PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS sees a 1037 HP Nosing itself into N AL .Only one thing gona happen if that's true . You need to change that look and hope the GFS is pressing the cold too far South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS looks like garbage for the 29th system. Completely different than the NAM, GGEM, SREFs, Navgem. GFS is demonstrating one of its biases at this range missing the southern stream energy strongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is a great point. The trends were better this morning throughout most models so the GFS with the bias its recent solution most likely may not be plausible after all. And Paul i agree RGEM will be better under 96 hours out The RGEM only goes out to 48 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Yes, there is no vort separation to start off. Without that, we're not gonna get the sharper trough. NEG NAO did bring up a good point though with its southern stream bias. Also the EURO "should" be better with Miller A systems so 12z run should be interesting, although not too enthusiastic with its track record this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The GFS sees a 1037 HP Nosing itself into N AL .Only one thing gona happen if that's true . You need to change that look and hope the GFS is pressing the cold too far South another GFS bias over doing the northern stream energy which is one reason why its crushes the southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The RGEM only goes out to 48 hours... oops sorry just cut my time period in half haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 another GFS bias over doing the northern stream energy Biases, biases everywhere! Lol. Both biases i strongly agree on as well. This run i would just keep in the back of the head i dont think we're getting HP down to N AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12Z GFS does have the trough a bit sharper than the 06Z GFS. That's mainly due to a slightly better vort separation. Overall the run is slightly better, but still looks like a strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12Z GFS does have the trough a bit sharper than the 06Z GFS. That's mainly due to a slightly better vort separation. Overall the run is slightly better, but still looks like a strung out mess. the baroclinic zone on the gfs is way too far off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 12Z GFS does have the trough a bit sharper than the 06Z GFS. That's mainly due to a slightly better vort separation. Overall the run is slightly better, but still looks like a strung out mess. trends are good so far overall if you take into account some other models - need the EURO to start getting on board more - good news is we still have plenty of time - we also need these next 2 systems too clear the playing field to see where they end up downstream and maybe get more blocking - also the GEFS has been more northwest of the OP the last few runs a good signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The gfs shows barely anything to the point where I don't even know where to look. Is it 96 hrs out, is it some of that energy 120 hrs out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 12z GGEM is more progressive with the mid week storm. Not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 EURO show initiate in about 10 minutes, whos going to be doing PbP and posting here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 EURO show initiate in about 10 minutes, whos going to be doing PbP and posting here? If we are looking at 96 hrs out on the ECM it is cold and dry across the region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 29th threat is looking less and less likely. Let's hope the -AO builds quickly so we can cash in beginning next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The 29th threat is looking less and less likely. Let's hope the -AO builds quickly so we can cash in beginning next weekend. Yeh man I just never like the midweek. When I see snow in hHouston and sea island GA I smell compression. I like Sunday better. I think Sundays system is prob snow and ice. I like the press from the neg EPO and with so much n stream energy u may get a well time n branch feature to help the feature heading out of tx I don't buy the strong SE ridge on the Euro. MJO prob heading into 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is what **COULD** happen without a negative NAO at the end of next week http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 well, the GFS is showing a rain storm next weekend....hopefully wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is loaded with lakes cutters and basically says our overload of cold air is done with soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is loaded with lakes cutters and basically says our overload of cold air is done with soon This is our great snow pattern! We may get some snow NW next weekend, but looks warm going into February. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This is our great snow pattern! We may get some snow NW next weekend, but looks warm going into February. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Give me a break, the gfs showed a torch about a week ago starting the end of January. Let things play out before jumping to conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Give me a break, the gfs showed a torch about a week ago starting the end of January. Let things play out before jumping to conclusions. We are clearly going to warmer pattern. This is okay, it can still snow. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Ok yes warmer, but you made it sound like a torch was coming. There will be snow as long as EPO is negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We are clearly going to warmer pattern. This is okay, it can still snow. Best This clarification was necessary, as what you said initially, did not come across as optimistic about snow. So long as the -EPO remains active, we will see periodic shots of cold air through the end of winter, especially met winter. If we can lock in a -AO for a period of time, February could be memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 We are clearly going to warmer pattern. This is okay, it can still snow. Best Looks like the Superbowl will not have real arctic air to deal with thats the only thing certain right now so temps should be above 20 degrees - the question now is precip - type and amount..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the Superbowl will not have real arctic air to deal with thats the only thing certain right now so temps should be above 20 degrees - the question now is precip - type and amount..... ESPN says mid 30s and an 80% chance of a 'wintry mix' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 ESPN says mid 30s and an 80% chance of a 'wintry mix' They can't even get the sports predictions right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 They can't even get the sports predictions right... LOL, William. Quite true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This is our great snow pattern! We may get some snow NW next weekend, but looks warm going into February. Best No one forecasted a great SNOW pattern , we all said this was a great 2 - 3 week pattern . In total we should finish with a 10 day period which averages about 15 below normal ( quite cold ) and including today there has been between 10 to 15 inches of snow inside a week in most places Now if you were expecting more than that , shouldnt have . We live near a coastal plain at 40 N No cold pattern EVER is wire to wire and COLD doesnt equal Snow . So if FEB is wet not white , that happens in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.