Atomixwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From Steven DiMartino, NYNJPAWeather.com If the new 12Z ECMWF is right, everyone is in for a very heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Details this evening. Keep in mind, his "area of focus" usually stops just west of Philadelphia so he could be addressing a more coastal/inland solution. Not exactly sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From Steven DiMartino, NYNJPAWeather.com If the new 12Z ECMWF is right, everyone is in for a very heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Details this evening. Keep in mind, his "area of focus" usually stops just west of Philadelphia so he could be addressing a more coastal/inland solution. Not exactly sure. It's certainly warmer/wetter than the previous run. At UNV it's snow->ice->rain, and I'm guessing it'll be back to snow before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Wow Euro is very wet! Could be a horrible travel day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Too damn early in the season to be getting upset about cold rain. Personally, I wonder if this could end up being a repeat of the March storm from last season where warm ocean temperatures played a bigger role than expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 No mention of the snow squall currently heading southward through PA? They reported heavy snow out of it in DuBois: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=kduj&num=60&banner=on http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CCX&brand=wui&num=12&delay=10&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5&noclutter=0&t=1254093153&lat=40.77746&lon=-77.853&label=Mallow%27s+Apartment&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=374¢ery=191&transx=-26&transy=-49&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 From DT: *** VERY IMPORTANT STATEMENT FROM WXRISK COMING IN 15 MINUTES ABOUT TODAYS MODELS ..took some time to get out of the office.. and of course when I do all hell breaks losethe 12z SATURDAY GFS is a fooking nightmare. it has 2 lows.. ( which others have as well.). The first one moves off the Middle Atlantic Coast and ignores the r New England area completely and brings the lower Middle Atlantic some rain. BUT the 12z GFS delays the 2nd Low which allows for the arctic HIGH to build a new surge of cold air into New England anf the Middle Atlantic. The second low comes north on Thanksgiving Day which brings a substantial snowstorm to portions of North Carolina and Virginia then hesads out to sea.As much as I would love to see a snowstorm in Virginia and North Carolina from the 2nd Low n thanksgiving-- even though that is what the12zGFS is showing-- I cannot in good conscience support this ridiculous idea. Shortly Iwll go to a lot more detail but keep in mind that this is the 8 consecutive model run of the operationalGFS and every single run has been vastly different from anything else.The midday European model not only is NOT out to sea but it is so far inland that it drives extremely MILD temperatures during the r height of the storms as far north as Boston and New York City. It's a huge system with a tremendous a matter rain on the coast and big snows and the mountains. Whether the European model is overdone or roo far inland is still of course amount of water and certainty.But at least the damn European model has CONSISTENCY ith its solutions something the wretchedly awful GFS seems utterly incapable of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's funny, if anything the GFS has been more consistent than the Euro, which has waffled east and west. Neither has been EXTREMELY consistent or EXTREMELY inconsistent. I don't think the GFS solution is ridiculous, though I would agree that it's not the most likely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 No mention of the snow squall currently heading southward through PA? They reported heavy snow out of it in DuBois: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=kduj&num=60&banner=on http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CCX&brand=wui&num=12&delay=10&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.5&noclutter=0&t=1254093153&lat=40.77746&lon=-77.853&label=Mallow%27s+Apartment&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=374¢ery=191&transx=-26&transy=-49&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Its just starting to snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's funny, if anything the GFS has been more consistent than the Euro, which has waffled east and west. Neither has been EXTREMELY consistent or EXTREMELY inconsistent. I don't think the GFS solution is ridiculous, though I would agree that it's not the most likely scenario. So what is it that is making the model solutions so far apart? The GFS has it so far out to sea that nobody north of DC really sees any precipitation while the Euro is depicting an inland and very wet solution where even State College changes over for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 It's funny, if anything the GFS has been more consistent than the Euro, which has waffled east and west. Neither has been EXTREMELY consistent or EXTREMELY inconsistent. I don't think the GFS solution is ridiculous, though I would agree that it's not the most likely scenario. Exactly... if anything the models have shown us all of the possible solutions depending on how the southern energy interacts with the northern stream... no interaction - GFS like and out to sea partial interaction - system close to coast bringing heavy rain to i-95 and some snow in higher elevations over central pa full phase - system pulled way inland, very strong, and very wet with a good bit of rain with some rain to snow for those that are lucky to get the cold air pulled in on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 So what is it that is making the model solutions so far apart? The GFS has it so far out to sea that nobody north of DC really sees any precipitation while the Euro is depicting an inland and very wet solution where even State College changes over for a time. My guess is a lot of it has to do with how they're handling the northern-stream system over Alaska and the Yukon. That area is notoriously poorly modeled (in my experience). