Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Another thing is that this system is loaded with moisture and given the huge trend from 12z to 18z, it's very possible this trends further to the NW. The trough does not have to go negative, but it'll need to sharpen up a bit more so it can go at least near neutral. Or a combination of a little more shift NW and maybe a more expansive precip shield might do it (plenty of moisture to work with, plus models have been trending wetter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 could this weeks storm be a repeat of this ? http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/major_snowstorm_ambushes_washi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It phases with the baja low which is the reason it ends up coming NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Need this kicker to slow by another 6 hours. Will get better sampled by 12 z tomorrow Then you will get a clears pic of how much separation there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 someone have the nerve to start a thread for this threat if the ensembles show another shift NW since this thread has 50 pages already ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This looks quite a bit like 1/27/11. By that, I mean the Southern and Northern Vort phasing while entering East of the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This looks quite a bit like 1/27/11. By that, I mean the Southern and Northern Vort phasing while entering East of the Mississippi River. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Jan-11-SurfaceMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hail Mary update...(may have been discussed earlier today)... looks like 3 of the GEFS members from 12z brought measurable to NYC. The wettest was maybe a tenth or two.. The mean is still way offshore with precip. 5 or 6 of the 9z SREF members brought measurable (only 1 significant) with a mean of a few mm. 15z SREF backed of slightly. I'm curious what the 18z GEFS will look like. This clearly still has a long way to go. Recently the GFS and SREF have been too far NW with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Hail Mary update...(may have been discussed earlier today)... looks like 3 of the GEFS members from 12z brought measurable to NYC. The wettest was maybe a tenth or two.. The mean is still way offshore with precip. 5 or 6 of the 9z SREF members brought measurable (only 1 significant) with a mean of a few mm. 15z SREF backed of slightly. I'm curious what the 18z GEFS will look like. This clearly still has a long way to go. Recently the GFS and SREF have been too far NW with precip. this is the 12Z GEFS and if this shifts northwest by as much as the OP at 18Z did - we are in the game for sure and thats when a new thread should be created http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I agree that the midweek system is still kind of a long shot, but fingers crossed for more improvements tonight. There's plenty more out there if this doesn't work out though, the 18z gfs is nearly a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I agree that the midweek system is still kind of a long shot, but fingers crossed for more improvements tonight. There's plenty more out there if this doesn't work out though, the 18z gfs is nearly a weenie run. Yea seriously its just storm after storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This looks quite a bit like 1/27/11. By that, I mean the Southern and Northern Vort phasing while entering East of the Mississippi River. Really? The 1/27/11 storm had a closed low at H5 in the se, strongly negatively tilted, with a ton of vorticity driving the surface low up the coast.. I dont see much similarity between that and this one escaping east this week. Compare: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What time do the GEFS come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really? The 1/27/11 storm had a closed low at H5 in the se, strongly negatively tilted, with a ton of vorticity driving the surface low up the coast.. I dont see much similarity between that and this one escaping east this week. Compare: The point is that it's getting there. The difference is that the kicker is more involved in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 What time do the GEFS come out? its out to 48 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012618/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 So how do you guys remember all these storms from years ago? I can't even remember what I had for breakfast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z GEFS 78 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012618/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z GEFS 78 hrs http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012618/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png Yup, north and west. The .5-.75 is at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in MD -- previous runs had it near Hatteras. Highzenberg pointed out that the there is phasing occurring with the Baja low. Furthermore, there's energy coming south east into the Gulf as well which is contributing to the low taking a more northwesterly track. You can see it happening in your link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Are temp going to be an issue???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 18Z GEFS 90 Hrs. another shift NW http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012618/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_15.png IF this keeps trending at 0Z and 6Z time for another thread - I am not ready to commit to this yet - hope the NAM and Euro trend too but if this run verifies we are in the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Talk about a N&W shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Are temp going to be an issue???? no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRS_18z/f84.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lol ginx wolf. Anyway there are many members that bring our area precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Lol ginx wolf. Anyone there are many members that bring our area precip Not just precip man. BM TRACKS! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Not just precip man. BM TRACKS! lol. about 7 solid hits on those individual members - not bad and a few light hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Really? The 1/27/11 storm had a closed low at H5 in the se, strongly negatively tilted, with a ton of vorticity driving the surface low up the coast.. I dont see much similarity between that and this one escaping east this week. Compare: This is nothing like 1/27/11-for one the energy on that storm was much more intense and compact than this will be-it's essentially a massive overrunning system this time, a very suppressed SWFE. That storm also was the end point of the record west based NAO blocking episode we had that month and Dec 2010. We need a lot to happen for us to receive anything meaningful from this event at our latitude. The confluence needs to erode a lot more over Maine and SE Canada, and the trough needs to be more consolidated and take on a neutral and negative tilt. I don't think we have time enough left for those things to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 P003 Please! Still mostly misses but definitely getting better. I would definitely be paying attention if I lived in the Delmarva or even up to SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yup, north and west. The .5-.75 is at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in MD -- previous runs had it near Hatteras. Highzenberg pointed out that the there is phasing occurring with the Baja low. Furthermore, there's energy coming south east into the Gulf as well which is contributing to the low taking a more northwesterly track. You can see it happening in your link. There is also more separation between the trough and kicker NW of it, allowing it to dig more and take a more amplified track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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