Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Difference is the new Gfs and a lot of the other models focus the main low under the convection that forms vs near shore. In all likelihood that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 The real kicker happens to be the bowling ball H5 low moving into Montana as the backside of the trough flattens and there is less ridging to really buckle the northern stream shortwave. There are several pieces of shortwave energy within the overall mean trough, but the northern stream remains distant due to the lack of strong backside ridging allowing the solution to remain flat and out to sea, as opposed to wound up and close to the coastline. I say we still have time for changes and given how close the models are to producing something other than a rainstorm, this is a situation we still need to pay attention to regardless of where we are at currently in the model fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Difference is the new Gfs and a lot of the other models focus the main low under the convection that forms vs near shore. In all likelihood that's correct. In all likelihood the multiple shortwaves within the overall mean trough and lack of a Rockies ridge place the progressive pattern in place and out to sea solution is preferable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Two words would surmise this evolving to a non-event: NO BLOCKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Difference in the new NAM vs the new GFS is backside trough ridging over the Great Lakes. The NAM has better ridging over the Great Lakes, allows the H5 low to go negative tilt further south and west than the GFS which has the H5 low over the Great Lakes and no ridging over the Great Lakes and is progressive with the H5 low closing off over Nova Scotia. I have seen this before, although it was on Dec 20th this reminds me of the Dec 20th 2010 snowstorm, although lack of cold air is a real killer to this being a meaningful snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Two words would surmise this evolving to a non-event: NO BLOCKING Actually while that would help, that is not the reason this storm isn't happening. There is lack of ridging over the PNA region, or even the Great Lakes, allows this trough to not dig far enough south, so instead it strengthens east and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 I'm just hoping for some decent rains. Still much needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yeah I hear ya Winston, rain would be much needed, I like the NAM depiction better than the GFS even though its in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Difference in the new NAM vs the new GFS is backside trough ridging over the Great Lakes. The NAM has better ridging over the Great Lakes, allows the H5 low to go negative tilt further south and west than the GFS which has the H5 low over the Great Lakes and no ridging over the Great Lakes and is progressive with the H5 low closing off over Nova Scotia. I have seen this before, although it was on Dec 20th this reminds me of the Dec 20th 2010 snowstorm, although lack of cold air is a real killer to this being a meaningful snowstorm. Doesnt the 18z GFS look considerably colder at 850mb than recent runs? Keeps most of Ct below freezing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Yeah I hear ya Winston, rain would be much needed, I like the NAM depiction better than the GFS even though its in its long range.Please stop calling him Winston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Please stop calling him Winston It would be like calling you damaged. Sorry man could not resist! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 Agreed. Still exceeds monitoring a modeled Summer heat-wave. Not even close! Personally, I disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2013 Share Posted November 30, 2013 I'm just hoping for some decent rains. Still much needed Lol yea that 3 inches was not enough, what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Please stop calling him Winston I personally prefer Mr Bigelsworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 Lol yea that 3 inches was not enough, what??? Not even close. Our skating rink is completely dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I personally prefer Mr Bigelsworth Mr Bigelsworth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Please stop calling him Winston Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looking at the various model runs today, the out to sea tracks are favored as a strong upper level trough enters Montana towards hour 72. Its the location of this system's H5 low which determines how much ridging is favored over the Great Lakes for our trough over the eastern US. The countless amount of different shortwaves embedded in the overall flow also hamper any kind of consistency within the guidance. ANy time we have a trough closing off in our vicinity needs to be watched carefully for any trends in either direction. Right now it appears to be too far east and too weak for our latitude to get anything but rain showers. However as with any system it depends on degree of interaction between streams, northern and southern. This system would appear to be purely southern stream earlier on in its life cycle on the models, however as we have gotten closer to the event it has gotten closer with some northern stream interaction. It is this interaction and the ridging over the Great Lakes that will have a great impact on the final outcome of our system for this time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looking at the various model runs today, the out to sea tracks are favored as a strong upper level trough enters Montana towards hour 72. Its the location of this system's H5 low which determines how much ridging is favored over the Great Lakes for our trough over the eastern US. The countless amount of different shortwaves embedded in the overall flow also hamper any kind of consistency within the guidance. ANy time we have a trough closing off in our vicinity needs to be watched carefully for any trends in either direction. Right now it appears to be too far east and too weak for our latitude to get anything but rain showers. However as with any system it depends on degree of interaction between streams, northern and southern. This system would appear to be purely southern stream earlier on in its life cycle on the models, however as we have gotten closer to the event it has gotten closer with some northern stream interaction. It is this interaction and the ridging over the Great Lakes that will have a great impact on the final outcome of our system for this time period. Perfect example of what I said somewhere else a couple of days ago when it comes to the models. The Euro was initially pretty flat/strung out which appears won't be the case based on the Ens and other models. The GFS "first" had that idea but way overdid it as usual. The Euro meanwhile will likely continue to make minor adjustments to that idea while never going passed the median so to speak. The GFS will continue to correct as it did at 18z. At least i'm 95% sure that's what's happening. Really it's just a matter of some rain vs more rain...it'd take a festivas miracle to wrap this up enough to yield snow in the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 BTW I think we should make sure someone posts the closing PNS at the end of each thread even if it's a blank... if we're doing this to bolster an archive might as well put all that stuff in one place. NAM is interesting for this next system... CYL ocean storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 BTW I think we should make sure someone posts the closing PNS at the end of each thread even if it's a blank... if we're doing this to bolster an archive might as well put all that stuff in one place. NAM is interesting for this next system... CYL ocean storm. That's a great idea. I'm only seeing the NAM out to 51, but it is interesting thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 If you find a whiff interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 If you find a whiff interesting LOL--I just got the 63 hr frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 How's this looking from Concord to the Northwestward? Snow? Rain? No precip? (Besides the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Looks like a POS right now for anybody inland or west away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 How's this looking from Concord to the Northwestward? Snow? Rain? No precip? (Besides the NAM) Some snow showers tomorrow and Monday but that is from the coastal front and not our storm. Not including the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 NAM is over estimating the southern shortwave in my opinion, this shortwave rounds the southeastern part of the trough and sucks the surface low out to sea with it with very little fanfare for New England. However it introduced more backside ridging allowing for a presumably deeper trough, but never deepened the trough enough for SNE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 NAM is over estimating the southern shortwave in my opinion, this shortwave rounds the southeastern part of the trough and sucks the surface low out to sea with it with very little fanfare for New England. However it introduced more backside ridging allowing for a presumably deeper trough, but never deepened the trough enough for SNE coastline. This one is a goner regardless. It was essentially always a debate over sprinkles or more serious rain. I'd lean clouds and maybe some sprinkles. Essentially a wetter potentially slightly windier version of todays event. Not much. There may still be a little wiggle room in terms of a little more "rain" down here but it's probably a goner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 gfs came west at 6z but not enough.. looked better for a bit more rain on the cape though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 What a PHAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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