MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GGEM looks similiar to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GGEM looks similiar to the GFS The northern stream entity on its own can deliver for us if it's amplified and consolidated enough. We have to hope though it doesn't get sheared out like the other disturbances we've had all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GGEM looks like January instead of MarchWatching the landscapers today is hilarious. They are trying to rake out beds that are frozen solid.As a landscape designer I'm not even entertaining the thought of planting till the third week In April. I would say a cold spring -3 or more departures a pretty good lock for coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 In the contest of normal versus actual, Philly wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 that implies our chances of anything significant are low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 that implies our chances of anything significant are low there is like one borderline decent hint there, absolutely nothing to get excited about and being late in march next week...well this has a chance below 10% of delivering snow at the coast or near it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z GGEM Ensembles. Really good look. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm there is like one borderline decent hint there, absolutely nothing to get excited about and being late in march next week...well this has a chance below 10% of delivering snow at the coast or near it that implies our chances of anything significant are low 180 hours out. Enough said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Most of the GFS members are focusing on the initial wave, the 12z GFS OP actually developed a low that gave snow to PA etc on the 2nd shortwave. Some of the members show that as well. GGEM shows that scenario also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How does AccuWx still have 25" as the normal for NYC, If you use the most accurate number (the most data) it is ~ 29"....never understood why u would use an arbitrary very short term period to determine the long term average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z GGEM Ensembles. Really good look. http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=180&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pnm 180 hours out. Enough said. you never learn anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 you never learn anything Actually, you never learn anything. You're already giving up on a storm a week away? Come on dude.I know this storm might be a long shot for our area but when do we get a chance to track a big storm at the end of March that can deliver a lot of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro also develops a weak wave along the cold front tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How does AccuWx still have 25" as the normal for NYC, If you use the most accurate number (the most data) it is ~ 29"....never understood why u would use an arbitrary very short term period to determine the long term average They are using the official normals. What's wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Actually, you never learn anything. You're already giving up on a storm a week away? Come on dude. That`s not his point , at 8 days , its noise brother . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 How does AccuWx still have 25" as the normal for NYC, If you use the most accurate number (the most data) it is ~ 29"....never understood why u would use an arbitrary very short term period to determine the long term average 25-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 That`s not his point , at 8 days , its noise brother . I know it is. Just posting model runs which I do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yea anything this far out is just noise but the threat for something is clearly there. The gfs still gives us snow despite the initial low moving OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 sighhhh, when is the warm weather getting here for good?! cold can go away now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 They are using the official normals. What's wrong with that? I just dot understand why they make such a short period of time (last 30 years) the 'long time average'. Over time that will constantly make the long term average a moving target, when it should be nearly stationary. All that time period is picking up is a piece of a cycle. The 70-00 average was like 22" The 90-20 average could be 32" While the real answer is 29" (largest amount of data you have) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 sighhhh, when is the warm weather getting here for good?! cold can go away now April ( maybe ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 It's a shame it will probably too cloudy to see this tomorrow night http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/03/13/asteroid-black-bright-star-lifetime-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 While it will probably warm up to start April I see no end to chilly shots of cold air as long as cold air hangs just to the north. It looks like the alternating +PNA/-EPO will continue. I suspect there could be some late April freezes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I just dot understand why they make such a short period of time (last 30 years) the 'long time average'. Over time that will constantly make the long term average a moving target, when it should be nearly stationary. All that time period is picking up is a piece of a cycle. The 70-00 average was like 22" The 90-20 average could be 32" While the real answer is 29" (largest amount of data you have) Well, for one thing, comparatively, each city has a different period of record, so if you compare one city's full period-of-record average to another, you aren't comparing apples to apples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The Euro phases the two streams, nice low pressure system offshore off the Carolina coast with moisture from Florida to the lakes. Nice to see the storm signal remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z Euro go boom at 192hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 12z Euro comes pretty darn close to producing my big time storm for us next Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. 988 mb just south of Eastern Long Island at 192 hrs. Deepens it to 972 mb over Cape Cod at 198 hrs. There you go. Major effects miss us just to the east, but anyway... Over 1 inch qpf in most locations. Major blizzard for New England, Connecticut, Eastern Long Island. Deepens to 956 mb in the Gulf of Maine at 204 hrs. with wrap around all the way down to eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 We get destroyed at hour 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 If the shortwave dives down a little farther SW and there's more ridging, my god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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