powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Powder... Always starts in sne earlier in the modeling. You're snowing nicely Saturday night as is mpm. Sweet thanks. Appreciate it. Curious on timing up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't like this sheared out look the Euro has been showing the last two runs now at 500mb. Yeah, the QPF is there, but my gut doesn't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro similar to CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro is essentially a long duration high end advisory to low end warning snow for most of SNE and CNE. Similar to GFS and CMC or further SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Similar to GFS and CMC or further SE? Almost right over the BM. 0.25" qpf up your way with temps near 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Snow all day Sunday too for all of New England albeit light qpf Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Large expanse of -10C 850mb temps south of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Snow all day Sunday too for all of New England albeit light qpf Sunday. I wonder if the models are keying in on the intensity of the northern stream vortex and that in itself digs far enough south to secondary off the New England coastline, maybe we are heading towards that in the operational guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't like this sheared out look the Euro has been showing the last two runs now at 500mb. Yeah, the QPF is there, but my gut doesn't like it. I'm already far more excited than this past weekend. Both the GFS and Euro at least agree on a fully saturated snow growth zone this time around. We can do a lot better even if we only get the paltry QPF numbers that we had this Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like the overrunning potential. Screw a big storm, give me duration with cold and good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Similar to GFS and CMC or further SE? It has that NW band like other guidance though overnight Saturday into Sunday morning stretching from BGM to northern VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I don't like this sheared out look the Euro has been showing the last two runs now at 500mb. Yeah, the QPF is there, but my gut doesn't like it. It looked like it was going to be further NW early on then gets run thru the grinder ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm already far more excited than this past weekend. Both the GFS and Euro at least agree on a fully saturated snow growth zone this time around. We can do a lot better even if we only get the paltry QPF numbers that we had this Monday. Agree. DGZ temps look ideal in NNE. Looks fluffy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That northern vortex shears out the southern stream system which dampens out our coastal storm and instead we have 850mb temps warm all the way up to Cape Cod, MA and we get screwed with warm temperatures. How does the 850mbs temps warm that fast? I'm not likely this monster northern stream vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It looked like it was going to be further NW early on then gets run thru the grinder ENE Which for me is fine because with a Miller B-esque system going over BOS, the NEK gets downsloped up the ying yang. This solution pretty much benefits everyone in New England. NNE gets paltry QPF but 20:1 or better ratios, and SNE gets better qpf with 12-15:1 ratios most likely. Too early for much ratio talk, but its my speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like the overrunning potential. Screw a big storm, give me duration with cold and good ratios. Yes. I always prefer no changeover, no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Almost right over the BM. 0.25" qpf up your way with temps near 10. Cool, I think we can work with that. I'd take 3-6" and run with it this time of year. Keep building the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The thermal gradient is excellent in this storm too...that will be a more efficient qpf producer than last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Cool, I think we can work with that. I'd take 3-6" and run with it this time of year. Keep building the pack. Somewhere in NNE looks to be in that pseudo-deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like the overrunning potential. Screw a big storm, give me duration with cold and good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro snow maps show 3-6" most at coast.. I think would be more based on higher ratios.. I agree I like the set-up for overrunning snow and cold temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Cool, I think we can work with that. I'd take 3-6" and run with it this time of year. Keep building the pack. especially since it will be such good snow making weather for the duration... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 especially since it will be such good snow making weather for the duration... Even with little natural snow, much of New England will reap benefits from this cold with respect to snow making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 15F and snowing.. wish there was a football game this weekend in NE, instead they are in Miami.. can't even watch that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's what I'm most interested in at this point. Assuming this comes together, I have a hard time seeing how the coastal plain avoids rain for the bulk of the main event...so best to hope for some decent WAA snows ahead of it. Unfortunately, I feel the models usually hit that up hard at this range then often back off as the event gets closer. I feel the same. I hope they don't back off like usual. The NAM depiction would be really enjoyable I think - at least along the arctic boundary. Several hours of light snow, gradually getting steadier, with temperatures in the 20-28 range. And the GFS and CMC are pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 What a great run (so far)! My favorite winter revisited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Does the Euro show a change to rain on the coast like the GFS or is it colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Jesus, the Euro has much of NNE in the single digits Saturday with snow breaking out in the afternoon and evening. FLUFF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Guys, talks about the clipper/Miller B in the pattern thread...lets keep this thread to the 12/14-15 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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