Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 21z SREFs sliced back...hopefully that isn't the 00z trend. I love the look of this NAM run through the first 18. May not come together but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 . This ought to be good. or complete crap . Im ready for either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 or complete crap . Im ready for either It's going to try to stir up a potent low it looks to me...again NAM is nearing the end of its useful run at 24 hours, but yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 It's going to try to stir up a potent low it looks to me...again NAM is nearing the end of its useful run at 24 hours, but yikes. Its def gonna be better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think it's going to be way better by the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 NAM is a nice hit for ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Thanks. Have to prepare for the impending delay or cancelation of school panic for 2" of snow. ridiculous ain't it? Same ol crap here too, every time (although last Tue they did not cancel at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Nam looks decent. Colder this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Second s/w is better again although the first one is still in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Second s/w is better again although the first one is still in the way. The 2nd one is not going to be the player in this unless something drastically changes in this close. We'll want to hope the first one is strong. Too bad because the 2nd one is a beast...and we'd probably get a like a 8-12" storm out of it if it weren't for the front runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 2nd one is not going to be the player in this unless something drastically changes in this close. We'll want to hope the first one is strong. Too bad because the 2nd one is a beast...and we'd probably get a like a 8-12" storm out of it if it weren't for the front runner. I'd rather not the first. The first initiates it, but we may not have a choice. The GFS really was trying to get more influence from the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 2nd one is not going to be the player in this unless something drastically changes in this close. We'll want to hope the first one is strong. Too bad because the 2nd one is a beast...and we'd probably get a like a 8-12" storm out of it if it weren't for the front runner. NAM has those amazing changes in the last 6 hours but it's still not quite enough. BUT it may be so far behind the curve Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Baggy pressure field. Second s/w trying, but the first one is dominating cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 ridiculous ain't it? Same ol crap here too, every time (although last Tue they did not cancel at all) We got the cancel last week, although the roads were slippery and we have some steep hills in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 I'd rather not the first. The first initiates it, but we may not have a choice. The GFS really was trying to get more influence from the second. Yeah I think we have no choice...as long as the first one even exists, it is going to tighten the mid-level baroclinic zone up and the conditions behind it are shot for the 2nd shortwave...nothing really to work with. Maybe we get lucky and the models totally screw it up this close, but I'll keep expectations in the advisory range...and hope we get a Dec '97, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 2nd one is not going to be the player in this unless something drastically changes in this close. We'll want to hope the first one is strong. Too bad because the 2nd one is a beast...and we'd probably get a like a 8-12" storm out of it if it weren't for the front runner. Hasnt the first one been trending weaker all day, or at least w diminishing the mid pm "thump" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Looks like .25-.5" for all except Cape Ann which gets a little over .5" maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Lol Pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I will gladly throw check downs to Jamaal, nickel and dime our way down the field..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 6 hours ago the NAM was pounding Maine with a 997 or 8 mb low at 36+..now it's a weak low with a trailer. I like where this is going...NAM is probably late getting to the party. May see some exotic solutions overnight, 0z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah I think we have no choice...as long as the first one even exists, it is going to tighten the mid-level baroclinic zone up and the conditions behind it are shot for the 2nd shortwave...nothing really to work with. Maybe we get lucky and the models totally screw it up this close, but I'll keep expectations in the advisory range...and hope we get a Dec '97, lol. Ha, one can hope...but I'm just hoping for an advisory as well. I think it may really rip for a couple of hours. The lift progged looks good and it may be a bit unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah I think we have no choice...as long as the first one even exists, it is going to tighten the mid-level baroclinic zone up and the conditions behind it are shot for the 2nd shortwave...nothing really to work with. Maybe we get lucky and the models totally screw it up this close, but I'll keep expectations in the advisory range...and hope we get a Dec '97, lol. Yeah. Whats interesting is the 2nd s/w is digging enough to help the 1st one track closer to the coast. At least it's not kicking it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think we plan on seeing snow overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. NAM be damned I suspect we're in for a longer duration event than the NAM has and more in line with what the 18z GFS was suggesting. NAM we toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah I think we have no choice...as long as the first one even exists, it is going to tighten the mid-level baroclinic zone up and the conditions behind it are shot for the 2nd shortwave...nothing really to work with. Maybe we get lucky and the models totally screw it up this close, but I'll keep expectations in the advisory range...and hope we get a Dec '97, lol. Will, what was so special about that set-up that yielded such ridiculous snowfall rates? On general glance it looks like your typical SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I still like my map from yesterday with 2-4'' for much of the region with 4-6'' for a chunk of RI and eastern MA with the exception of the Cape. Pretty nice VV's at 925/850/700 move in and increasing LLJ should throw back even more moisture into the system. Like the somewhat unstable look to the soundings as well...perhaps not enough to warrant any thundersnow, but enough to make for some pockets of heavier rates. Perhaps the 6'' of the scale will be tough to verify but some spots may be able to squeak close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 The 2nd one is not going to be the player in this unless something drastically changes in this close. We'll want to hope the first one is strong. Too bad because the 2nd one is a beast...and we'd probably get a like a 8-12" storm out of it if it weren't for the front runner. Yeah there's definitely some beta-synoptic scale interference in there ... This 00z run does have a little sharper lead s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Will, what was so special about that set-up that yielded such ridiculous snowfall rates? On general glance it looks like your typical SWFE. We've been asking that question for years and nobody really knows...its really unknown as to why the amounts were so extreme. (different from, say, a 1-3" storm turning into a 8-10" fluff bomb) There may have been gravity waves involved, but that alone isn't exactly satisfactory. I do like the instability progged in the current system...so I won't be surprised if some pretty intense rates are seen few a lucky few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Does the nam torch the BL in se mass The 18z 4km nam had cape Ann in low 40's at 8pm and ray in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Yeah there's definitely some beta-synoptic scale interference in there ... This 00z run does have a little sharper lead s/w Take a look at the 500mb progs centered on 12z Wednesday. About as massive a change as you'll ever see in this tight (nam etc). Models are having a really hard time figuring out the first s/w is going to get squashed by the 2nd. GFS I bet is game on tonight...maybe a few other models too. The first impulse will ramp up some snow...the low will slow as it waits for the more potent energy to dig down. I think there's a decent chance now we see snow continuing right into Wednesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Does the nam torch the BL in se mass The 18z 4km nam had cape Ann in low 40's at 8pm and ray in the teens Yes, but further SE than your description ofthe 18z run. The freezing line barely makes it to a TAN-MQE line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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