Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Does IPT get any ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Does IPT get any ice? You stay below 32 till about 8pm so whatever fall before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro and Canadian seems to give a respectable ice event to LSV, particularly west of I-83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Euro and Canadian seems to give a respectable ice event to LSV, particularly west of I-83. Say it ain't so Joe........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 an fyi to keep in mind... dont forget that when it may appear as if there is precip on the backside that could be snow, most of those maps show total precip over 3 or 6 hour period when temperature profile is at that present time... sometimes yes it may have temperatures favorable for that whole 3 or 6 hour period but sometimes not... also with an elongated fast moving system like this one I just dont see much developing on the backside that is not generated by Lake Effect other than a quick dusting to an inch for the areas that wind up nearly all rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 RGEM only goes out to 48hrs. GGEM is the longer range one. Thanks for clearing that up. I meant the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 an fyi to keep in mind... dont forget that when it may appear as if there is precip on the backside that could be snow, most of those maps show total precip over 3 or 6 hour period when temperature profile is at that present time... sometimes yes it may have temperatures favorable for that whole 3 or 6 hour period but sometimes not... also with an elongated fast moving system like this one I just dont see much developing on the backside that is not generated by Lake Effect other than a quick dusting to an inch for the areas that wind up nearly all rain... Agreed...backside potential is minimal at best for those outside the lake effect snow regions. Never hang your hat on the wrap around potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Still not above freezing. i think our (lSV) high was to be 35-36 right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Still not above freezing. i think our (lSV) high was to be 35-36 right. Ya supposed to be 36, only at 32. Still got about an hour left though to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Still not above freezing. i think our (lSV) high was to be 35-36 right. Ya supposed to be 36, only at 32. Still got about an hour left though to warm up. CTP had KLNS hitting 36 today. We're at 31, and our forecast was amended to a high of 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 an fyi to keep in mind... dont forget that when it may appear as if there is precip on the backside that could be snow, most of those maps show total precip over 3 or 6 hour period when temperature profile is at that present time... sometimes yes it may have temperatures favorable for that whole 3 or 6 hour period but sometimes not... also with an elongated fast moving system like this one I just dont see much developing on the backside that is not generated by Lake Effect other than a quick dusting to an inch for the areas that wind up nearly all rain... Right...but in our case, it's snow as modeled. From the NAM, for example, the .17 that falls from 1-7 pm and probably some of the .13 that falls is definitely snow. I know what you are saying, but in our case that's definitely modeled as snow. See below: WED 1P 27-NOV 0.1 -4.5 995 93 99 0.13 538 543 WED 7P 27-NOV -1.2 -8.1 1000 90 81 0.17 528 528 THU 1A 28-NOV -4.9 -12.1 1010 82 68 0.01 527 519 Good thing to keep in mind, though, the precip is usually previous 6-hour precip and the temp lines are right at that moment. Agreed...backside potential is minimal at best for those outside the lake effect snow regions. Never hang your hat on the wrap around potential. I don't think this is wrap around but the trailing ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man I was pretty much throwing in the towel on this one... damn Euro weenie maps drawing me back in... still showing nearly 6" for KUNV plus I assume some icing as well.... really don't know what to think! Will be interesting to see CTP's update this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Right...but in our case, it's snow as modeled. From the NAM, for example, the .17 that falls from 1-7 pm and probably some of the .13 that falls is definitely snow. I know what you are saying, but in our case that's definitely modeled as snow. See below: WED 1P 27-NOV 0.1 -4.5 995 93 99 0.13 538 543 WED 7P 27-NOV -1.2 -8.1 1000 90 81 0.17 528 528 THU 1A 28-NOV -4.9 -12.1 1010 82 68 0.01 527 519 I don't think this is wrap around but the trailing ULL. Ratio's probably won't be that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man I was pretty much throwing in the towel on this one... damn Euro weenie maps drawing me back in... still showing nearly 6" for KUNV plus I assume some icing as well.... really don't know what to think! Will be interesting to see CTP's update this afternoon. Those are WxBell maps and are not that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Man I was pretty much throwing in the towel on this one... damn Euro weenie maps drawing me back in... still showing nearly 6" for KUNV plus I assume some icing as well.... really don't know what to think! Will be interesting to see CTP's update this afternoon.I agree it will be interesting to see what CPT has to say. Sounds like it is going to be a sloppy mess. How much wind are we suppose to get with this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ratio's probably won't be that great. Probably normal 10-1. Cold air is going to be rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Those are WxBell maps and are not that good. The hi res one is not bad. The other one is though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Main concern is for icing. A degree is probably going to make a difference. Are we going to sit at 33 or 32 is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 UKMET was a lot colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wow icing could become a worry with recent temps and lows dews currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Most concerned with the icing issue in the valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Those are WxBell maps and are not that good. Oh yeah those snow maps busted bad several times last year on these slop events. Regardless I think we'll see something a little more wintry than this current forecast... Tuesday Night: Rain. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 8 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Wow at Ukmet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 People here already planning to take off tomorrow and have schools canceled. Have I mentioned lately how I hate people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CTP must be pulling their hair out right now. Talk about a challenging forecast. For here at least, I'm expecting WWA for 1-3" front end, changing to sleet/rain... question is will it go back to snow before shutting off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 CTP must be pulling their hair out right now. Talk about a challenging forecast. For here at least, I'm expecting WWA for 1-3" front end, changing to sleet/rain... question is will it go back to snow before shutting off? LWX has ADV out for up to 1" sleet/snow and .10" ice. I would guess CTP would have that come over into the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 People here already planning to take off tomorrow and have schools canceled. Have I mentioned lately how I hate people? Our district is already scheduled off for T-giving. So as i look at timing on the nam, start looks around evening rush hour, i thought it was earlier then that?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Right...but in our case, it's snow as modeled. From the NAM, for example, the .17 that falls from 1-7 pm and probably some of the .13 that falls is definitely snow. I know what you are saying, but in our case that's definitely modeled as snow. See below: WED 1P 27-NOV 0.1 -4.5 995 93 99 0.13 538 543 WED 7P 27-NOV -1.2 -8.1 1000 90 81 0.17 528 528 THU 1A 28-NOV -4.9 -12.1 1010 82 68 0.01 527 519 Good thing to keep in mind, though, the precip is usually previous 6-hour precip and the temp lines are right at that moment. I don't think this is wrap around but the trailing ULL. Right, in this case it would be all snow but just didnt want people who are here trying to learn to see us post those kind of maps and then think it is true for all cases... This is interesting ... Current MOS error from 12z run this morning for 18z today (1:00 eastern)... the positive numbers show MOS forecast temps being too warm as we have noticed here in the east with current temperatures below forecasted values so far today... negative numbers are where current temperatures are warmer than MOS forecasted values... MOS/models are running way too cold in the Midwest and too warm in most of the east as we have noticed with current temperatures below forecasted values here in PA... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MOSERR_CURRENT/framecur.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Main concern is for icing. A degree is probably going to make a difference. Are we going to sit at 33 or 32 is the question. and that is what is so dangerous for the public... leave home and it be 33 and raining and think nothing of conditions a mile or two away that may be that degree colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 My feeling is I will receive about 2-4 inches of snow before sleet and freezing rain cause headaches. Then a couple of inches due to LES afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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