Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Any chance this starts as wintry precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Any chance this starts as wintry precip? At IPT, both GFS and NAM have it start as snow before transitioning to ZR, then R before going back to snow on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Any chance this starts as wintry precip? Definitely. All models show it. IPT...first number after NOV is 2M temp, second 850 EURO: TUE 12Z 26-NOV -2.6 -3.9 1026 45 98 0.01 559 539 TUE 18Z 26-NOV -1.3 -2.8 1024 75 98 0.04 559 541 WED 00Z 27-NOV -2.3 0.6 1019 94 97 0.15 559 544 WED 06Z 27-NOV 3.8 3.8 1004 97 100 0.58 557 553 NAM: TUE 7A 26-NOV -2.9 -5.7 1025 91 98 0.02 558 538 TUE 1P 26-NOV 1.2 -3.1 1023 90 99 0.05 559 541 TUE 7P 26-NOV -0.2 1.3 1017 98 97 0.31 559 545 GFS: TUE 12Z 26-NOV -3.7 -4.3 1025 60 98 0.01 559 539 TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.0 -1.9 1022 70 97 0.03 559 542 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.3 1.5 1017 96 100 0.32 559 545 Those imply at least .20-.25 as frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM is downright warm and a deluge for all posters. the NAM also likes to allow for daytime warming of surface temperatures during heavy precip more than it should... I still believe there will be areas that have ice issues somewhere in PA just not sure where... just will be further north and west from MDT region than I first thought last week... I can't wait to see what surface obs are as this moves in to see if winds are easterly as surface... east/southeast winds do strange things around here with forecast temperatures often too high... I can see 34 and rain for MDT... UNV 32 and rain = yikes... even if no ice on roads I can see elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, decks, etc end up icy... that is the worst when you go from a wet road to sudden sheet of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Low 16 last night and we are worried about rain tomorrow. ****ing sucks. Craziest part is that temperatures are in the 30s as far south as Georgia/Alabama and we will have just enough "warm" air coming north to cause p-type changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 the NAM also likes to allow for daytime warming of surface temperatures during heavy precip more than it should... I still believe there will be areas that have ice issues somewhere in PA just not sure where... just will be further north and west from MDT region than I first thought last week... I can't wait to see what surface obs are as this moves in to see if winds are easterly as surface... east/southeast winds do strange things around here with forecast temperatures often too high... I can see 34 and rain for MDT... UNV 32 and rain = yikes... even if no ice on roads I can see elevated surfaces such as bridges, trees, decks, etc end up icy... that is the worst when you go from a wet road to sudden sheet of ice Sounds reasonable to me but seems to be discounted a bit. Guess we will wait and see!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Sounds reasonable to me but seems to be discounted a bit. Guess we will wait and see!! I think they might issue a WWA for both of us for the beginning of this given the timing prior to T-giving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FWIW the GFS now has the backend/second wave/wtf ever it is snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 This storm pisses me off. lol. Here is my whatever guess at this POS. Details: http://www.hwpcwx.org/#!story4/cvho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 NAM shows backend snow for all, but we know how that works out. Is that where the term "freezing your ass off" came from??? Anyway, I can count on one hand how many times back end snows verified with any significance here. It's very rare for my area, perhaps others work out better, but usually the precip shuts off here before any real changeover happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 FWIW the GFS now has the backend/second wave/wtf ever it is snow too. I call it "troll snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The ULL moves directly overhead so the backend stuff makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I can't believe how quick the dang surface warms up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I can't believe how quick the dang surface warms up!! well, the way i look at it, its November. The cold we had yesterday and this morning wasn't normal. The chance we (lower Susq valley) had was a Doug Flutie hail mary from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Who keeps deleting our post? Anyways RGEM shows some decent snow for NC PA then to bad ice. Wonder if surface temps may hold colder. Would be bad if they did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Who keeps deleting our post? Anyways RGEM shows some decent snow for NC PA then to bad ice. not sure. Last week i thought posts were being deleted. If you refreshed the page, they were back, weird but true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Lol any chance of rgem being right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Lol any chance of rgem being right? It's pretty good, ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Who keeps deleting our post? Hi. Lets keep it on topic, feel free to make a banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro has some nasty ice for south central about .25.-3" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 I can't believe how quick the dang surface warms up!! well, the way i look at it, its November. The cold we had yesterday and this morning wasn't normal. The chance we (lower Susq valley) had was a Doug Flutie hail mary from the start. Yeah, in the setup we have, it's ocean temps that are the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hi. Lets keep it on topic, feel free to make a banter thread. Since when do we usually ever keep on topic? lol. Guess i'll make one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Banter thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41792-central-pa-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hey how is Euro looking Zak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro has some nasty ice for south central about .25.-3" of ice. Does it make it are far over as KLNS area? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Hey how is Euro looking Zak? Icy at first to rain then backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Lol any chance of rgem being right? REGM was one of the better models last year in my opinion. It has been locked in on this storm without much change since Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Does it make it are far over as KLNS area? Thanks More HGR to MDT north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 REGM was one of the better models last year in my opinion. It has been locked in on this storm without much change since Friday. RGEM only goes out to 48hrs. GGEM is the longer range one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 High Res Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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