bricktamland Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We'd better hope mikehobbyist doesn't see the EPS or any of this talk about a 897 mb low lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 BOAT =Break Out Another Thousand We got a pretty great price for it. Also I am a boat captain and work for the Staten Island ferry as well. I'm pretty handy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We'd better hope mikehobbyist doesn't see the EPS or any of this talk about a 897 mb low lol It's always next week. Ever since feb we have been in a rut. We really can't complain though since we had such a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Oh no not the euro ensembles look great statement. Congrats DC and Virginia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We got a pretty great price for it. Also I am a boat captain and work for the Staten Island ferry as well. I'm pretty handy. Robert from the Brooklyn still working there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We got a pretty great price for it. Also I am a boat captain and work for the Staten Island ferry as well. I'm pretty handy. Used to fish the bay with a couple Ferry guys. They said they were oilers, whatever that is. They used to dig clams for extra cash in the old days.i remember when there was a party boat fleet at Great Kills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think what happened here lately is that Jan and Feb hit so often, that people starting looking at day 7 and day 10 threats as legit . We used to focus on stuff inside 5 days . Now the 150 - 190 hour countdowns create the unrealistic view of real model verification in that time period . If a storm is seen on the models 7 to 10 days out and its center winds up 200 miles to the south or north , the reality is that's still inside the acceptable envelope of numerical modeling errors . I think too many people look at the track and fail to realize that the 8 days spread on , for example the euro ensembles that show a BM track still may be the difference between a storm to ALB or one to DC and out . Have to wait inside 5 days to look at means etc , its just too far out and the variance is too great IMO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think what happened here lately is that Jan and Feb hit so often, that people starting looking at day 7 and day 10 threats as legit . We used to focus on stuff inside 5 days . Now the 150 - 190 hour countdowns create the unrealistic view of real model verification in that time period . If a storm is seen on the models 7 to 10 days out and its center winds up 200 miles to the south or north , the reality is that's still inside the acceptable envelope of numerical modeling errors . I think too many people look at the track and fail to realize that the 8 days spread on , for example the euro ensembles that show a BM track still may be the difference between a storm to ALB or one to DC and out . Have to wait inside 5 days to look at means etc , its just too far out and the variance is too great IMO . This storm's outcome took shape about 72 hours ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This storm's outcome took shape about 72 hours ahead of time. That`s fair , But the difference is huge between watching something between day 5 to day 3 - instead of starting the talk at day 9 . That's how you get 60 pages of a non event . I guess since Jan and Feb were so easy , it morphs into every threat must be legit , even if its in the LR I will add sickman saw that first hand , so he stopped it cold out at day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think what happened here lately is that Jan and Feb hit so often, that people starting looking at day 7 and day 10 threats as legit . Agreed. Most folks understand that it's relatively difficult to get a significant synoptic snowstorm around here, but when they do hit in rapid succession for a few weeks, it's easy to lose sight of that. An individual discussing or posting a 200+ hour GFS frame would promptly be issued a , at least in a normal season, and a 200+ hour Euro solution is really no different (even the ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Agreed. Most folks understand that it's relatively difficult to get a significant synoptic snowstorm around here, but when they do hit in rapid succession for a few weeks, it's easy to lose sight of that. An individual discussing or posting a 200+ hour GFS frame would promptly be issued a , at least in a normal season, and a 200+ hour Euro solution is really no different (even the ensembles). Lol, you average probably about 15-20" more per year than most in the NYC subforum, ya weenie ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 00z GFS big storm signal now day 8. Trending better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Nice window of opportunity there day 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 0z Euro ensembles are east with the March 25th low, The individual members show a low with pressure in 980s or lower, going to out to sea, like the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How much snow are we talking? (Sarcasm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How much for South Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This is a step in the trend direction...right my friends???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 One thing for sure the highs fail to hit freezing from 3/24-3/28. This is definite on all models right now. Two days are 22-24 F at best and the last week of March will have -25 to -30 F departures. I think we go to 5-7 F in the city three days that week for lows. -19 C at 850 and -16 C at 925 for a few days will be locks on not making freezing for 4-5 days. I do not think I am wrong with this. If that storm could trend north, a real HECS threat given pattern. I see 3/31-4/6 being seasonal and rainy with the persistent cold pattern looking to lock above 45 North for the first time in many months. Looks to get real warm south of 37 North. 