Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 99 light to mod snow continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't get why Upton still has NYC getting up to 40* during the storm..even though they said today's runs were colder. On yesterday's forecast, NYC was forecast to reach 40 as well... Also, on which day next week could NYC get to single digits according to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 105 it has changed to sleet/ice around the city. Primary gets up to ohio transferring to coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I took a closer look at the Euro to see if maybe its reason for being more south was that it was holding the energy over the SW too long but it does not, at 84 hours it more or less agrees with the GFS with placement over OK/TX...evolution thereafter is different, DT says he thinks the Euro is wrong due to the lack of the -NAO but an interesting note is the NAM at 84 hours is not more noably amped or north than the GFS...thi is a great comparison to use to sometimes tell when the GFS may be too far north or south with an event, you should see the NAM be decently NW of it at 84 hours, if you do not it likely means the GFS is too far north though not always...with today's event when the NAM was markedly more inland at 84 hours than the GFS it led me to believe we had a good chance of seeing snow. So is DTs thinking the Center winds up further west ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Hr 108 low forms over Delmarva. We are raining, far nw jersey is having ice issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 18z GFS is another snow to ice job for the interior. It's slightly warmer than 12z and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Big snowstorm for upstate NY this run. Nice front end dump for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I know you don't want to analyze every run, precip type, etc. --- but holy ICE on the GFS for NW NJ and the Hudson Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I counted 12 hours of ZR north of 80 and west of 287 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gfs is fast with the system...makes sense with no block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 If you count in the over running it's not a fast storm at all. Begins 18z Saturday and ends 18z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 18z GFS snowmaps show 0 for anyone south of southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 As some in here would like to say, it's the 18z, throw it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 18z GFS snowmaps show 0 for anyone south of southern New England. Because its prob seeing all ice .check the soundings . non of the surfaces around here at 108 or 120 are torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 As some in here would like to say, it's the 18z, throw it out I have that mentality although many METS say it doesn't make sense to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 I have that mentality although many METS say it doesn't make sense to do that.Statisticalky 18z runs are just as good as other runs. The idea that they use old data is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Right now the difference that's sticks out in my mind is the Euro and GFS both come off East at the Delmarva the Euro is already at 995 and gets to 985 SE of Boston The GFS is a 1000 MB low all the way to the BM . The Euro is stronger and mayb using dynamics to cool the column . The Highs are in the same location 1036 vs 1037 - so no difference , they come off the same - head to the BM NO other glaring difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Major ice storm on the 18z GFS With the wicked cold air supply, this should either wind up as a pain in the butt ice event or an all snow event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z UKMET for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 seems like Mt Holly is mentioning every type of precip imaginable NJZ010-110900-SOMERSET- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE 330 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENINGTHEN MOSTLY CLOUDYWITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 10 TO 15. CHANCE OFSNOW 50 PERCENT. SATURDAYSNOW LIKELY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS INTHE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND SLEET LIKELY IN THE EVENINGTHENFREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. SUNDAYMOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. SLEETLIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS INTHE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. SUNDAY NIGHTPARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING.LOWS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES ASLOW AS ZERO AFTER MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Henry M calling for major snowstorm in NYC. Sorry everyone, we are having clear skies that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Major ice storm on the 18z GFS With the wicked cold air supply, this should either wind up as a pain in the butt ice event or an all snow event up here. .25" of the liquid is in the form of snow, but .38" of the liquid is ice and the rest of the .32" of that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Henry M calling for major snowstorm in NYC. Sorry everyone, we are having clear skies that day. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Henry M calling for major snowstorm in NYC. Sorry everyone, we are having clear skies that day. Well there goes this storm. Ill give it to the guy and the same said about JB. There dedication to the profession is amazing and people like that do a great job with PR in this field i think. Back to the storm though i HOPE this doesnt turn out to be an ice storm, id much rather be cold and dry than deal with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You want those ensemble members to start sliding east in the next few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can a MET weigh in on the statement that since the piece of energy is still on the Pacific Ocean the models don't have good data to present a more accurate forecast. Does that make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can a MET weigh in on the statement that since the piece of energy is still on the Pacific Ocean the models don't have good data to present a more accurate forecast. Does that make sense? I'm not a met but models get a better handle on things when the atmospheric conditions has better sampling. We have poor sampling of atmospheric conditions over the pacific ocean and good sampling when it comes ashore on the west coast which leads to more accurate forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Can a MET weigh in on the statement that since the piece of energy is still on the Pacific Ocean the models don't have good data to present a more accurate forecast. Does that make sense?Not a met but it's true the RAOBS network is sparse over the North Pacific. We will have a better idea in a day or two but the primary looks to get pretty far north, which guarantees a change to rain for NYC and the immediate coast. Front end dump is possible though and could be significant given Gulf moisture, especially in the NW suburbs. Highly doubt it's all snow for anyone in the forum though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Henry M calling for major snowstorm in NYC. Sorry everyone, we are having clear skies that day. Do you have link for this? I see nothing about this, only for new Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Nowhere does he say major snow storm for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Do you have link for this? I see nothing about this, only for new Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine. Nowhere does he say major snow storm for NYC... His Facebook page and he was mentioning the euro which does not show a major snowstorm for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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