend, but the low moves towards the Chicago area. The precipitation from that is most likely overdone. isentropic mean meridional cross section and low level jet cross section attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Lol! You need to believe your hunches and don't need no stinkin' model. (Aside: Am I correct to assume you've seen "Blazing Saddles"?). I mean with names like Goofy, Doc, Crazy Uncle, VietNAM, and UKIE, how could you possibly trust any model. In all seriousness, the models have been pretty poor, definitely including the mighty Euro. So, it wouldn't shock me if the torch following this bigtime cold will end up shortlived. One thing the models have been consistent on is this bigtime cold. I'm assuming it is coming. If not, that would be one of the worst busts in history for the SE. I believe the Doc is now known as "Shecky". So it's Goofy and Shecky. Well, I hope the cold is coming. I'm getting tired of the 40's all day. So upper 30's would be a relief, and daytime highs like we had Feb 3 years back most welcome...low 30's/upper 20's. I spent all summer two years back splitting wood, and now I want to burn it! Meanwhile the Gfs is giving me .3 coming up. I'm curious to see if I'll bust that high like the last two..especially as it recently said I'd have no rain for 10 days, and this will be water from the sky #3 T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Really surprised FFC has a 50% chance of snow almost into Central GA on Sunday night. I just don't see it happening. And possibly snow all the way into South GA ?? IF THE CAA IS STRONGER THANEXPECTED...THE RA/SN LINE MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER SOUTH INTOSOUTH CENTRAL GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Here is my forecast for the month of January 2014. With no clear signs from the oscillations, it was a very difficult forecast. That is why all of the percentages are very similar if you notice. The temperatures have almost a completely equal chance of warmer or colder than average in January, and the same is true for precipitation. Overall, this is a very difficult forecast without any clear signs from the oscillations, and we are starting of very cold with below average temperatures. This does not make the forecast any better, but here is a stab at it. But here is the forecast, which you can also find on my website: http://www.wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/252-january-2014-outlook Only issue I have with your forecast is the below average precipitation for the deep south. We have had an active southern stream so far this winter and that looks to continue. The 1-3 inches from the current storm will bring most of us down here to 25-75% of our average rainfall already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The gfs and euro ensembles are still very different in the 12-15 day range. Last nights euro ensembles took a step towards the gfs with rebuilding the epo ridge. It just takes the euro till day thirteen. The gfs does it a few days earlier. The gfs also has the trough out west moving east pretty quick, and the ridge in the east is centered over eastern Canada not a southeast ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 After a brief stay in the negative, the models are in fair agreement that we will lose our AO to the positive again. The NAO creeps into the positive range, while the PNA looks to stay neutral to positive. We need the NAO on our side, at least to give us a window for wintry precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Both the NAM and GFS agree on light freezing rain during about 6z-12z on Sunday. This could make for a mess if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Both the NAM and GFS agree on light freezing rain during about 6z-12z on Sunday. This could make for a mess if it verifies. It sure does. Here is the map at 12z on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Even FFC is talking about a rain/snow mix on Sunday night for ATL. That could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook: Not to get any hopes up but we could see some sleet/freezing rain Saturday night then change to sleet/snow on Sunday-Sunday night...This is NOT a forecast as of yet but the trend has been to increase the precipitation and even for a weak low pressure system to form over the souther SC coast...Does not appear to be a heavy event and may still not happen but just want to keep it on the radar for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It sure does. Here is the map at 12z on Sunday Where did you get this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Saw this from NC Piedmont Weather on facebook: Not to get any hopes up but we could see some sleet/freezing rain Saturday night then change to sleet/snow on Sunday-Sunday night...This is NOT a forecast as of yet but the trend has been to increase the precipitation and even for a weak low pressure system to form over the souther SC coast...Does not appear to be a heavy event and may still not happen but just want to keep it on the radar for now. Whoever that is clearly has zero clue what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=katl Times that have a map will be underlined. Toggle the ICAO code to change locations The above link is set for KATL Where did you get this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 In which forecast discussion did they say this? I read this mornings and didn't see it anywhere. I believe it was yesterday mornings. Still could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Whoever that is clearly has zero clue what they are doing.And what makes you think that? Here is NWS GSP forecast for my area here in upstate...Sunday A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. So you saying NWS has no clue as to what they are doing as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Whoever that is clearly has zero clue what they are doing. Yeah, I'm not sure how in the world one would derive a snow scenario from this. Clearly the column isn't freezing up through the snow growth zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And what makes you think that? Here is NWS GSP forecast for my area here in upstate... Sunday A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. So you saying NWS has no clue as to what they are doing as well? If they have a high of 44 Monday that is way off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bsudweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 If they have a high of 44 Monday that is way off.. They are way conservative with everything they put out. They will adjust as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 And what makes you think that? Here is NWS GSP forecast for my area here in upstate... Sunday A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sunday Night Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Monday A chance of snow. Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%. So you saying NWS has no clue as to what they are doing as well? The freezing rain is pretty likely. I'm assuming the snow pop is just for any snsh that might break containment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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