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January Forecast Discussion

REDMK6GLI

By REDMK6GLI,
in New York City Metro

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

***Today's 18z GFS 500mb is so scarily similar to 1994 its almost shocking;***

 

 

January 8-9 1994 was an overrunning storm with precip wedged between the northern confluence. 

18z GFS 186 HRS:

post-8091-0-30561600-1390779455_thumb.gi

 

January 8-9 1994

post-8091-0-77003500-1390779483_thumb.gi

 

Few days later on the GFS the remaining energy is ejected similar to the February 11 1994 storm.

 

I am giddy right now. 

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wolfsheepsheadbay

wolfsheepsheadbay

Posted
Posted

What was so epic about it? There is fantasy storm way out in no mans land. 200 + hours

Short term looks cold and dry.  Possible event around the super bowl Sunday/Monday, but it does not look all that great imop.

 

Best.

Another debbie downer poster. All I've been reading from you since yesterday is negative posts, lol. The 12z and 18z GFS are absolutely epic period. Both show 20+" over the run. The GFS has also trended 350 miles west with the Wednesday system.  Other models have also trended between 100-150 miles west with that system today. Plenty to be optimistic about.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

***Today's 18z GFS 500mb is so scarily similar to 1994 its almost shocking;***

 

 

January 8-9 1994 was an overrunning storm with precip wedged between the northern confluence. 

18z GFS 186 HRS:

attachicon.gif186hrs.gif

 

January 8-9 1994

attachicon.gif94.gif

 

Few days later on the GFS the remaining energy is ejected similar to the February 11 1994 storm.

 

I am giddy right now. 

 

 

No offense, but you always seem giddy when looking at these models.  :snowing:

 

I will keep hope, but until I see it short range and Mt Holly NWS or Upton NWS is honking, I will remain pessimistic.

Anything over 4 to 5 days is to far out to start sounding alarms

 

Best

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

Another debbie downer poster. All I've been reading from you since yesterday is negative posts, lol. The 12z and 18z GFS are absolutely epic period. Both show 20+" over the run. The GFS has also trended 350 miles west with the Wednesday system.  Other models have also trended between 100-150 miles west with that system today. Plenty to be optimistic about.

 

 

These threats are all out over 7 days. Just trying to keep it real.

 

Best.

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user13

user13

Posted
Posted

Yes, it is warmer to what is occurring now.

As noted, it can still snow in a warmer pattern.

 

Best.

Today's 18z run looks nothing like runs from yesterday, we barley get above freezing during the entire run... Thats why you take 200+ hours with a grain of salt and look towards the ens for some guidance. But seeing storm chances is a good sign

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

No offense, but you always seem giddy when looking at these models.  :snowing:

 

I will keep hope, but until I see it short range and Mt Holly NWS or Upton NWS is honking, I will remain pessimistic.

Anything over 4 to 5 days is to far out to start sounding alarms

 

Best

I wouldn't rely on them to start honking for quite  a while - both very conservative operations - we don't have to be conservative around here - this is all for fun ....

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Dino

Dino

Posted
Posted

This is NOT from the New York Area - I took this from the Annapolis,MD discussion - very brief mention of the thinking behind this storm.  I know it's not for us, but its good to see that there's discussion about the NW trend. 

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND
EXITS NORTHEAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM
WILL LIKELY IMPACT GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND ANY ALTERATION OF ITS TRACK FARTHER
NORTH/WEST WILL GREATLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE
ONLY SLIGHT TRENDS BACK NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE NOT
MODIFIED FORECAST OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WITH SUNSHINE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A SLOW MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND IN
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

The fact that the GEFS showed a significant N&W trend makes me far more intrigued about this because at least it has some support. Now is the gfs more fluky than anything, maybe but we are within 3 days of this so you'd expect accuracy to go up. We're also in the time frame when the past storm trended much more favorably for us so we'll just have to see if there's a repeat. 

 

This won't be a classic coastal with a rapidly intensifying low pressure off the east coast, but that's okay when we're talking about this much moisture getting involved from the Gulf/Atlantic and an immense temperature gradient providing ample energy to this. Not to make any comparisons to February 2003 because this is a completely different scenario but that low wasn't very strong either, I believe it was only 1008 mbs at its strongest. 

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

This is NOT from the New York Area - I took this from the Annapolis,MD discussion - very brief mention of the thinking behind this storm.  I know it's not for us, but its good to see that there's discussion about the NW trend. 

