Mallow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution. Although I agree to an extent, with respect to sensible weather here in State College I don't think the position makes a huge difference at this point. Indeed, the 18z GFS ensembles are very well agreed upon the idea that most of the precip is rain here now, even with the wide range of low locations up the coast. Of course, as you note, the ensembles usually don't capture the full range of possibilities. Still, other than the 18z NAM, we don't have a lot of model support for having more than a couple inches on the ground at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Although I agree to an extent, with respect to sensible weather here in State College I don't think the position makes a huge difference at this point. Indeed, the 18z GFS ensembles are very well agreed upon the idea that most of the precip is rain here now, even with the wide range of low locations up the coast. Of course, as you note, the ensembles usually don't capture the full range of possibilities. Still, other than the 18z NAM, we don't have a lot of model support for having more than a couple inches on the ground at any time. I tend to agree. Better not get our hopes up over this mess of a storm. In fact if this is a snow-mess-snow scenario, the optimistic viewpoint is that we are getting two snow events rather than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Right now the sweet spot seems to be in a triangle from Bradford to Kittanning and Butler. I feel this area has the best shot at staying all snow. Clearfield to Somerset corridor looks to have a shot at 3-6 before mixing to slop before ending as snow or drizzle. The 99 corridor seems to me to get a few inches before a change to slop and then rain. Elevation will determine how long p-types will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I tend to agree. Better not get our hopes up over this mess of a storm. In fact if this is a snow-mess-snow scenario, the optimistic viewpoint is that we are getting two snow events rather than one. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I have yet to see a strung out storm system that ever pans out in the snow department. Those wishing for ice/snow should really temper their expectations, regardless of where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM says big soaker!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM says big soaker!! .59 snow then ice for UNV, then .86 rain through Wed at 7 am. Definitely warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM has big ULL. Crushing on backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Mix of it all. I can see a little snow at the start cause WWA usually sparks off some light snows, then some ice before the rain drubbing. Then snow to end with maybe some good wrap around. We shall see. Either way heck of a messy storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM has big ULL. Crushing on backside. too warm during bulk of precip though... surface low still winds up well northeast out ahead of the upper level energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 too warm during bulk of precip though... surface low still winds up well northeast out ahead of the upper level energy We all know most of the storm is going to be rain. Though this run ends as .5" qpf cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 too warm during bulk of precip though... surface low still winds up well northeast out ahead of the upper level energy about .3 of it is snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM with it's robust wet bias probably...cut everything in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Now my forecast says this: Monday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind becoming northwest 5 to 7 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 sigh... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA702 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013PAZ006-011-012-017>019-045-260015-POTTER-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-702 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHT.LOCALIZED SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ASA BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION. A BRIEF...5 TO 10 MINUTE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL WHITEN THE GROUNDWITHIN THIS BAND...AND LOWER THE VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF OF A MILEOR LESS. THIS ADVERSE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED TO REGION NEAR ANDEAST OF A LINE FROM PINE GLEN...SNOWSHOE AND BELLEFONTE...INCLUDING EMPORIUM...KEATING AND BEACH CREEK..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COASTLATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IT WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OFMODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THEREGION..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHERCONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.$$LAMBERT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CTP is going to have fun with this one. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Looking like UNV SEG and IPT see mainly rain. JamieO, MAG and 2001 I think stand a shot at some nice wintry precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This map is hilarious how it goes out of its way to exclude the greater hbg region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS says gentlemen we have a drought buster!! PIT and north does pretty well from what I can tell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 GFS goes from little light snow, to ice, to a ton of rain, back to some snow. It has gotten better with showing backlash. Hope models keep making that better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How much of an east shift do we need!! Seems like a waste of great qpf lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I want this (from the Pitt thread ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 How much of an east shift do we need!! Seems like a waste of great qpf lol. From the first low, like 100 miles lol. There will be some ice and snow issues, but heavy rain on frozen ground is my main concern. Shame to see a 33 degree rain. Bleh. Not even going to escape it out in Johnstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably the only bonus to being in a ****hole like Du Bois would be this storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably the only bonus to being in a ****hole like Du Bois would be this storm lol That and better les Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Probably the only bonus to being in a ****hole like Du Bois would be this storm lol hahaha truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nimbostratus Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Some 6"+ amounts would be amazing, congrats enjoy the white Turkey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 LMAO just saw that..on your game tonight man haha. Only reason I'm hanging around for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 How much of an east shift do we need!! Seems like a waste of great qpf lol. The track actually isn't really the issue, most guidance suggests a great surface low track for C-PA, unfortunately storm evolution and especially the lack of a high up north really make me pessimistic about this being a widespread significant snow/ice maker. And I am rarely pessimistic when it comes to any event with winter potential. With that said, there is still a reasonable winter threat in roughly the western 1/3 to half the state, with better chances towards NW PA.. and I think a good part of our region may start off with some frozen before WAA floods in on the southerly flow aloft. I just think any 6+ snows are going to be limited to a smaller area, probably generally in NWS Pittsburgh's northern half of their CWA somewhere. That's just my opinion looking at things currently. As the storm lifts up the coast and deepens, there will likely be a changeover (or change back to snow) that will try to swing across the state.. but the fast movement of the system leads me to think precip could shut off and lift to the northeast before cold air support makes it much past the Alleghenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 WJAC Channel 6 just showed what would appear to be a significant CAD win for the central and LSV on their futurecast. Granted it's just graphics and likely to change but from what that showed, places like State College, Altoona, Huntingdon on over to Lewistown and the LSV would want to look out for icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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