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Its just starting to snow here. ground has been whitened...still snowing but lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 My guess is a lot of it has to do with how they're handling the northern-stream system over Alaska and the Yukon. That area is notoriously poorly modeled (in my experience). Ok thanks. It sure is frustrating to see the models so far apart so many times in their solutions to a potential event almost every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 ground has been whitened...still snowing but lightly. Looks like it's falling apart for us here in State College. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Moderate snow with a dusting currently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 There's actually a pretty decent agreement between the Canadian, Euro, and also the NAM that is just starting to get this storm into it's range. But the GFS is definitely sitting on it's own right now and it's not even close. Other models are really starting to capture this storm..but due to the lack of a cold high in place, it's just too much and everybody becomes too warm. Heavy_wx's explanation about the weaker baroclinic zone the other day comes to mind as well with this setup. At any rate, the Euro/Canadian/NAM still suggest a bit of a mess in interior central PA.. all starting as snow and going over to mix/rain. Canadian looked to be the most wintry, with several hours of snow yielding to several hours of freezing rain in places like AOO and UNV. Given that the GEFS has generally been at least somewhat supportive of more of a wound up system in the face of the more supressed operational... I tend to think the GFS will eventually get it's act together soon and start coming towards all the other guidance. Then we will see what kind of give and take the Euro and Canadian offer and if they back off of their wound up solutions any in later runs. Canadian was actually quite a bomb today, winding this thing all the way to 968 just across the Maine/Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Moderate snow with a dusting currently here. Still waiting on it down here, skies are getting pretty dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like it's falling apart for us here in State College. Oh well. When I was at school there, that was the norm. Only around 2X a year did a band make it to town and put down a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Looks like it's falling apart for us here in State College. Oh well. Sometimes when i was there I was hoping some disgruntled met students would take a ride out to the Allegheny front west of us and blow it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 When I was at school there, that was the norm. Only around 2X a year did a band make it to town and put down a few inches. This isn't lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Went from 38 to 31in about 10 minutes with flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Gross. lol. Trading in my car for a boat to get to Johnstown. Big time ice this run for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Lol it's the nam. However, I would take that rain we need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 This is probably for the snowband entering NW Clearfield County right now. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA335 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013PAZ005-006-010>012-017>019-024-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053-232200-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA-COLUMBIA PA-ELK PA-MCKEAN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-POTTER PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA-SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA-UNION PA-335 PM EST SAT NOV 23 2013...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECTCAMERON...CLEARFIELD...CLINTON...ELK...LYCOMING...NORTHEASTERNUNION...NORTHERN CAMBRIA...NORTHERN CENTRE...NORTHERNMONTOUR...NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...POTTER...SOUTHEASTERN MCKEAN...SULLIVAN AND TIOGA COUNTIES...AT 324 PM EST...A COLD FRONT WAS PRODUCING SEVERAL BANDS OF SNOWSHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED SQUALLS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL PA. THESNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF CAMBRIA...CAMERON...CENTRE...CLEARFIELD...CLINTON...COLUMBIA...ELK...LYCOMING...MCKEAN...MONTOUR...NORTHUMBERLAND...POTTER....SULLIVAN...TIOGA AND UNION COUNTIES AT 324 PM EST...AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEASTAT 35 MPH.WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SNOW SQUALLS. THE SNOWWILL RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A MILE. THE SNOW WILLFALL ONTO WARM ROAD SURFACES...WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO QUICKLY MELTAND THEN RE-FREEZE. THIS COULD CREATE VERY ICY CONDITIONS IF THEROAD SURFACE IS UNTREATED.THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 15...ROUTE 119...ROUTE 219...ROUTE 220...ALTERNATE ROUTE 220...ROUTE322...STATE ROAD 14...STATE ROAD 26...STATE ROAD 118...STATE ROAD120...STATE ROAD 153...STATE ROAD 255...STATE ROAD 350. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That particular band is pretty impressive on cams in Du Bois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 That particular band is pretty impressive on cams in Du Bois its heading right for me...hope it hold its intensity.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Ya, that's the one the hi-res NAM has been showing all along. Hopefully it holds together, like the hi-res NAM suggests it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 its here..the hardest it has snowed all day and very windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 Pretty nice burst of snow ahead of this major band that's on the way, got a coating on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 23, 2013 Share Posted November 23, 2013 Maybe the GFS will catch on this century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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