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MAG5035

Central PA - Early December

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Is this just a tongue-in-cheek post, or is this a scenario that has real potential? I'm right in the heart of the I-81 corridor and have a very busy Thanksgiving week planned as my mother is visiting us from Arizona.

i was thinking tongue and cheek when i wrote it, but given the Canadian scenario and what may be an interesting set of model runs coming up, it may actually pan out.

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This times a million.

 

It was mentioned before but be careful with those snowfall maps. They often don't jive with 1000-850 mb thicknesses or temperature profiles in the warmer areas.

 

 

This times a million.

yea a number of them are based on surface temperatures being below 32 degrees for at least 6 hours which is easy in longer range due to modelings factoring more climatology... no factor of any warm/cold air advection, thickness, or any other temperature profile as well as not accounting for what may be lost due to evaporation or quick melting due to light rates

 

All they are good for is to build hype for those people/groups that profit from wintry weather and that sort of thing... *cough* Boreas *cough*...

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This times a million.

WxBell maps are awful

 

Jamie, any chance you guys up there go single digits, Sunday/Monday?

I am thinking that's a better chance for Friday morning if we have snowcover. Gonna suck for Black Friday shoppers. 

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We all have a chance with this one, possibly. 

Hopefully for you guys the storm can phase a little quicker. If the southern stream runs out ahead of the northern stream, it risks being a sheared-out type storm that might have a little snow on the NW end but besides that just rain. The DGEX this morning (I know, it's the DGEX) shows what you want-the northern and southern streams are close enough to make for a very heavy band of snow that rides the Apps. Behind it, there's temps in the single digits for lows and probably well over a foot of snow cover. How's that for the end of November?

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 The DGEX this morning (I know, it's the DGEX) shows what you want-the northern and southern streams are close enough to make for a very heavy band of snow that rides the Apps. Behind it, there's temps in the single digits for lows and probably well over a foot of snow cover. How's that for the end of November?

 

Expect 65 degrees and sunny.

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yet another 12z GFS run where it develops that low set to track just north of Great Lakes stronger than 0z... therefore keeping the cold air further south as the high departs Tuesday/Wednesday and keeping 850 temps below 0 for nearly all of PA next week... which as a result keeps our system of interest just south and east

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yet another 12z GFS run where it develops that low set to track just north of Great Lakes stronger than 0z... therefore keeping the cold air further south as the high departs Tuesday/Wednesday and keeping 850 temps below 0 for nearly all of PA next week... which as a result keeps our system of interest just south and east

 

And the forecast ridge to our west at 500mb is significantly farther east and flatter on this run, thus everything is a bit more progressive and the phase happens later. On this run, big changes at H5...especially out over the Pacific, causing the trough/ridge pattern to appear significantly different. 

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No progressive/dry pattern.

Oh, sure, that. The other theme is warmups going away. The Euro Weeklies have lost the big December warmup. 

 

One thing, a lot of other mets are much more impressed with the chances for a storm the following week. Potential for blocking plus a STJ. 

 

This really does remind me of 2002, minus the Nino. There was a huge bust in late November with a storm that had Winter Storm Watches out for it, then the first week of December we got the Nov 5 storm. 

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Oh, sure, that. The other theme is warmups going away. The Euro Weeklies have lost the big December warmup. 

 

One thing, a lot of other mets are much more impressed with the chances for a storm the following week. Potential for blocking plus a STJ. 

 

This really does remind me of 2002, minus the Nino. There was a huge bust in late November with a storm that had Winter Storm Watches out for it, then the first week of December we got the Nov 5 storm. 

was to be 11-26-02 ended up with 1 1/2" then December 5th we got the 6.5-7"

 

 

 

anyone know what happened to Tombo from the philly thread? haven't seen him posting

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A quick look at 2m temps in 12Z GFS fantasyland for the first week of December shows low single digit numbers for LNS. Wow! Good chance that doesn't verify however the fact that its even there shows that there is some seriously cold air to draw into CPA. Seems like December starts with a real shot at being colder than the last few years.

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A quick look at 2m temps in 12Z GFS fantasyland for the first week of December shows low single digit numbers for LNS. Wow! Good chance that doesn't verify however the fact that its even there shows that there is some seriously cold air to draw into CPA. Seems like December starts with a real shot at being colder than the last few years.

a 1040mb high will do that in december... lol

 

the upper level energy that will eventually become the midweek system is coming on shore today correct? anyone know?

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unfortunately I dont have quick access to much upper level Euro data (like 500mb level because it seems like something strange is going on) but 12 pulls 850mb 0C line and 540dm thickness line further north and west... timing more into overnight hours Tuesday-Wednesday than morning/early afternoon Wednesday like 0z had

 

phl seems to be the winner on the 12z GFS

and is the winner for heaviest rain on 12z Euro lol

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unfortunately I dont have quick access to much upper level Euro data (like 500mb level) but 12 pulls 850mb 0C line and 540dm thickness line further north and west... timing more into overnight hours Tuesday-Wednesday than morning/early afternoon Wednesday like 0z had

 

and is the winner for heaviest rain on 12z Euro lol

 

I'm no met, but I think that the rain is far more plausible.

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I'm no met, but I think that the rain is far more plausible.

 

Agreed. If you take the 12z Euro grid interpolations verbatim, for MDT there'd be a quick dusting of snow at the onset before 850s torch and they go over to rain (just under 1.5" of it too). Lancaster, York, Gettysburg could see some flakes initially, but it would be a quick change-over. The entire event would be done on Wednesday morning. 

 

UNV stays frozen the entire time and picks up 3-6" of snow.

 

IPT is all frozen...3-6" of snow

 

Again, that's just the pure grid interpolations from the 12z Euro via the Accuweather Pro website. 

 

A nighttime arrival would argue for a colder solution, but that's about it...there's just not enough northern stream interaction for below 0c temps throughout the column for the entire event (with the exception of NW of MDT...but there you'll be shorted on precip). 

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