50's may become more regular a few days after 3/28. Any thoughts ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 One thing for sure the highs fail to hit freezing from 3/24-3/28. This is definite on all models right now. Two days are 22-24 F at best and the last week of March will have -25 to -30 F departures. I think we go to 5-7 F in the city three days that week for lows. -19 C at 850 and -16 C at 925 for a few days will be locks on not making freezing for 4-5 days. I do not think I am wrong with this. If that storm could trend north, a real HECS threat given pattern. I see 3/31-4/6 being seasonal and rainy with the persistent cold pattern looking to lock above 45 North for the first time in many months. Looks to get real warm south of 37 North. 50's may become more regular a few days after 3/28. Any thoughts ?? U think knyc gets to 5 degrees 3 x next week. ? Thoughts are as follows. Pazzo just fainted. And when he comes too. You're in for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 One thing for sure the highs fail to hit freezing from 3/24-3/28. This is definite on all models right now. Two days are 22-24 F at best and the last week of March will have -25 to -30 F departures. I think we go to 5-7 F in the city three days that week for lows. -19 C at 850 and -16 C at 925 for a few days will be locks on not making freezing for 4-5 days. I do not think I am wrong with this. If that storm could trend north, a real HECS threat given pattern. I see 3/31-4/6 being seasonal and rainy with the persistent cold pattern looking to lock above 45 North for the first time in many months. Looks to get real warm south of 37 North. 50's may become more regular a few days after 3/28. Any thoughts ?? move way way south - we get screwed again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014031806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 move way way south - we get screwed again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014031806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png Anything pattern wise or meteorological that could bring this up the coast like the 3/17 12Z ECMWF ensemble members showed yesterday ? What do you think is on the table with this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 move way way south - we get screwed again http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014031806/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png 180 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anything pattern wise or meteorological that could bring this up the coast like the 3/17 12Z ECMWF ensemble members showed yesterday ? What do you think is on the table with this ? Its 7 days out, relax. Honestly I'd like to see the ridge farther West & the shortwave that dives down stronger & farther West...Compare the EURO/GFS @ H5 step by step, and you'll see why they do what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Anything pattern wise or meteorological that could bring this up the coast like the 3/17 12Z ECMWF ensemble members showed yesterday ? What do you think is on the table with this ? you tell us you like to make the BOLD predictions around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 6z GEFS is in agreement with the 0z Euro ensemble mean. The large,intense PV and energy crashing in the Pacific NW, support weaker or suppressed storm. Of course, if the PV is weaker, or the Pacific energy holds back that could change. But that hasn't been the trend, the last few weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Of course it might miss to the south, what else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Major changes at H5 between the 00z and 06z GFS. The 00z GFS only dug the trough to the Ohio Valley while 06z digs the trough to southern Alabama. Major changes. The Canadian is almost the same as the 06z GFS and the 00z ECMWF matches the 00z GFS. The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was a close miss and the 00z ECMWF control run was well southeast. I suspect we'll see some more changes as time goes on. The ridge axis is actually in pretty good position. Something to keep an eye on. I counted 5 major hits on the individual Euro ensembles (10"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The 6z GEFS is in agreement with the 0z Euro ensemble mean. The large,intense PV and energy crashing in the Pacific NW, support weaker or suppressed storm. Of course, if the PV is weaker, or the Pacific energy holds back that could change. But that hasn't been the trend, the last few weeks... Of course now that it's getting to late March, in this winter suppression is becoming more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 This looks like a pure coastal so it's going to be handled differently than the last storm. I'll say this, the control run might not have been so crazy the gfs really intensifies this to below 970 though well off shore right now. You wouldn't want it to show any hit this far out anyway but the threat is clearly there. When you eject such a cold and anomalous air mass this late in the year into building warmth down south, you could get quite a powerful system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Of course now that it's getting to late March, in this winter suppression is becoming more likely. March climo is irrelevant. The current pattern continues to have very anomalous PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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