Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Mallow's doing a good job of raining on parades today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'll go out on a limb, DT's thoughts/guess will not pan out for The Lower Susq. valley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Sounds like his thoughts won't pan out as far as Clearfield lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Even that looks pretty bad to me. The 12-hr period with the heaviest precip is also the 12-hour period where 850s could be above 0C. Temporal resolution isn't good enough from those numbers to say whether that 0.28 is falling mostly when 850s are above 0C, or below. And based on the Wunderground maps, it's mostly before. The back-end thump that some of the Euro runs (and other models) have been hinting at is all but gone on the latest Euro... doesn't make it out of WV. Well, having seen enough of these since I've moved here, that's an ice storm. In case you're not aware, the first number is 2M temps, second 850. It seems like a lot of the .85 that falls is at or below 32 F. One thing for the I-99 corridor (not Clearfield) that's a microclimate thing, the majority of the time we hold onto cold air longer than modeled, even to the point where Altoona can be say 50 and we are still at 32 (the Christmas Eve ice storm from several years ago is a good example). Although this doesn't seem to be a class CAD setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'll go out on a limb, DT's thoughts/guess will not pan out for The Lower Susq. valley! He's got a hilariously awful snow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I'll go out on a limb, DT's thoughts/guess will not pan out for The Lower Susq. valley! Betcha that area is much smaller for the update. That's usually how DT does it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Pitt WFO just popped a Winter Storm Watch for almost its entire CWA: GARRETT-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...KINGWOOD...PARSONS312 PM EST SUN NOV 24 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEENCANCELLED.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE RIDGES.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.* SNOW BEGINNING...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT. STEADIERSNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING TUESDAY.* PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW...TUESDAY NIGHT.* PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TRANSITION...SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TORAIN OR SLEET EVERYWHERE FOR A PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANDEVENING. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE INTHE RIDGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION WILLCHANGE BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.* SNOW ENDING...WEDNESDAY.* WINDS...NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TOACCUMULATION OF A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICEACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTERWEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Well, having seen enough of these since I've moved here, that's an ice storm. In case you're not aware, the first number is 2M temps, second 850. It seems like a lot of the .85 that falls is at or below 32 F. One thing for the I-99 corridor (not Clearfield) that's a microclimate thing, the majority of the time we hold onto cold air longer than modeled, even to the point where Altoona can be say 50 and we are still at 32 (the Christmas Eve ice storm from several years ago is a good example). Although this doesn't seem to be a class CAD setup. That's what concerns me the most. 850 flow is out of the south or southwest, not out of the southeast... so I'm not sure how much CAD is going to help us here, at least with snow. I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of the "rain" the models are spitting out is actually ice as far southeast as here... still, the Euro, even if we call most of the "rain" ice, has very little snow here. Maybe an inch or two beforehand, and maybe an inch or two afterwards, at best. Of course, it's not necessarily going to pan out like the Euro suggests, and there are still ensembles which support a snowier solution... but it's hard to ignore when almost all operational guidance has come into general agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Betcha that area is much smaller for the update. That's usually how DT does it. Yep, his 3 step system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 That's what concerns me the most. 850 flow is out of the south or southwest, not out of the southeast... so I'm not sure how much CAD is going to help us here, at least with snow. I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if a lot of the "rain" the models are spitting out is actually ice as far southeast as here... still, the Euro, even if we call most of the "rain" ice, has very little snow here. Maybe an inch or two beforehand, and maybe an inch or two afterwards, at best. Of course, it's not necessarily going to pan out like the Euro suggests, and there are still ensembles which support a snowier solution... but it's hard to ignore when almost all operational guidance has come into general agreement. Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870: Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%. For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night. I don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Yep, his 3 step system! He's been posting here so maybe he'll give us his thoughts/yell at us/call us morons later in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870: Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%. For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night. I don't get it. They have more experience than I do forecasting out here. Could just be that they (like you) know more about local effects than I do. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic. I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 They have more experience than I do forecasting out here. Could just be that they (like you) know more about local effects than I do. Maybe I'm being too pessimistic. I dunno. Like you said, not a classic CAD situation so I don't know. I figured they'd have like "snow, sleet or rain becoming all rain" for Wed night. Their AFD is interesting: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM is weenie material. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Curiously enough, NWS has dropped rain completely from our forecast for 16870: Monday Night A slight chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Southwest wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Freezing rain and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Wednesday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%. For State College just has rain/snow turning to snow by 1 pm and same for Tuesday night. I don't get it. Call me crazy, but I think you guys will ultimately make out pretty decent snow wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Back end dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 BTW new record high low set at 29. Down to 26 now and still light snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 NAM is weenie material. lol I'd certainly take that over what the Euro is showing. And there have been plenty of hints of back-end snows from various models. I was discouraged that the Euro killed most of it, but maybe that's just one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Like you said, not a classic CAD situation so I don't know. I figured they'd have like "snow, sleet or rain becoming all rain" for Wed night. Their AFD is interesting: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Interesting, but not necessarily encouraging (nor does it crush hopes ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Posting the 84HR NAM clown snow maps from an 18z run...talk about a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Posting the 84HR NAM clown snow maps from an 18z run...talk about a weenie. Don't get too wet in Maryland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Don't get too wet in Maryland lol Won't rain that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 He's also posting what looks like a dry slot near him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 BTW new record high low set at 29. Down to 26 now and still light snows. Same here. Had a high of 28. Looking back, December 2012 never had a high that stayed in the 20's with 33 being the lowest max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Won't rain that much. Ya ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I remember when I was young a storm in nj where we got 6" then it was washed away by heavy rain that afternoon. Very depressing. I do if it means there are only a few inches on the ground at the end. I dunno, I've never experienced a storm like this. I would guess that heavy rain, even at 34F, would destroy the snow that falls first and that only the second batch would end up sticking around. Does that sound right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Tuesday Night is coming...man the lifeboats!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 I didn't quite realize just how good the 18z NAM solution was here in State College until now. Snow to a brief period of ice/mix, then back to snow again. Heavy bands of snow at times. Oh, wouldn't it be nice for the 18z NAM to verify? But... it's the 18z NAM. EDIT: Clown map through hr 60, with the second band yet to swing through: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_18z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Call me crazy, but I think you guys will ultimately make out pretty decent snow wise. New NAM looks a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Overall thinking. Still too early for any accumulation call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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