12/3 Tuesday Potential Event

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Most models show something ranging from a few rain or snow showers to something more dramatic.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Most models show something ranging from a few rain or snow showers to something more dramatic.

its growing legs

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully the fish enjoy it!  

[CTWeatherFreak]

Hopefully, we enjoy it more!

[ineedsnow]

 12z gfs

[weatherwiz]

Hopefully, we enjoy it more!

 

I wish but the pattern doesn't really support strong cyclogenesis right along the coast...cyclogenesis appears more favorable far enough out into sea to where we would likely see nil...unless some sort of inverted trough developed in which case perhaps the outer Cape could get some snow showers but doesn't seem likely right now IMO

[Tropopause_Fold]

bomb on the GFS

[Ginx snewx]

I wish but the pattern doesn't really support strong cyclogenesis right along the coast...cyclogenesis appears more favorable far enough out into sea to where we would likely see nil...unless some sort of inverted trough developed in which case perhaps the outer Cape could get some snow showers but doesn't seem likely right now IMO

oops says the GFS

[Ginx snewx]

its growing legs

with feet

[ineedsnow]

12z gfs came alot closer

I wish but the pattern doesn't really support strong cyclogenesis right along the coast...cyclogenesis appears more favorable far enough out into sea to where we would likely see nil...unless some sort of inverted trough developed in which case perhaps the outer Cape could get some snow showers but doesn't seem likely right now IMO

yeah it is 

 

bomb on the GFS

[CoastalWx]

Well, that was interesting.

[Tropopause_Fold]

too bad the airmass is so mild along the coast. that would be a nice snowstorm on the shore if it were a tad cooler.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

bomb on the GFS

 

I only start threads for real events. 

[ORH_wxman]

Well the 12z GFS likes the idea of a shovelable event for the interior...maybe even the coast at the end.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I only start threads for real events. 

 

problem is...we wouldn't be looking out the window at snow in SE areas. thread for a rainer!

[weatherwiz]

oops says the GFS

 

The 12z run is handling the southern stream worlds differently than the past few runs.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

problem is...we wouldn't be looking out the window at snow in SE areas. thread for a rainer!

 

It would change to snow at the end on the GFS. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

It would change to snow at the end on the GFS. 

yeah low levels would likely cool in time for some frozen to close it out. 

[weatherwiz]

It's actually quite amazing how the GFS virtually handles everything perfectly on this run.  There would actually be one hell of a CCB going right through SE NH down through central MA and into western CT.  

[Clinch Leatherwood]

yeah low levels would likely cool in time for some frozen to close it out. 

 

Hard to believe the GFS until it's got some support.  Models have been really weird with this system all along in the mid range.

 

Tough deal for you or I if it plays out the way it's modeled.  Driving rain from a different direction with maybe some changeover at the end but we've both seen how that plays out we typically really struggle until the very end while areas back towards Carver and MIddleboro do well.

[Ginx snewx]

Lol 12-15 just inland congrats Will

[ORH_wxman]

Lol 12-15 just inland congrats Will

 

 

I feel great being congratulated on a 108 hour GFS run with little support.

 

 

I think there's some support for a bit of snow from this, but the big coastal idea I'll leave on hold until there's better evidence.

[weatherwiz]

Just looking at some quick point and click soundings but it seems like a decent amount of llvl warmth gets wrapped around into a great deal of the region, however, it does cool off towards the end which could flip mostly everyone to snow but by that point the precip shield may be racing east rather quickly.  

 

Also, taking this run verbatim, if the development is even 6 hours later we would miss out on something potentially larger.  We're walking a fine line with this one

[ORH_wxman]

Just looking at some quick point and click soundings but it seems like a decent amount of llvl warmth gets wrapped around into a great deal of the region, however, it does cool off towards the end which could flip mostly everyone to snow but by that point the precip shield may be racing east rather quickly.  

 

Also, taking this run verbatim, if the development is even 6 hours later we would miss out on something potentially larger.  We're walking a fine line with this one

 

Its a pretty big hit just inland and north of the pike...south of the pike there is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb that causes issues...esp in E CT, RI, and SE MA. Not as defined back toward BDL.

