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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion


CAD_Wedge_NC

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Quick look at the 12z big 3 ens means out at day 10...  A brief return to milder conditions between days 7-10, looks short lived, evidence of a PV setting up shop ivo the Hudson Bay.  

 

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Continued ridging into AK coupled with +anoms in the N ATL would argue the long wave axis pushes east.

 

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post-382-0-88701200-1385609531_thumb.gif

 

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I'd keep an eye on this one.  It's been hanging around on the models the past fews days.

 

pyECJpA.gif

 

 

Yeah this has alot of potential.  But watching the models progress developing a deep western to eastern trough is going to take two deep vortexes and this maybe the beginning of the two vortex 500mb low.

 

Crazy to think this is early Dec.

 

gfs_z500a_us_41.png

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Ive noticed somethings over the model runs but seems like the little system it was showing earlier after disappearing has come back.

 

It looks almost certain a deep trough should setup in the west with a sheared piece possibly diving into the s/e causing possible cyclogenesis along the se coast. But how strong.

 

 

But the GGEM

gem_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

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Larry, does the wsw flow trigger your interest more than any other marker?  All the good ones have it, right?  Does it come standard with other variables, or is that the variable you want to start with?  Does it out rank the weak low? T

 

 It probably does. Most good storms have it as it brings in moisture while still allowing for cold near the surface.When I see a surface Arctic high with a center coming across to the north and the southern part of the high making it into the SE US while WSW 500 mb flow is over the top of it, I'm going to look for wintry precip. in the SE US. Many times this setup results in a weak Miller A low moving ENE.

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Both the 0z and 6z GFS runs basically keep the cold centered in the upper Plains throughout the run, with a fairly muted SE ridge. They both, along with the Euro, have the little system off the SE coast around 120 hrs. Weak HP is located way up in Canada, which is not an optimal location. This system looks too warm for most.

Past day 10, the 0z GFS has a nice wintry overrunning event, whereas the 6z has a Lakes cutter. The Euro at 240 just looks terrible. I'm not going to post it, because I don't want to ruin everyone's Thanksgiving. Big, typical -PNA look with a big SE ridge. It does not look to evolve into anything good beyond that period either. Hopefully, the ensembles were better.

One more note on the GFS threats... That model usually suppresses systems too far south in the LR. If the big PV is real, then maybe this time, it will be different. But caution is warranted with any LR threats showing up in the perfect position on that model.

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Both the 0z and 6z GFS runs basically keep the cold centered in the upper Plains throughout the run, with a fairly muted SE ridge. They both, along with the Euro, have the little system off the SE coast around 120 hrs. Weak HP is located way up in Canada, which is not an optimal location. This system looks too warm for most.

Past day 10, the 0z GFS has a nice wintry overrunning event, whereas the 6z has a Lakes cutter. The Euro at 240 just looks terrible. I'm not going to post it, because I don't want to ruin everyone's Thanksgiving. Big, typical -PNA look with a big SE ridge. It does not look to evolve into anything good beyond that period either. Hopefully, the ensembles were better.

One more note on the GFS threats... That model usually suppresses systems too far south in the LR. If the big PV is real, then maybe this time, it will be different. But caution is warranted with any LR threats showing up in the perfect position on that model.

You have to remember, the EURO has always had a bias of holding the energy back in the southwest in the LR. I would suspect that this is the case again. I think that it will change for the better as we approach mid-range.

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You have to remember, the EURO has always had a bias of holding the energy back in the southwest in the LR. I would suspect that this is the case again. I think that it will change for the better as we approach mid-range.

That's a good point. I'm not really that concerned about it yet. It's 240 hrs out, it changes from run to run, and the big SE ridge has yet to verify so far...a trend that hopefully will continue as we head into Winter.

I would, however, like to see some consistency start to show up in the models with regard to blocking and no -PNA.

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Climo almost always wins...and so does a SE ridge when there are few, if any, teleconnectors indicating it can be held in check. Now, a SE ridge is not always bad depending on where you live in the SE. For those of us in TN, we need a displaced ridge slightly east. But right now, and I said it recently, that ridge is a big worry if you like cold winters. It might have very little impact on snow totals in the upper south, however. The SE ridge has been as persistent a feature on LR models as blocking. I have a tendency to think winter will be slightly above to strongly above temp wise...but with several good noreasters. This will be a good winter to live on the west side of the Apps.

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!

Indices not looking good today. NAO, PNA, and AO all indicating the opposite of what we want to see. Hopefully they are wrong or we're looking at a warm pattern, for at least, the next couple of weeks. (maybe)This could setup a flip right before Christmas.

It seems there are two schools of thought this winter:

1) There is no chance of the AO being anything other than predominantly positive. Since the phase of the NAO correlates well with the phase of the AO, the implication is that it will be predominantly positive as well. The PNA will likely be negative due to the negative PDO.

