CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Models are pretty warm. Euro is furnaced at 925mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Models are pretty warm. Euro is furnaced at 925mb. Ahh the good ol' cold/dry warm/wet pattern... periods of bitter cold mixed in with just enough warmth when it precipitates that its mostly liquid. Sort of like how 2010-2011 started out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Ukie go boom pic.twitter.com/r5OSNTOtTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Everyones favorite met go boom Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan1h New #Moon Monday. Strongest tide of December Tues am, comes w NNE wind 15-30 mph. Rain at shore, snow in hills. I'm on record saying it's primarily a 34 rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Ahh the good ol' cold/dry warm/wet pattern... periods of bitter cold mixed in with just enough warmth when it precipitates that its mostly liquid. Sort of like how 2010-2011 started out. Yep. Not giving up on Tuesday yet but a weak solution is a wet solution. The bitter cold is nice but most of it is being wasted with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yep. Not giving up on Tuesday yet but a weak solution is a wet solution. The bitter cold is nice but most of it is being wasted with no snow. Look on the bright side....SSTs going down. You of all people knwo how difficult it is to get snow this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Everyones favorite met go boom Tim Kelley NECN @SurfSkiWxMan1h New #Moon Monday. Strongest tide of December Tues am, comes w NNE wind 15-30 mph. Rain at shore, snow in hills. I'm on record saying it's primarily a 34 rainer You know it's bad when you go to fantasy tweets from Bastardi and Kelley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Look on the bright side....SSTs going down. You of all people knwo how difficult it is to get snow this time of year. I don't mind if the last two weeks and next two weeks are all part of laying the foundation for winter. I was the biggest cheerleader for this type of up and down pattern with there being plenty of opportunities. I'm worried now about mid month onward. The more I read about cohens stuff....although accuracy in December can be dodgy his j f m forecasts are usually spot on. Milder but near average snowfall isn't terrible of course and may just be a pattern similar to now but with more snow during the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Nice rain event on the GFS all the way north. Plenty of rain.....good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 at this rate...my mocked OES event may produce more flakes. that's just a big fat rainer with raw onshore winds. cold and dank on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 at this rate...my mocked OES event may produce more flakes. that's just a big fat rainer with raw onshore winds. cold and dank on the GFS. 7 flakes a fluttering from partly cloudy skies vs a potential storm event with modest rain. Both are worthy of their own threads and require no justification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Thinking some one in New England could see something...whether its in northern MA or in NH/ME who knows. If that s/w can dig and amplify that trough, we could spawn cyclogenesis early per Ukie. Doubt it happens, but it sure is some interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think the euro op is probably more likely than a 3" inv trough setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I think the euro op is probably more likely than a 3" inv trough setup. yeah i agree. the energy isn't all that potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Dependencies on the models, well the GFS is torch, the NAM is the NAM. GEM is over amped - OTS, NAVGEM is similar. Add a little vorticity (to bad it can't be injected from nowhere) to a bump in the 5H HGTS. All the models have it. A wannabe that probably will only be a soaker locally and an inch or two back from the coast, but it's close. Watch the EURO come out with it bombing off the Delmarva. This place would light up faster than the masses scrambling to put the ornaments. Surprised there is not more interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 yeah i agree. the energy isn't all that potent. Yeah and it's getting the boot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The UK and GFS cut off the mid levels east of the Delmarva. The NAM is sort of similar with the mid level flow wrapping around all the way to the SE. The Canadian and ECMWF are much flatter along the east coast. What's weird is that the UK and GFS are totally different in the west/central US. The GFS appears to be an outlier with a separate strong mid level center over SD at day 3. This appears to warm the GFS solution and kick the coastal out faster than on the UK, and faster than it otherwise might. Ensembles support the less interesting scenario, not surprisingly. But if a wrapped up solution were to occur, I would expect the ensembles to be too weak and east anyway. So who knows. But seeing the EC so far east and flat pretty much seals it or me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The UK and GFS cut off the mid levels east of the Delmarva. The NAM is sort of similar with the mid level flow wrapping around all the way to the SE. The Canadian and ECMWF are much flatter along the east coast. What's weird is that the UK and GFS are totally different in the west/central US. The GFS appears to be an outlier with a separate strong mid level center over SD at day 3. This appears to warm the GFS solution and kick the coastal out faster than on the UK, and faster than it otherwise might. Ensembles support the less interesting scenario, not surprisingly. But if a wrapped up solution were to occur, I would expect the ensembles to be too weak and east anyway. So who knows. But seeing the EC so far east and flat pretty much seals it or me. Like we said yesterday the pattern doesn't support a wound up storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Like we said yesterday the pattern doesn't support a wound up storm Regardless of what happens in our back yards, I think this is nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Lack of a true PNA ridge out west supports a more out to sea more progressive solution on the models, and we are currently seeing that, unless the shortwave energy over the Great Lakes enters the Mid Atlantic coastline H5 trough then it winds up far enough south for a significant snowstorm, but right now pattern does not support such a solution, even though the GFS shows heavy QPF, the storm doesn't deepen a ton, because lack of a northern stream energetic system. And lack of high pressure to the north is keeping this rain for the coastline on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 JB keeping weenies in the game Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi47m By Monday everyone will have an idea and by Thursday everyone will stay they were right. Such is the world of virtual weather Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi48m Remember, the original battleground with ne event was us with rain or snow idea vs sunny and milder. people jumping in after party started Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi48m UKMETJMA colder with Ne Storm Tue into http://Wed.Weatherbell.com still thinks this has snow with it over interior. Coast always been iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 As modeling has progressed the rate of total model misses continues to drop. Rarely now do they bust significantly inside of a couple of days. Could this be one of those times sure but the chances are probably one in 100. Wake me up when more than the ukmet and jma are interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I agree Winston, the UKMET and JMA are not the models I want showing a storm for our period, if any of the models I wanted showing a storm it would be the GFS and EURO, but who knows, maybe it will trend colder as the northern stream energy becomes clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 18z nam is tittilating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 18z nam is tittilating Now lets get the GFS to grow some balz. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Now lets get the GFS to grow some balz. LOL It's close but still not enough to overcome the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Agreed. Still exceeds monitoring a modeled Summer heat-wave. Not even close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 18z NAM is close to giving us a big rainstorm, and a step away from a snowstorm. Your normal track of H7 low and H85 lows aren't the problem here, its lack of a cold airmass shortwave interaction with the southern stream disturbance that is our low. This interaction doesn't take place until it hits Nova Scotia. I wanted to say its close, but the truth is its far from reacting the right way for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 18z NAM is close to giving us a big rainstorm, and a step away from a snowstorm. Your normal track of H7 low and H85 lows aren't the problem here, its lack of a cold airmass shortwave interaction with the southern stream disturbance that is our low. This interaction doesn't take place until it hits Nova Scotia. I wanted to say its close, but the truth is its far from reacting the right way for snow. Is it Close to snow for wa wa and monads. Ill take snow anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Is it Close to snow for wa wa and monads. Ill take snow anywhere Have car. Will travel. The cpick motto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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