Sat / Sun Light Snow Event?

[moneypitmike]

Well I could see the cape getting a little OES and then a separate area from CT up into the Berks getting snow-->ice-->rain and points east. It may start over CT and the berks first..then move east. So sort of two separate things.

 

Thanks--I as seeing a fairly even spread of pops, but my sense had been that this was really an eastern piece.  Perhaps because 95% of the board are in central/eastern areas. 

 

22.1/14

top sustained at 22mph, gust to 30mph

[Ginx snewx]

Too many threads, like the Sunday look. My how things trended colder next week.

[dendrite]

6Z NAM/GFS are a little more bullish into NH/MA. Euro is more of a downeast ME special. I have my doubts that this will get cranking in time for anything substantial imby, but it's looking good for ME.

[ORH_wxman]

6Z NAM/GFS are a little more bullish into NH/MA. Euro is more of a downeast ME special. I have my doubts that this will get cranking in time for anything substantial imby, but it's looking good for ME.

 

 

I'd be surprised if anyone had substantial amounts (like >3") out of this. Maybe an isolated spot north of Bangor, ME or something. Looks like a lot of mood snow for many with maybe an inch or so if things break right.

[CoastalWx]

There is a really strong warm tongue at 950-925 on the euro op that would flip any snow to probably ZR or something like that rather quickly. Boundary layer warms a little, but it's too bad the burst of precip seems like it won't last too long as snow down here.

[dryslot]

Nice little event in clown range on the 12z Nam for up here sun, Maybe and inch or two

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Looks like there's support for some OES bands out by Truro/Wellfleet/Eastham later Friday night into morning Saturday before they may shift back towards Phil for a few hours but are likely more broken bands by then and don't last long as winds at 8h go solidly west. Be interesting to watch bands evolve later Friday evening.

Edit: looks a lot like last weekend where we may see bands try to form but not do much. Really looks pretty awful outside of the region from eastham north where even there it's a limited threat

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd be surprised if anyone had substantial amounts (like >3") out of this. Maybe an isolated spot north of Bangor, ME or something. Looks like a lot of mood snow for many with maybe an inch or so if things break right.

Euro continues idea of snow breaking out early Sunday with an inch or so

[CoastalWx]

Euro continues idea of snow breaking out early Sunday with an inch or so

 

Well read my other post.

[CT Rain]

Euro continues idea of snow breaking out early Sunday with an inch or so

 

Please actually look at a model. The Euro has a trace of snow for you. 

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Taunton seems disinterested in our real snow chances this week. Still cool to cold. Plenty of snow being made up north.

I feel like this threat could have been handled in the main thread.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Taunton seems disinterested in our real snow chances this week. Still cool to cold. Plenty of snow being made up north.

I feel like this threat could have been handled in the main thread.

Could see some precip. Think it's probably to warm either way, sadly

[powderfreak]

Probably a 1-3" deal as it looks now...

Sunday...Light snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 30s. South winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Taunton seems disinterested in our real snow chances this week. Still cool to cold. Plenty of snow being made up north.

I feel like this threat could have been handled in the main thread.

lol. Ok.

[HalloweenGale]

Looks to be a -RA event here on this end of the cape. The outer cape will probably see some -SN tonight.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM brings in a bit of snow over SNE late Sat night/early Sun morning from the warm air advection. A majority fo the SREFs do the same thing...so it could be one of those deals where there is some SN- for a few hours and then on Sunday it transitions to drizzle or RA-. Nothing heavy looks in the cards. Any snow looks like mainly under an inch.

 

 

There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the potential Tuesday coastal...but that is a separate system.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

lol. Ok.

 

 

There's threads all over the place.  if we're going to start threads for weak OES signals and a 30-40% of snow/rain showers we might as well have PF start threads for every upslope event he gets that effect six moose and a bunch of skiers. 

 

--

 

12z NAM more favorable for tonight, barnstable/dennis back to maybe exit 2 kind of similar to the 0z Euro.  Wouldn't be surprised if they do generate if the "jackpot" is west of current NOAA forecasts right in that area if it's able to fire at all. 

 

Will you posted as I was posting.  Given right now the minor nature of both events, all I'm saying is it's normally something that can be covered in one thread.  If we do this for every potential threat in a year where we may have many small rapid fire events it'll get tough to follow.

[Tropopause_Fold]

There's threads all over the place.  if we're going to start threads for weak OES signals and a 30-40% of snow/rain showers we might as well have PF start threads for every upslope event he gets that effect six moose and a bunch of skiers. 

 

--

 

12z NAM more favorable for tonight, barnstable/dennis back to maybe exit 2 kind of similar to the 0z Euro.  Wouldn't be surprised if they do generate if the "jackpot" is west of current NOAA forecasts right in that area if it's able to fire at all. 

 

Will you posted as I was posting.  Given right now the minor nature of both events, all I'm saying is it's normally something that can be covered in one thread.  If we do this for every potential threat in a year where we may have many small rapid fire events it'll get tough to follow.

 

huh. well i don't think it's overly difficult to follow. there's a thread for more longer term December discussion. there's a thread for this. and for the purposes of going back and digging through old threads to find information about a specific event...it makes sense to me. i don't see it as very challenging, but that's just me.

