IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Based on the trends for the previous KUs, we need to see a lock as early as Sunday Night through Tuesday Night, with a general consensus by Wednesday Morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Based on the trends for the previous KUs, we need to see a lock as early as Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night, with a general consensus by Thursday Morning. I think we'll see that. This storm is literally a few steps away from being just that, buckle up for the next several days my friend. Me and wolf are riding this train till it arrives or derails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not saying trend to an all out MECS/HECS blizzard by sunday but trending in that direction though through most model we have learned this winter that we have to have alot of patience with these storms - this is not one of those winters where storms show up many days before - and the models just fine tune them from there - also I would not anticipate that this will become a HECS - chances of that are not great thats why they are called HECS - this storm right now has a chance to be a SECS - thats about all we can expect right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 NAM not budging on it's idea for the storm, even Inside of 66 hours where it's a lot better than 84 hours it's showing precip way north of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 SNOWGOOSE - How far north at 66 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Its really digging the energy this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The northern H5 vort is seriously digging through HR 66 on the 12Z NAM. The Precip shield is going as far north as the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a little better separation between sw's, I'm still interested in mid-week, too far out to give up on just yet. If it doesn't look any better by tomorrow, thats another story. We just want to keep seeing improvements, not the opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a little better separation between sw's, I'm still interested in mid-week, too far out to give up on just yet. If it doesn't look any better by tomorrow, thats another story. We just want to keep seeing improvements, not the oppositewell, improvement number one noted. ..lets see what the gfs shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Looks like a little better separation between sw's, I'm still interested in mid-week, too far out to give up on just yet. If it doesn't look any better by tomorrow, thats another story. We just want to keep seeing improvements, not the opposite Do you mean the separation between the NW Atlantic Vort and the Upper Midwest Vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Could be wrong, maybe slower? It's the nam anyway, GFS will be more telling IMO, but at least it doesn't look worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The RGEM looks more NAM like than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 The RGEM looks more NAM like than GFS Thats great news so the trends are more digging that is a great start to the weekend. GFS should initiate in another 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The RGEM looks more NAM like than GFSmap? I thought the rgem only went to 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Srefs was one of the first to show the last storm so the next few runs need to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Here's the comparison: 12Z NAM: 12Z RGEM: The NW Atlantic Vort is moving out faster on the 12Z RGEM than the 12Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 My chances for this storm go down to 20% from 30% yesterday because the cold air may be too overwhelming to get a storm to come up here, and the trough looks quite positive for anything major for us. This could be a good storm down south though like the Carolinas. I would need to see some significant positive trends for me to think otherwise and the 06z Nam looked better than the 12z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 My chances for this storm go down to 20% from 30% yesterday because the cold air may be too overwhelming to get a storm to come up here, and the trough looks quite positive for anything major for us. This could be a good storm down south though like the Carolinas. I would need to see some significant positive trends for me to think otherwise and the 06z Nam looked better than the 12z Nam. Actually, the 12Z NAM looks better than the 06Z NAM for two solid reasons. 1. The 06Z NAM has a weaker 50/50 Low, while the 12Z NAM has a stronger 50/50 Low. 2. The 06Z NAM doesn't has a solid H5 Vort Low, ejecting out of the Upper Midwest, while the 12Z NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 My chances for this storm go down to 20% from 30% yesterday because the cold air may be too overwhelming to get a storm to come up here, and the trough looks quite positive for anything major for us. This could be a good storm down south though like the Carolinas. I would need to see some significant positive trends for me to think otherwise and the 06z Nam looked better than the 12z Nam. too early to be throwing in the towel my friend. This a Miller A, if it turns the corner and comes up the coast it'll deliver the goods to you as well. Be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 too early to be throwing in the towel my friend. This a Miller A, if it turns the corner and comes up the coast it'll deliver the goods to you as well. Be patient Not throwing in the towel, just lowering my chances that's all. I see the baroclinic zone being pushed further east on the 12z Nam as the cold is more expansive and I don't see a stronger 50/50 but it's the nam at 78 hrs so why over analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Not throwing in the towel, just lowering my chances that's all. Read the comment above as why lower the chances, based on your OBS may not be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 too early to be throwing in the towel my friend. This a Miller A, if it turns the corner and comes up the coast it'll deliver the goods to you as well. Be patient Not throwing in the towel, just lowering my chances that's all. unclear why u r lowering chances when in general the models are trending in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS and Nam show a light snowfall for the area with the coldfront for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS looks like garbage for the 29th system. Completely different than the NAM, GGEM, SREFs, Navgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Fwiw the gfs is wetter for today's event. Gives a tenth of an inch qpf now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS looks like garbage for the 29th system. Completely different than the NAM, GGEM, SREFs, Navgem. LOL what does it totally flatten it out compared to the other models? Also the RGEM looked better as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL what does it totally flatten it out compared to the other models? Also the RGEM looked better as well Yes, there is no vort separation to start off. Without that, we're not gonna get the sharper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 LOL what does it totally flatten it out compared to the other models? Also the RGEM looked better as well Better used in the short term , not out this far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS looks like garbage for the 29th system. Completely different than the NAM, GGEM, SREFs, Navgem. GFS is demonstrating one of its biases at this range missing the southern stream energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 GFS is demonstrating one of its biases at this range missing the southern stream energy This is a great point. The trends were better this morning throughout most models so the GFS with the bias its recent solution most likely may not be plausible after all. And Paul i agree RGEM will be better under 96 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.