jm1220 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Srefs backed off Wednesday a bit. Time to give that one up. The flow is too progressive and the trough is positively tilted. This is one for the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Time to give that one up. The flow is too progressive and the trough is positively tilted. This is one for the deep south. It gets a little annoying when people say "give up on this one". People said that yesterday, insisting we would not even see a flake. People said that about today as well, stating we will not see any snow falling. We all know how the models have been this winter, it can all change within 24-48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Light snow in wantagh. Agreed it just wants to snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Moderate snow in Lynbrook, knowing our good luck, tomorrow will yield similar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Light Snow, dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Is this an obs thread or a January discussion thread??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It gets a little annoying when people say "give up on this one". People said that yesterday, insisting we would not even see a flake. People said that about today as well, stating we will not see any snow falling. We all know how the models have been this winter, it can all change within 24-48 hours. This one isn't happening unless there's a massive change in the handling of the trough causing the storm (it needs to become much more amplified and go to a negative tilt), and the PV can get out of the way much more so that it isn't squashing the pattern. I guess it's possible but it's very unlikely at this stage. I can't think of anyone who thought we wouldn't see a flake yesterday, I certainly wasn't one of them. I thought 1-2" and that's what happened. WAA like what is happening now can often generate snow showers. People need to start looking at the overall pattern and judge what is likely or not, instead of being weenies and expecting storms to just start appearing because of what happened last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Light snow has ended. Had a quick coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yep. Before calling for a model bust better make sure the snow's actually reaching the ground. Which model showed this disturbance coming through today? cras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 H5 has more digging to the back side this run, thats what all the other storms showed when the models started moving them more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 cras The funny thing is the CRAS was right with the other storms but then again it has every storm in the apps but you do want to see it amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is now much further NW with the precip shield @ 66... but H5 doesn't look like it will be able to get negative but overall a massive improvement wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18z GFS even better than 12z with mid week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The kicker is so much slower this run..huge change from yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS is now much further NW with the precip shield @ 66... but H5 it doesnt look like it will be able to get negative but a massive improvement wow The trough is a little sharper this run and there's ever so slightly less resistance NE of here to the precip coming north. For the amount of time we have left we need a lot to happen, but I guess it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The kicker is so much slower this run..huge change from yesterday The energy isn't sampled well. When it's becomes sampled in the future, models will lock on. They are still trending NW. With a NW trend, could be looking at a nice little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The trough is a little sharper this run and there's ever so slightly less resistance NE of here to the precip coming north. For the amount of time we have left we need a lot to happen, but I guess it's possible. Yea a lot has to go right but we are in the same time frame when the trend began with the 2 previous storms so in this pattern nothing is off the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 The energy isn't sampled well. When it's becomes sampled in the future, models will lock on. They are still trending NW. With a NW trend, could be looking at a nice little event. Yea we actually get light precip this run which is a 300 mile shift NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Straight deja vu, last Sunday the models started to trend NW for Tuesday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 this is starting to get interesting at 81 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 this is starting to get interesting at 81 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012618/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png Gotta say this was a SUBSTANTIAL NW trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm telling you, NW trend is your friend. The NAO is not in a state that would allow suppression depression. The NAO is going to go from above +1 to about 0, which indicates coastal development, which is exactly what the gfs implies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Trending I'm sure is not over. SNJ now getting in the game and midatlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm telling you, NW trend is your friend. The NAO is not in a state that would allow suppression depression. The NAO is going to go from above +1 to about 0, which indicates coastal development, which is exactly what the gfs implies. Yea I am very interested in the ensembles to see if any are even more amped and if 0z doesn't back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HUGE Shift north west with precip. ( between 00z and 18z ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yea I am very interested in the ensembles to see if any are even more amped and if 0z doesn't back off. This...Both accounts....But interesting development here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Another thing is that this system is loaded with moisture and given the huge trend from 12z to 18z, it's very possible this trends further to the NW. The trough does not have to go negative, but it'll need to sharpen up a bit more so it can go at least near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 HUGE Shift north west with precip. ( between 00z and 18z ) looks me NW and more of a profound precip field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thinking too little too late but holy cow what a shift!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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