 

That's just verbatim of course...which is fairly useless right now. One aspect of this whole coastal idea (if it were to pan out) that is a positive is there is high pressure building in to the north in Quebec in the wake of Sunday's mini-event. That would tend to want to trend things cooler I would think going on climo.

[weatherwiz]

Its a pretty big hit just inland and north of the pike...south of the pike there is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb that causes issues...esp in E CT, RI, and SE MA. Not as defined back toward BDL.

 

That's just verbatim of course...which is fairly useless right now. One aspect of this whole coastal idea (if it were to pan out) that is a positive is there is high pressure building in to the north in Quebec in the wake of Sunday's mini-event. That would tend to want to trend things cooler I would think going on climo.

 

That high pressure would certainly help to reinforce the colder air north of the Pike but one thing I'm worried about is this system really seems to want to develop and undergo rapid cyclogenesis a bit later that what we'd probably like to see.  This might allow for a decent amount of warmer air to work in aloft initially before other mechanisms come into play which allow for the column to cool.  I also don't really like how everyhting seems on the progressive side...makes me think we are dealing with a very small window of opportunity here.  Anything is possible but it would be nice to start seeing stronger support from other guidance as well.  We'll see what the Euro brings

[CoastalWx]

Its a pretty big hit just inland and north of the pike...south of the pike there is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb that causes issues...esp in E CT, RI, and SE MA. Not as defined back toward BDL.

 

That's just verbatim of course...which is fairly useless right now. One aspect of this whole coastal idea (if it were to pan out) that is a positive is there is high pressure building in to the north in Quebec in the wake of Sunday's mini-event. That would tend to want to trend things cooler I would think going on climo.

 

You can see some slightly lower dewpoints at 950mb trying to advect south later Sunday and Sunday night as the high tries to build in. At least we would have a high if there were to be something.

[Ginx snewx]

That high pressure would certainly help to reinforce the colder air north of the Pike but one thing I'm worried about is this system really seems to want to develop and undergo rapid cyclogenesis a bit later that what we'd probably like to see.  This might allow for a decent amount of warmer air to work in aloft initially before other mechanisms come into play which allow for the column to cool.  I also don't really like how everyhting seems on the progressive side...makes me think we are dealing with a very small window of opportunity here.  Anything is possible but it would be nice to start seeing stronger support from other guidance as well.  We'll see what the Euro brings

Verbatim Paul its a bomb

[NorEastermass128]

Its a pretty big hit just inland and north of the pike...south of the pike there is a bit of a warm tongue at 925mb that causes issues...esp in E CT, RI, and SE MA. Not as defined back toward BDL.

 

That's just verbatim of course...which is fairly useless right now. One aspect of this whole coastal idea (if it were to pan out) that is a positive is there is high pressure building in to the north in Quebec in the wake of Sunday's mini-event. That would tend to want to trend things cooler I would think going on climo.

 

From a purely meteorological perspective, does it make sense to have a bombing law just off the / hugging the coast at that time frame?  We've got that feature digging into the northern Rockies allowing for a ridge to pop at 500 in the Great Lakes, thus allowing this thing to dig offshore.  In other words, does that pattern / look support this evolution?

[weatherwiz]

Verbatim Paul its a bomb

 

It sure is...but looking at other aspects besides just the SLP map, there is certainly alot to worry about in order to get a solution like that to unfold.  I hope to hell it happens but just going to play this with extreme caution until the Euro comes out at least.  If the Euro wants to present a solution which is rather similar or give the same general idea the GFS has then I will be much more excited and really change my tune.  

[Ginx snewx]

From a purely meteorological perspective, does it make sense to have a bombing law just off the / hugging the coast at that time frame?  We've got that feature digging into the northern Rockies allowing for a ridge to pop at 500 in the Great Lakes, thus allowing this thing to dig offshore.  In other words, does that pattern / look support this evolution?

I would say yes, just the location seems off, all Ens and ops develop LP off the east coast. In some form or another this time period has had a signal, not obviously as insane as the GFS but development in that zone seems a pretty sure bet. Now how deep and how close needs to be worked out.