CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 scooter - on your images...yellow and red are what, again? lol Sorry..should have explained. Solid yellow = 850-700mb critical thickness Solid red = 1000-850 critical thickness. Solid grey is 32F isotherm dashed yellow = 850mb temps in degree C every 5C. Dashed blue is the 0C isotherm. White = MSLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 His 6z interpretation looks correct to me. I see the H85 0C at the MA/CT border to GHG. 9z it's from MPM to BOS. He said it's tickling Boston at 1:30 am. You just reiterated what I said....4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 He said it's tickling Boston at 1:30 am. You just reiterated what I said....4am. Reading comprehension FTL for me, but it's definitely not south of Kev at 6z. By 00z tonight's runs it'll be up to Will by 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 it really is too bad there isn't even a pubic hair worth of blocking. imagine locking in that HP north of Maine with this thing coming up from the south? That's about the only reason I think why this high pressure (1040mb worth!) gets bodily handled by this comparatively weaker low coming up from the S, and as you say... Confluence pretty much dissolves right on cue... It's the plight of the -EPO/-PNA/+NAO winter .... But yeah, if any blocking at all and this thing would have slowed down and just been a perfect snow-machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 you can see how the 1000-850 thickness lags the 850-700 by a decent amount...that is def a sleet signal for a few hours at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Been away for the day and everybody's taking about warmth now gettin into NH. What's the damage? Are totals affected or are we still good for 10-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Reading comprehension FTL for me, but it's definitely not south of Kev at 6z. By 00z tonight's runs it'll be up to Will by 6z. For some reason, I always picture Kevin further north. Maybe it's his self perceived climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's about the only reason I think why this high pressure (1040mb worth!) gets bodily handled by this comparatively weaker low coming up from the S, and as you say... Confluence pretty much dissolves right on cue... It's the plight of the -EPO/-PNA/+NAO winter .... But yeah, if any blocking at all and this thing would have slowed down and just been a perfect snow-machine Sorry for the OT but do you see any signs of blocking in the LR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Been away for the day and everybody's taking about warmth now gettin into NH. What's the damage? Are totals affected or are we still good for 10-12"? Little to no damage for your backyard imho, I think you're going to get crushed. Maybe a brief period of IP up there but not until after most of the meaningful snowfall has fallen. I think the warmth/north trend is more for CT and around my back yard on south east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's about the only reason I think why this high pressure (1040mb worth!) gets bodily handled by this comparatively weaker low coming up from the S, and as you say... Confluence pretty much dissolves right on cue... It's the plight of the -EPO/-PNA/+NAO winter .... But yeah, if any blocking at all and this thing would have slowed down and just been a perfect snow-machine I'm not so sure. If we had substantial blocking with such a true arctic air mass, this system would have been suppressed much further south. Think like 2009-2010. It might have panned out for the mid-atlantic like some of the long range runs had on this event early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 For some reason, I always picture Kevin further north. Maybe it's his self perceived climo... Well it always changes. During wind/tropical events he is ENE...during winter storms he is the interior/N CT (unless it's a Cape special...then he's ENE). And then with squalls/WINDEX he is WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not true. H85 line ay 6Z south of you and Kevin. It gets to Boston at 9z and just to pike then. Looks way faster on this sites paid graphics. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 it really is too bad there isn't even a pubic hair worth of blocking. imagine locking in that HP north of Maine with this thing coming up from the south? No, don't want to imagine that If there was blocking this storm would've been a mid-Atlantic storm, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm not so sure. If we had substantial blocking with such a true arctic air mass, this system would have been suppressed much further south. Think like 2009-2010. It might have panned out for the mid-atlantic like some of the long range runs had on this event early on. well yeah...we never really want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Sorry for the OT but do you see any signs of blocking in the LR? Good question for the December pattern-related thread. You may want to move it, and this answer, there: Technically the -EPO is a NE Pacific blocking pattern. Other than that, no, not really. Have to keep in mind, the NAO is fickle. It can change rather abruptly with less predictive skill. For now ... it is positive out to the end of week two at both the CPC and the CDC (the primer being that a -NAO is synonymous with blocking in the N/NW Atlantic). I suppose everything being unfair in the game of weather ... the upshot is that the EPO remains negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Looks way faster on this sites paid graphics. FWIW. I have those bit I find storm vista pretty accurate...though apparently there is some dissonance at 12 hours this run as I have the h85 0 line just north of the canal running west bisecting ct/rei with half of each above and below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm not so sure. If we had substantial blocking with such a true arctic air mass, this system would have been suppressed much further south. Think like 2009-2010. It might have panned out for the mid-atlantic like some of the long range runs had on this event early on. Possibly...sure. Sometimes suppression is too great. There are plenty of examples, however, where blocking was "in the right measure." You're talking about putting too much sugar in recipe; we are idealizing the better ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Fwiw e-wall agrees with sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I have those bit I find storm vista pretty accurate...though apparently there is some dissonance at 12 hours this run as I have the h85 0 line just north of the canal running west bisecting ct/rei with half of each above and below. That doesn't look like bisecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM does get awfully mild by 06z - that would be a pretty solid thump of sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 No, don't want to imagine that If there was blocking this storm would've been a mid-Atlantic storm, lol. This is the 2nd post like this -- not necessarily true. We've had slow moving monsters here with -NAO's before.. Problem here is the tendency to think in absolutes. There is a spectra of relative circumstance and how they all play out in time. Blocking "at all" should not immediately imply M/A versus N/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM does get awfully mild by 06z - that would be a pretty solid thump of sleet, freezing rain, and rain. It has HFD over to plain rain by 9z and it's pretty close at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Possibly...sure. Sometimes suppression is too great. There are plenty of examples, however, where blocking was "in the right measure." You're talking about putting too much sugar in recipe; we are idealizing the better ratio. Haha ok I gotcha! Yea The raging +NAO hasn't really helped "lock" in cold air. I should also add that I am originally from the SC, which may be why when I think of -NAO events, I think of big huge blocks which would help out the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 This is the 2nd post like this -- not necessarily true. We've had slow moving monsters here with -NAO's before.. Problem here is the tendency to think in absolutes. There is a spectra of relative circumstance and how they all play out in time. Blocking "at all" should not immediately imply M/A versus N/E. Blocking is great...just not when the blocking is so strong the jet is suppressed down to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That doesn't look like bisecting. This actually looks closer to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 He said it's tickling Boston at 1:30 am. You just reiterated what I said....4am. Here's the blow up..at the rate it's moving it's pushing towards the city not long after. 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I guess latitude and longitude will help me out a little in delaying the taint, but taint it will. Surface temps have remained pretty cool here all day. Midnight high was 8.5. 7.4/2. Edit--it might blow through so fast it's minimal. Tood bad the speed will impede accumulatinos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 The "cold tuck" on this will be interesting as that low bumps into it overnight... haha. It's like "move!" "No, you move!" "No, you move!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 By 9z it's almost into VT...tickles over around Boston...32f at ground is pretty far inland. Again it's the NAM, but this is yet again warmer than the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Coastal front starting to show its hand. East winds at PVC, GHG, and FMH, but winds are still northerly at BOS, TAN, and EWB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.