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE FIRMLY IN PLACE WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE

MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENS AND

EXITS NORTHEAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM

WILL LIKELY IMPACT GEORGIA...THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA ON

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND ANY ALTERATION OF ITS TRACK FARTHER

NORTH/WEST WILL GREATLY CHANGE THE FORECAST. AT THIS POINT THERE ARE

ONLY SLIGHT TRENDS BACK NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO HAVE NOT

MODIFIED FORECAST OTHER THAN INCREASING CLOUD COVER. DRY HIGH

PRESSURE WITH SUNSHINE WILL THEN ALLOW FOR A SLOW MODERATION OF

TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE

WEEK. MODELS DIVERGE AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES NEXT WEEKEND IN

CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM

WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.

thats called leaving the door open for changes in the next day or 2 - the 0Z NAM is next up at about 9:30 the storm will be in its range but still outside its most accurate range - then the GFS at 10:30 and the GEFS about midnight then the Euro between 1 and 2 - going to be a long night ahead especially if the NW tend continues

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Look at the mechanics of the trough/PV/kicker, etc, on the model runs and then understand why the precip creeps north and west instead of looking at the surface QPF panel only. When I look at the model runs, the surface panel is usually the last one I look at, as QPF is historically very tricky and often wrong. When you look at the upper air panels, you'll see why this still needs a good amount of help in order to make it an event up to NYC. It's a situation that favors the Carolinas and probably the Delmarva. They can do very well with a positively tilted trough, suppressive PV and loads of moisture being transported from the Gulf over that cold air. We will at least need for the trough to go neutral tilt by the time it makes it to just past the Mississippi Valley, and for the vort energy to be consolidated, not sheared out as models have been showing. That will cause the low to strengthen quicker due to a more consolidated and stronger upper air system allowing better divergence aloft, and more intake from the Gulf will cause the system to take a more westerly track. Then it would be helpful for the trough to continue consolidating and maybe even go negative tilt. The PV retreating a little would also help, as it would not block a track north, and we need the kicker to remain as far removed from the storm as possible. Last week's storm leapt out at us, so it's possible here, but you can't judge this storm's likelihood by that one as this is a different setup than the storm last week.

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user13

user13

Posted
Posted

The fact that the GEFS showed a significant N&W trend makes me far more intrigued about this because at least it has some support. Now is the gfs more fluky than anything, maybe but we are within 3 days of this so you'd expect accuracy to go up. We're also in the time frame when the past storm trended much more favorably for us so we'll just have to see if there's a repeat. 

Yae 0z will be huge i would like to see another 50+ mile trend NW at this point and More H5 improvement.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

A very dangerous storm for places like Pensacola Florida.

 

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING]...SIGNIFICANT WINTER

WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A POWERFUL

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY

EVENING...BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SUBFREEZING

TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...MOST OF THE AREA CAN EXPECT A MIX OF

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL

BE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL

BE FREEZING RAIN...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO SNOW AS A SERIES OF

STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREE ACROSS

THE AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH THAT A WINTER STORM WARNING

WILL BE UPCOMING. POTENTIALLY WE COULD SEE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF ICE

COATING THE ROADS...BRIDGES...POWER LINES AND TREES. THIS MIXED

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW NORTH

OF A LINE FROM HATTIESBURG MISSISSIPPI TO ANDALUSIA ALABAMA TUESDAY

EVENING...AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AFTER

MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN ADDITION

TO THE ICE...COVERING THE ICE ALREADY IN PLACE. THE TRACK OF THEUPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS

WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MISSISSIPPI TO GREENVILLE

ALABAMA...WHERE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATIONS

ARE POSSIBLE. LIFE THREATENING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.

IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED NOT TO TRAVEL IN THESE CONDITIONS.

 

 

attachicon.gifprec.png

You would knick down every power line

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alwaysready126

alwaysready126

Posted
Posted

Time for everyone to read this again - Boxing Day 2010 thread beginning exactly where we are right now around 72 - 84 hours away and as you recall the Boxing Day storm was a coastal I-95 scraper areas west of central NJ got very little

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5495-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-4/page-2

This redundant comparison to BD STORM without any hard evidence has to stop

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

Posted
Posted

Time for everyone to read this again - Boxing Day 2010 thread beginning exactly where we are right now around 72 - 84 hours away and as you recall the Boxing Day storm was a coastal I-95 scraper areas west of central NJ got very little

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/5495-nycphl-dec-26-27-potential-part-4/page-2

 

This is a completely different setup but similar how the models were all east and then they came back. Good read.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

This redundant comparison to BD STORM without any hard evidence has to stop

I wasn't comparing this storm to Boxing Day - the point was we have to keep an open mind in these situations because this is a close call - nothing is impossible - although I will not commit to this storm having much of an impact here yet unless the trending continues in future model runs ............

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