wkd Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 He has a thread in this forum as well http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43225-2013-2014-seasonal-snowfall-totals-in-new-jersey/#entry2889820 My bad. Didn't see it because it was pretty far down the thread list. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Looks more March 93 to me It'll probably be another March 1888. Low straight into Long Island, driving rainstorm for New England, 24"+ of snow for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 do you see any similarities to PD 2 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 They might as well issue a winter storm warning from DC to the tropics of North Carolina for day 4 (Dgex storm) and then again for days 6 and 8. DCA averages about 62 degrees during the last week of March. That would be like NYC from April 30th to May 4th, where we average 62-64 degrees. That just shows you how insane this is; Especially if next week produces snow in the tropics again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 After the March 3rd, St. Patty's storm threats were compared to PD 2 here, they trended south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A lot of talk about the south trend but if the models are correct with the ULL in the NE Pac and the ridge spike out west, this potential Day 5-7 storm could be an entirely different amplifying system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A lot of talk about the south trend but if the models are correct with the ULL in the NE Pac and the ridge spike out west, this potential Day 5-7 storm could be an entirely different amplifying system. At this pace, it will turn into a snowstorm for Georgia and Florida. Your trip to Guatemala completely jinxed the last 45 days of "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 So true Alex. He jinxed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 At this pace, it will turn into a snowstorm for Georgia and Florida. Your trip to Guatemala completely jinxed the last 45 days of "winter". Or maybe a snowstorm for Guatemala. This storm will throw Koppen climate zones out of whack all over North/Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 U think knyc gets to 5 degrees 3 x next week. ? Thoughts are as follows. Pazzo just fainted. And when he comes too. You're in for it. I'll be in Aix-en-Provence, France bro. It can get to -50 for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'll be in Aix-en-Provence, France bro. It can get to -50 for all I care. Dude do I smell engagement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Dude do I smell engagement ? Haha no, actually for work. My new company is headquartered there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Earthlights on board with a big system? Ok you've got my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Earthlights on board with a big system? Ok you've got my attention. I don't think he is just yet - just noting that if X happens, it won't be another DC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I don't think he is just yet - just noting that if X happens, it won't be another DC special. Among other things, it could be a fish special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action. We could start to build up into a drought again if we don't see some storminess by the end of the month into April, and then go into an eastern ridge pattern. The Palmer index still has most of us as dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Just judging from the PNA an NAO, seems like the risk is definitely on the side of too much suppression. Southern and eastern sections of the forum, once again, are in the best positions, but as we have seen this month, that doesn't necessarily mean any of us will get into appreciable action. How rare would it be to have 3 significant snow events in March miss us to the south ? Can anybody find a year where this happened ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Earthlights on board with a big system? Ok you've got my attention. I don't recall him commiting to a big system in the NYC Metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I shouldn't have said committed but there's definitely some interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 A lot of talk about the south trend but if the models are correct with the ULL in the NE Pac and the ridge spike out west, this potential Day 5-7 storm could be an entirely different amplifying system. I don't recall him commiting to a big system in the NYC Metro see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Open a thread that reads..... snow threat!!! . http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 no storm threads till 5 days away from any potential according to moderator Sickman still a few days away from any 5 day potential - lets try and play by the rules this time around including if a thread is opened in the future Open a thread that reads..... snow threat!!! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 no storm threads till 5 days away from any potential according to moderator Sickman still a few days away from any 5 day potential - lets try and play by the rules this time around including if a thread is opened in the future I'll have to call him into PHL to enforce that rule there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 One thing for sure the highs fail to hit freezing from 3/24-3/28. This is definite on all models right now. Two days are 22-24 F at best and the last week of March will have -25 to -30 F departures. I think we go to 5-7 F in the city three days that week for lows. -19 C at 850 and -16 C at 925 for a few days will be locks on not making freezing for 4-5 days. I do not think I am wrong with this. If that storm could trend north, a real HECS threat given pattern. I see 3/31-4/6 being seasonal and rainy with the persistent cold pattern looking to lock above 45 North for the first time in many months. Looks to get real warm south of 37 North. 50's may become more regular a few days after 3/28. Any thoughts ?? NYC has only recorded 7 sub-freezing high temperatures later than 3/24 since 1869. Most of those were before 1925. The one anomaly was the April 1982 bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Well, the Canadian develops a low on the cold front for tomorrow night and brings over an inch of rain to most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 NYC has only recorded 7 sub-freezing high temperatures later than 3/24 since 1869. Most of those were before 1925. The one anomaly was the April 1982 bomb. He forgot to mention the 40" of snow we're going to get that week. One HECS to establish the cold, and another one as it departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 0z CMC blows up the low OTS, 974MB. Seems like most models show a good storm in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 GGEM looks like January instead of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 0z CMC blows up the low OTS, 974MB. Seems like most models show a good storm in the LR. Did you mena 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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