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MAG5035

Central PA - Early December

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Either the GFS really sucks or I am never using any other model again. 0Z will be telling. 12Z Euro ens pretty snowy. Average of about 5" for State College. 

 

KUNV_2013112112_eps_snow_240.png

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In the Euro depiction, the active northern stream shortwaves are preventing much sustained confluence at 500 mb that would promote anticyclogenesis in QB and low-level cold air. This also results in a weaker baroclinic zone oriented more perpendicular to the east coast. The SE/SSE flow ahead of the system leads to a broad area of warm air advection and the development of a storm that is elongated and more frontal in nature.

There's also the feedback of the elongated cold air advection on the backside of the system lowering heights and spreading out the vorticity in the meridional direction. In short, this makes it difficult for snowfall to occur outside of a band of lower QPF anafrontal precip on the western edge of the storm.

Definitely agree, the Euro solution taken at face value is quite marginal and probably just a rain event for the Sus Valley, while barely conducive for snow for the central mountains where there is less QPF (AOO/UNV/IPT corridor). Basically the Euro's about where it was a couple days ago with more of a track along the coastline but with the displaced cold air mass.

While i'm on that point, I'm going to present two vendor sources of the Euro snowmap.. and if that's not cool with the mods I'll take them down. But I look and I wonder how in the world are the snow algorithms calculated on some of these different sources. Clearly the AccuPro snow map is the more realistic of the two... but geesh the other one thinks Harrisburgs gettin well over a foot.

And I got this one off of Jb's Twitter...both are to 180 hours (and also 10:1 ratio):

post-1507-0-29605300-1385074979_thumb.pn

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Chasing snowstorms 6+ days out isn't good for your health, fellas. Proceed with caution ...

 

We are tracking a storm, that will happen. Results are yet unknown. Rain or snow who knows. Cut off will have to move north eventually. 

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Chasing snowstorms 6+ days out isn't good for your health, fellas. Proceed with caution ...

 

Every year and threat we know not to get our hopes too high too far out, but it’s sorta like rooting for a baseball team.  If you start on opening day, and you win the world series series it’s soooo much sweeter.  Why should this be different?  If we “root” for a storm 8 days out and it hits, awesome.  If not, there’s always the next one.  Here’s to many wins (storms) this year!

 

BTW, enjoy everyone’s contribution to this great regional board!! :thumbsup: 

 

 

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Every year and threat we know not to get our hopes too high too far out, but it’s sorta like rooting for a baseball team.  If you start on opening day, and you win the world series series it’s soooo much sweeter.  Why should this be different?  If we “root” for a storm 8 days out and it hits, awesome.  If not, there’s always the next one.  Here’s to many wins (storms) this year!

 

BTW, enjoy everyone’s contribution to this great regional board!! :thumbsup: 

 

 

 

Do you have the bigger photo of your profile picture? I been looking for that funny map. 

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One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

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Legendary

 

Oh wow lol that is hall of fame worthy... I'm sure the US Virgin Island snow weenies were jumping off cliffs being in the screw zone for that storm. 

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One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

Shut up Jamie, your climate IS stupid.

You're right though, we're more midatlantic than cpa.

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Either the GFS really sucks or I am never using any other model again. 0Z will be telling. 12Z Euro ens pretty snowy. Average of about 5" for State College. 

 

 

I'd normally be playing the GFS southeast bias card heavily with this type of deal at this range but I also wonder if the progressive theme to the pattern could be playing more into the GFS's wheelhouse over the more wound up Euro... esp after the GFS scored on the busted coastal threat earlier in the month. Should be interesting to watch.

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From Joe Bastardi.

 

"ECWMF weeklies below normal from ne through lakes into southern central rockies every 7 day period through 22dec starting Monday"

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One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

 

Yeah, climo is far more unfavorable right now in the far SE corner of CTP's area so it's tough for us but I did cash in on the October 29th 2011 storm so I'm always hopeful. 

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One thing that I lol at a bit every year here because it's an annual thing...LSV guys, we don't have your climate up here, so saying it's too early to pay attention to storm systems may apply to you to a degree but not up here. We've already had accumulating snow. Besides, with the pattern coming up and the recent colder weather, I'd say up here we're more or less already in winter.

 

I mean, in any year, thinking it might snow on UNV on Nov. 26-27 isn't exactly claiming a UFO will land on the 50 yard line at Beaver Stadium...

Oh most definitely. I just meant getting really hng up on model to model runs right now isn't good for the blood pressure, ha.

I had like 9" snow last season, I'm not counting anything until I can photograph it this year for me. Ha.

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Duh, everyone knows the only analysis you need is:

 

Me in NEPA = UNV Blizzard

naah. it'll be state college gets some, i-81 gets clocked, i-78 gets iced over like no tomorrow, and the philly/central NJ people complain because they'll get slushed out.

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canadian by T+102 is a bit further east with its low than the GFS in the gulf of Mexico (GFS south of LCH while the Canadian would be due south of MOB).

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you sure with that? Canadian at 120 has the 570 thickness from MHX to GNV, and the 546 line from PHL to BNA and MSY. Does NC/SC get drenched, yea. but snow, only at the TN border near the smokies.

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you sure with that? Canadian at 120 has the 570 thickness from MHX to GNV, and the 546 line from PHL to BNA and MSY. Does NC/SC get drenched, yea. but snow, only at the TN border near the smokies.

 

South central and north central. Talking about pa here, lol. 

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LOL who was responsible for that map!! I remember it but not who posted it.

 

His name was EDH1981... I remember when he posted that map. About 5 pages of pure mockery followed lol

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if anything, the canadian is suggesting a classic path for big snow from PIT and JST/AOO into IPT, AVP, and the Catskills; going by ACY, eastern Long Island, then up the Bay of Fundy and through PEI up towards the Gulf of St Lawrence.

 

you'll have to do some mental subtraction here. but the pre-storm snow totals are t+102 graphic link below:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/global/2013112200/2013112200_054_G1_east_I_QPFTYPES_sn_102.png

 

and post-storm snow totals would be at T-168 link below

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/global/2013112200/2013112200_054_G1_east_I_QPFTYPES_sn_168.png

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