[dendrite]

I like how the threads are right now. The November disco is about done...the Dec one is taking off. There's a general obs/banter thread that is about to be retired and finally this thread.

[dendrite]

huh. well i don't think it's overly difficult to follow. there's a thread for more longer term December discussion. there's a thread for this. and for the purposes of going back and digging through old threads to find information about a specific event...it makes sense to me. i don't see it as very challenging, but that's just me.

If I got my way there'd be more threads focused on specific topics, but I lost the battle on that long ago.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

If I got my way there'd be more threads focused on specific topics, but I lost the battle on that long ago.

 

You're wish is my command...just started a thread for the Tuesday event.  Someone should probably fire one up for next weekend too.

 

I guess I understand the theory of an archive but that's why Al Gore invented a search function too I suppose.  I always thought the threshold for separate threads was a reasonable expectation of at least a minor to moderate impact within the region discussed.

 

Phil I get what you're saying but is anyone really going to look back on what happens in the next 24-30 hours and need to bring it up from a historical perspective?

 

[Tropopause_Fold]

If I got my way there'd be more threads focused on specific topics, but I lost the battle on that long ago.

the only time i think it can be challenging is when one event blends into a second and the two become challenging to speak of independently.

 

anyhow...some of the various wrf runs available sort of evolve the first half of this the way some folks were talking about the other day...OE starts on the Mid and Outer Cape and "persists" there for a while...then the flow becomes E and SE and it gets shoved inland a bit (maybe as some light rain/drizzle along the coast and light snow/flurries further inland or northward).

 

then whatever comes through Sat PM/Sun moves through inland regions.  

[CoastalWx]

the only time i think it can be challenging is when one event blends into a second and the two become challenging to speak of independently.

 

anyhow...some of the various wrf runs available sort of evolve the first half of this the way some folks were talking about the other day...OE starts on the Mid and Outer Cape and "persists" there for a while...then the flow becomes E and SE and it gets shoved inland a bit (maybe as some light rain/drizzle along the coast and light snow/flurries further inland or northward).

 

then whatever comes through Sat PM/Sun moves through inland regions.  

 

BTV WRF shows this too.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You're wish is my command...just started a thread for the Tuesday event.  Someone should probably fire one up for next weekend too.

 

I guess I understand the theory of an archive but that's why Al Gore invented a search function too I suppose.  I always thought the threshold for separate threads was a reasonable expectation of at least a minor to moderate impact within the region discussed.

 

Phil I get what you're saying but is anyone really going to look back on what happens in the next 24-30 hours and need to bring it up from a historical perspective?

well...i do it. i don't know about other folks. sometimes i go back digging for minor things just to see what was being discussed leading into it.

 

whatever, it's not a big deal. i only made the thread because at the time, a lot of the going forecasts were for a nice weekend and there were just some signals there that it might snow a bit. likewise, i know everyone doesn't care to read all of my posts about OES chances in the main threads. 

[dendrite]

You're wish is my command...just started a thread for the Tuesday event.  Someone should probably fire one up for next weekend too.

 

I guess I understand the theory of an archive but that's why Al Gore invented a search function too I suppose.  I always thought the threshold for separate threads was a reasonable expectation of at least a minor to moderate impact within the region discussed.

 

Phil I get what you're saying but is anyone really going to look back on what happens in the next 24-30 hours and need to bring it up from a historical perspective?

Different folks, different strokes. I know many prefer everything in 1 thread too. There's many different forums across the internet with different dynamics. Some feature many threads with relatively few posts in them and then there are those like here which become long superthreads with over 1k posts. I don't think there's any right or wrong way as long as the majority are happy.

 

Anyways...the NAM is still trying to sell a couple tenths of precip here Sunday evening, but temps are marginal even for most of C NH.

[Ginx snewx]

HiRes NAM is pretty aggressive with Sun, warm at the ground though

[moneypitmike]

NAM brings in a bit of snow over SNE late Sat night/early Sun morning from the warm air advection. A majority fo the SREFs do the same thing...so it could be one of those deals where there is some SN- for a few hours and then on Sunday it transitions to drizzle or RA-. Nothing heavy looks in the cards. Any snow looks like mainly under an inch.

 

 

There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the potential Tuesday coastal...but that is a separate system.

 

Perhaps a little whitening tomorrow night/Sunday, but probably few will be able to measure anything from it.

 

 

If I got my way there'd be more threads focused on specific topics, but I lost the battle on that long ago.

 

I bet you have everything on your computer and e-mails filed snugly away in folders. 

 

24.9/13

[Clinch Leatherwood]

4km NAM actually brings a decent little event to the cape tonight and coastal PYM county.  We'll see.  Definitely more favorable trends in the last 2 runs from the NAM.  Euro was I thought fairly positive for the area outlined above in last nights run too.

 

WIth the inversion/cap it'll be a matter of it either firing or not I think.  If it gets going may be decent.

[Damage In Tolland]

How Euro look?

[CoastalWx]

How Euro look?

 

Looked like a quick band of maybe some -SN or drizzle moving up from the south and then east. Might start as -SN for you and then go to drizzle or something.