2) The SSTs in the north Pacific do not support the kind of -PNA regime that one would expect in a -PDO year. In fact, the PDO may flip to positive, supporting a +PNA state for the winter. The SSTs in the Atlantic may support a -NAO. The Snow Cover Extent, being abnormally high would support a predominantly -AO state this winter.

So far, Option 1 is looking like the most correct assessment, as any attempt by the LR models to show favorable index alignment is promptly reversed in subsequent run or two. However, we're not into winter yet, so we can't make an evaluation. But, I'm not encouraged with modeling trends so far, regarding the indexes.

The wild card so far has been the anomalous -EPO and the -WPO. This has been overwhelming the otherwise unfavorable pattern which would be in force due to the unfavorable alignment of other indexes. This is encouraging. Also encouraging is the fact that the SE ridge has not been a factor, even though the models continue to foretell it.

We will see.

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Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi1m

850 mb Korean Met A winter forecast. December upper right, Jan lower right, Feb upper left, total lower left. BRRR

BaH3oCsCEAA_vYb.jpg

. When you have to bring out the crazy foreign models to get the look you want, you must be desperate for subscribers! We all know the big three models can barely get the forecast right five days out! I don't know why he would post that rubbish(jb), been very non wintry in most of the NE corridor , I guess that's why? I'm nervous about the arctic air staying west or central! I would love a good single digit lows outbreak in the SE !
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Look for a lot of flipping of models over the next several runs. As with any big storm like yesterday, the models and atmosphere is in reset mode. We are in a good place right now compared to the past 2 years. . The SE ridge is the player that we all need to keep our eye on as the models are in agreement on one thing and it is the cold is coming somewhere in the lower 48.

Have a great THANKSGIVING

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. When you have to bring out the crazy foreign models to get the look you want, you must be desperate for subscribers! We all know the big three models can barely get the forecast right five days out! I don't know why he would post that rubbish(jb), been very non wintry in most of the NE corridor , I guess that's why? I'm nervous about the arctic air staying west or central! I would love a good single digit lows outbreak in the SE !

Lol there it goes again.

The AO being positive should not be a surprise if you have read the October Pattern Index thread. We are expecting a ++AO for DJF. Now look how strongly positive it will be on December 1st. PNA wants to take a vacation in the negative territory.

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We sure don't want an arctic High pressure to be East based if that happens then if u like cold dry weather then that's your set-up! I personnel could care less for bone chilling cold dry weather with northwest winds drying everything out like the Mojave . If u want snow ,ice, and big weather events then I personally think we are stepping in the right direction.

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We sure don't want an arctic High pressure to be East based if that happens then if u like cold dry weather then that's your set-up! I personnel could care less for bone chilling cold dry weather with northwest winds drying everything out like the Mojave . If u want snow ,ice, and big weather events then I personally think we are stepping in the right direction.

 

 I agree. In my mind, I want the trough axis to be centered roughly 750 miles to the west to allow for more opportunities for moist WSW 500 mb flow combining with lower level Arctic air streaming in from the NE from the bottom of the highs with wedging opportunities. Moist WSW (or sometimes SW though SW may make it warm up too much too fast via a too far north surface low track or just not allow enough low level Arctic air far enough south) 500 mb flow is crucial to allow for ample moisture. Along with this comes better chances at Miller A's, which would mean a better shot at the perfect timing of a widespread major winter storm, which isn't easy to get in the SE of course.

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Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has a MAJOR snowstorm for much of the upper SE for 12/7-8. So, a little earlier than the storms shown for the two 12/9-10 on earlier GFS runs. I don't see much ZR/CAD for this one like the others showed. So, this makes three GFS runs over the last two days with a major winter storm for parts of the upper SE within 12/7-10.

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Per 12Z GFS: heaviest snow fior 12/7-8, which is 4-8", is in NE MS, NW AL, E 2/3 of TN, and NW half of NC. That heaviest area of 4"+ stretches from Jackson, MS to RDU, NC with the heaviest (8") toward the middle of the area.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all! Going to be away from PC for the good doctor run.

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While I dont disagree with the models... about it getting cold favoring a deep central and eastern trough and active sjt. I don't really see us warming up much after today. I think there is timing issues and strength issues  on the models still around 96 hours to be figured out but I think its going to get colder sooner rather than later 7-9th. Around the 3-4th. The evolution of this deep ULL diving into the west coast is the key. Does it hold back engery to develop a huge western trough or does it shear out some and remain transit. 

 

Even the potential system around the third could start a good EC trough.  Notice the ridging in Alaska and broad upper trough on the EC.

gfs_namer_102_700_rh_ht.gif

Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has a MAJOR snowstorm for much of the upper SE for 12/7-8. So, a little earlier than the storms shown for 12/9-10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving... 

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