MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 Some of the first single digits of the season showing up in some of the colder PA spots. JST at 9ºF currently, insane for 4 days before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 CTP opted for watches in the far west and northwest of the CWA to match up with Pittsburgh's. Initial snow map (no ice product issued yet): Morning discussion update: .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO HEAD DOWNHILL TUESDAY AS STRONGWARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING/PHASING UPPER TROFBEGINS TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE BEGIN THE DAYCOLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS...BUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ALLSHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS WARM AIR INVADING SOUTHERNPA...BRINGING ABOUT A RAPID CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN...BUT WITH APERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE IN BETWEEN. LOOKING AT STABILITYSHOWS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE STUBBORN TO RETREAT BUT WESHUD STILL MANAGE TO REBOUND OVER FREEZING OVER MOST EASTERNAREAS BY AFTERNOON...MAKING FOR A CHILLY RAIN WITH PERHAPS SOMESLEET. OVERALL IT JUST LOOKS LIKE A COMPLICATED MESS POISED TODEVELOP AND THE RAIN SNOW LINES I DREW THIS MORNING WILL NO DOUBTSHIFT AROUND AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.AT THIS POINT I KEPT THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW OR ASLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX OVER MY WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN.MY FAR NWRN ZONES ARE FAVORED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS BEING ALLOR MOSTLY SNOW WITH 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF THEWINTER STORM WATCH OVER THE LAURELS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME OFSEEING 6 INCHES OF SNOW...BUT BEING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD STORM OFTHE SEASON AND THE EXPECTED HOLIDAY TRAVEL THAT WILL BEOCCURRING...I WENT FOR THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE SNOW/ICE TOJUSTIFY THE WATCH.&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED AS THELOW SLIDES UP ALONG THE COAST OR JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN PA. THEORIENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING LOW...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT COULDACTUALLY BE A SERIES OF WAVES ALONG THE EASTERN FRONTALSYSTEM...WILL MAKE IT HARD TO GET A WIDE AREA OF HEAVY SNOW ON THECOLD SIDE OF THE LOW. THERE IS NO COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH SO THEBULK OF THE PRECIP SEEMS DESTINED TO BE DRIVEN BY A PERIOD OFINTENSE WARM ADVECTION...HINTING THAT THE STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW ONTHE WESTERN FRINGE WILL BE RELATIVELY NARROW WITHIN THE OVERALLPRECIPITATION SHIELD. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO THE COLD AIR ON THEBACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW...WE LOSE THE FORCING AND ANYCHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW TYPICALLY DOESN`T AMOUNT TO MUCH. THE ONLYWAY WE COULD SEE SIG SNOW IN THE AREAS WHERE A CHANGEOVER RESULTSWOULD BE FOR A NEW WAVE OR WAVES TO RIPPLE ALONG THE FRONT AS THECOLD AIR RETURNS...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH SIGN OF THAT AT THISTIME.IN GENERAL...WE DO NOT GET OUR BIGGEST SNOW STORMS FROM LOWSAPPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WITH HIGHS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST.SO FOR THE STORM...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF MY EASTERN COUNTIES WILLSEE A SOAKING RAIN...WITH SOME SORT OF WINTRY MIX OVER MY CENTRALAREAS...AND THE BEST CHANCE OF ALL OR MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NW. THERAIN SHOULD NOT CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES...BUT PLACES THATHAVE NOT CLEARED LEAVES FROM STORM DRAINS COULD SEE SOME MINORPROBLEMS IN THE NORMAL LOW LYING AREAS PRONE TO MINOR FLOODING.OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA THE WINTRY PRECIP WILL BRING THETYPICAL TRAVEL ISSUES THAT OCCUR AS SNOW AND ICE MAKE FORHAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS. ADD IN THAT THIS WILL BE THE FIRSTWIDESPREAD SYSTEM OF THE SEASON COINCIDING WITH HOLIDAYTRAVELERS...AND NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE PROBLEMS ON REGIONALROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Yea every model is too warm for just about everyone reading with a perfect path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Some of the first single digits of the season showing up in some of the colder PA spots. JST at 9ºF currently, insane for 4 days before Thanksgiving.Nasty out there this morning. 12 in Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 18 low for me. Will we go above freezing today? if so, looks like it will be later in the afternoon to me. Looking ahead, it appears we go back to the 40's Sunday/Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably the only bonus to being in a ****hole like Du Bois would be this storm lol You should try living in a ****hole like Tamaqua. Hardly ever see any of the lake effect, almost always get the changeover like MDT, RDG, and ABE, and miss out on any elevation dependent snows by about 7 miles and 1,000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think he was referring to how much of a shat hole the actual town is lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Low 16 last night and we are worried about rain tomorrow. ****ing sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So it would seem we have all this QPF coming in with this system. With no blocking to the north. Also seems like we will be getting over an 1.0 " of rain.I was looking at the soundings and they don't look to good. How much will CAD play into this? Edit: Just wondering is there going to be 2 lows? Or are the models having trouble with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ground is froze here big time but it won't take long to thaw with the super soaker on its way haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The climate station in State College recorded 23/15 yesterday. The 23 beat the old record low high of 25 set in 1903! A trace of snow was also recorded which makes the 10th time this season that a trace or more has been recorded. Tussey mountain was making snow yesterday as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So it would seem we have all this QPF coming in with this system. With no blocking to the north. Also seems like we will be getting over an 1.0 " of rain. I was looking at the soundings and they don't look to good. How much will CAD play into this? Hey pa watch from what I understand CAD will be very limited because we have the wrong wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Low 16 last night and we are worried about rain tomorrow. ****ing sucks. This will be the theme for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Nasty out there this morning. 12 in Bellefonte. We hit 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Low 16 last night and we are worried about rain tomorrow. ****ing sucks. I fully endorse this statement. Low teens here and a rainstorm on the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This will be the theme for the winter. Hope not. Not that into ice storms. Because later in the winter, we would be seeing a lot of ice from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I think he was referring to how much of a shat hole the actual town is lol. So was I... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hahaha williamsport isn't a peach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Low 16 last night and we are worried about rain tomorrow. ****ing sucks. Yup. Regimes with progressive patterns and no blocking suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Had a low of 15. Liberty Mountain fired up the snow guns last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hahaha williamsport isn't a peach! The W-B is no better, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 So the Monday before Thanksgiving is also known as "Trash Your Town Day". HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM is downright warm and a deluge for all posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM still insists on a few inches of snow at UNV on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Thanks Wmsptwx!! Yeah GFS a little cooler than the Nam. Whats the Euro's take on this mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM is downright warm and a deluge for all posters. NAM is giving you a few inches of snow also: WED 7A 27-NOV 1.6 4.9 996 98 94 0.58 551 554 WED 1P 27-NOV 0.7 -1.4 992 92 100 0.18 541 548 WED 7P 27-NOV -1.1 -7.6 997 91 91 0.27 529 531 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM shows backend snow for all, but we know how that works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM shows backend snow for all, but we know how that works out. Not sure what it's supposed to be from...a second wave? If so then that would be a bit better of a scenario than backlash, which rarely works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dang this thing bombs just too late for us on a perfect track!!! Such is November, if this were January it'd be a lot more frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Dang this thing bombs just too late for us on a perfect track!!! Such is November, if this were January it'd be a lot more frustrating. If this were January we'd have a nasty ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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