Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It sure is...but looking at other aspects besides just the SLP map, there is certainly alot to worry about in order to get a solution like that to unfold. I hope to hell it happens but just going to play this with extreme caution until the Euro comes out at least. If the Euro wants to present a solution which is rather similar or give the same general idea the GFS has then I will be much more excited and really change my tune. well hopefully everyone here is sophisticated enough to know one model run means nada but I can guarantee no one here expected this. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I feel great being congratulated on a 108 hour GFS run with little support. I think there's some support for a bit of snow from this, but the big coastal idea I'll leave on hold until there's better evidence. Add some instability too , its a Will/Hoar early Dec special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 well hopefully everyone here is sophisticated enough to know one model run means nada but I can guarantee no one here expected this. LOL haha I know. I agree with your previous post though, the pattern definitely supports cyclogenesis somewhere off the coast but the question is where? I guess we know what camp I was originally in, however, the 12z GFS certainly makes me not want to set that thinking in stone and I am certainly open to a solution which is possible to that. Anything is certainly possible and it would be foolish to discount any solution at this point, especially a 12z GFS type. Rest of 12z guidance and the ensembles should tell us a great deal more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Add some instability too , its a Will/Hoar early Dec special Happy 2-3'' per hour rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z GGEM isn't buying what the GFS is selling...tho it is more of a classic SWFE later next week versus a cutter (more for the Dec pattern thread)...it just doesn't amplify hardly any energy off the coast for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 Don't forget last nights UKMET had a decent system 990ish but pretty far offshore in the 0z run last night AND the E ENS were west of the op. Interesting, but potentially meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Considering how the GFS has been performing its best to count on what is more likely. A nice 2-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 GEFS are definitely east of the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 I would say that the most likely scenario at this moment remains offshore, but for wiggle room to correct west as we get closer to the time frame in range. The trough doesn't want to dig in the polar jet, but the southern stream is providing the energy, question becomes if any shortwave that wants to get involved in the polar jet stream, does get involved, then how does it react with the offshore low. 12z GFS develops the low offshore of NC, in which becomes matured as it moves to 40N: 70W benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 GEFS are definitely east of the op run. how do you get them so very early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 how do you get them so very early We get the models as soon as the files hit the NCEP servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 GEFS are definitely east of the op run. how do you get them so very early Out to 192 now on sv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 I feel like now that I'm paying this site for the models they're slower to come out or am I off on the time of the old raleighwx site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 We get the models as soon as the files hit the NCEP servers. Govt , gives our taxpayer stuff to private firms before the GP, about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Govt , gives our taxpayer stuff to private firms before the GP, about right It's there for anyone. Just have to create a system that pulls the files and displays them. We don't have a special feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's there for anyone. Just have to create a system that pulls the files and displays them. We don't have a special feed. It should be on the NCEP site as quick is what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It should be on the NCEP site as quick is what I mean. It probably could be if they didn't produce so much graphics and what not. The reason why they come out so fast here is because we limit the products produced. The energy mets need the runs to come out ASAP to blog about it. Then the traders can screw the public with energy prices...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It probably could be if they didn't produce so much graphics and what not. The reason why they come out so fast here is because we limit the products produced. The energy mets need the runs to come out ASAP to blog about it. Then the traders can screw the public with energy prices...lol. LOl, in 6 hours they will change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 LOl, in 6 hours they will change You'd be surprised how quickly the markets react to the GFS. If the GFS comes in cold, nat gas rockets up and then if the ensembles are warmer, it falls. If you look at a daily nat gas chart, you can see when the GFS op and ensembles come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z UKMET looks pretty wound up with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 12z UKMET looks pretty wound up with this system. Gets going a little to late maybe? Another one of those perfect scenarios for snow on the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 For the mets, would this system if it trended stronger and deeper have any effect on the warm up later in the week? Ie stronger push of cold behind the system (rather than just a weak wave with no real backside CAA) to help mitigate the return SW flow that then develops? Might sound like a weenie question but trying to get an idea for snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 For the mets, would this system if it trended stronger and deeper have any effect on the warm up later in the week? Ie stronger push of cold behind the system (rather than just a weak wave with no real backside CAA) to help mitigate the return SW flow that then develops? Might sound like a weenie question but trying to get an idea for snowmaking. Yeah I talked about this to Kevin...it would probably hold off the warmth returning until perhaps the last second before the front moves in. It would probably be one of those things where the front weakens as it moves east thanks to the ridging nosing in behind the departing storm. Even if it doesn't hit, it's already trying to do that on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Euro is not enthused with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Euro is not enthused with this system. Not at all. Just a little light QPF, probably a little -SN inland on the high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 It's likely a 2-4 inch deal. Just plan on that do you don't get hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 ...Let the model riding begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 I thought the Euro had some changes that weren't insignificant at this range. Is what it is but will be interesting to follow the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Not at all. Just a little light QPF, probably a little -SN inland on the high terrain. Dr. No back to true form. Should be an interesting 24-36 hours to watch the trends though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 29, 2013 Author Share Posted November 29, 2013 When you look at 108 v 120 last night, you can see what's changing a little. Less focus offshore, now more with the impulse riding down through the OHV. It's interesting, would need to see that really establish itself to get a GFS type solution. Long shot, but beats watching capped ocean flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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