November Weather Discussion

[HIPPYVALLEY]

20F here atm.  Coldest reading of the season here so far.

[moneypitmike]

20F here atm.  Coldest reading of the season here so far.

 

Congrats!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I meant it in a way that there is overwhelming support from the guidance, thats all. Definitely not trying to say the 11-15 day models are a lock every time...And to be fair in this instance, New England is actually shown as normal for the 11-15 day period. I'd be inclined to edge warmer than that if that pattern happened, but verbatim the torch doesn't dominate new england.

I think the +AO is going to be a big problem this winter, however, i'm not going to sulk over a bad pattern in mid-Novy.

If you're right about the +ao that'd be a major disappointment.

November is a transition month and as Will states we go through these fluxes each year with the board. It's so early in the year, IMHO even a random event "butterfly effect" type deal can change the outcome but it'll be interesting to see how things look over subsequent Mondays as thanksgiving approaches.

[Ginx snewx]

Some of CPC ensemble indices are starting to see the post mid month phase change I talked about last week. Will revisit next week again, could be too early but it is my thought we see a big change coming up the near the 20th or so.

[ORH_wxman]

No improvement in the 11-15d ecens last night. We wait.

 

 

The mildness is coming...its been pretty steadfast on this now for 3-4 straight runs and other guidance is starting to catch on. The big question is if its just transient or something that tries to settle in as we get into December.

[CapturedNature]

Actually, their average yesterday was 35.7* (per Wunderground).  They will do it today though if they can stay below 46, which should be easy to do per forecast.

 

I do my average by meteorological day (7a-7a) so I was basing that off there high yesterday and low today but as you mentioned, they should be able to do that today.  It's pretty neat when you pull in your first day like that.

[toronto blizzard]

Some of CPC ensemble indices are starting to see the post mid month phase change I talked about last week. Will revisit next week again, could be too early but it is my thought we see a big change coming up the near the 20th or so.

Agree with this except I'll say after the 25th the change really starts but nice to see "The Big 3" all trending in the right direction

[wxmanmitch]

16.9° F for a low this morning. We decoupled around 10 PM last night and free fell until daybreak. Heavy frost covering everything this morning.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Congrats!

I'll hopefully get a weather station on line in the next few weeks. This is such a cold spot it will be fun to see it contrast to other sites in the area.

Elevated little valley backed up to the hills makes this neighborhood an ice box in the cold months.

[Snowstorms]

31.5. Might be able to beat that tonight with light winds even on a hill.

Nice any frost? Had my first first freezing temps of the season back in october already.

Got down to 22F last night, very cold and below the average low of 34-35F in my area..

[Tropopause_Fold]

Some of CPC ensemble indices are starting to see the post mid month phase change I talked about last week. Will revisit next week again, could be too early but it is my thought we see a big change coming up the near the 20th or so.

trust those as far as you can throw 'em. 

[moneypitmike]

I do my average by meteorological day (7a-7a) so I was basing that off there high yesterday and low today but as you mentioned, they should be able to do that today.  It's pretty neat when you pull in your first day like that.

 

I never realized they did it as 7-7.  So when they calculate the average temp for a day, which day of the calendar do they apply it to?

 

I'll hopefully get a weather station on line in the next few weeks. This is such a cold spot it will be fun to see it contrast to other sites in the area.

Elevated little valley backed up to the hills makes this neighborhood an ice box in the cold months.

 

That'll be great.  I had always assumed the g'field one closest to your reality was the one at GCC.  It'll be great getting yours further up.

 

30.8/14

[CoastalWx]

Nice any frost? Had my first first freezing temps of the season back in october already.

Got down to 22F last night, very cold and below the average low of 34-35F in my area..

 

To dry and windy for frost.

[CoastalWx]

-NAO won't do much if all it's doing is shoving Pacific vomit into New England.

[TalcottWx]

Everything performing as planned in this pattern. Nothing to suggest significant change either. Still thinking around 25th earliest pattern change. Just an approximate guess.

[CapturedNature]

I never realized they did it as 7-7.  So when they calculate the average temp for a day, which day of the calendar do they apply it to?

 

 

That'll be great.  I had always assumed the g'field one closest to your reality was the one at GCC.  It'll be great getting yours further up.

 

30.8/14

 

I started as a coop observer back in the mid-80s where you record the max/min at 0700.  I just basically reset the thermometer and empty the rain gauge at that time.  This morning (11/4) I recorded yesterday's high and this morning's low.  It's basically a meteorological day as opposed to a calendar day.  I've been recording that way ever since and sometimes when I look at morning lows I look at yesterday's max to see where it came down from.  The average would be the standard max+min/2 and is recorded with the daily readings.

[ORH_wxman]

-NAO won't do much if all it's doing is shoving Pacific vomit into New England.

 

 

You need a fairly cold antecedent airmass in Canada for a -NAO to help out with an AK vortex...this actually happened the first 10 days or so of January 2009. We should have furnaced in that PAC pattern, but a big -NAO saved us and we treaded water instead...Canada had previously been dumped with cold air so we managed to stay semi-cold while we waited for the vortex to die off...which it did. We reverted to a big -EPO and the rest of that month was frigid despite us losing the -NAO.

[CoastalWx]

You need a fairly cold antecedent airmass in Canada for a -NAO to help out with an AK vortex...this actually happened the first 10 days or so of January 2009. We should have furnaced in that PAC pattern, but a big -NAO saved us and we treaded water instead...Canada had previously been dumped with cold air so we managed to stay semi-cold while we waited for the vortex to die off...which it did. We reverted to a big -EPO and the rest of that month was frigid despite us losing the -NAO.

 

With the shape of that trough..it's really only going to keep NW Canada cold. That's why it's not a lock early in the season with a -NAO. It better be dam cold in Canada and with the pattern progged..it won't do much for winter wx around here I think.

[moneypitmike]

I started as a coop observer back in the mid-80s where you record the max/min at 0700.  I just basically reset the thermometer and empty the rain gauge at that time.  This morning (11/4) I recorded yesterday's high and this morning's low.  It's basically a meteorological day as opposed to a calendar day.  I've been recording that way ever since and sometimes when I look at morning lows I look at yesterday's max to see where it came down from.  The average would be the standard max+min/2 and is recorded with the daily readings.

 

But they report average daily highs/lows on calendar days.  How are those two methods reconciled? 

 

Back to weather at hand....a slow climb here at the pit.  Only up to 35.1/15 at noon.  Could be setup for another early cool down this evening.

[SouthCoastMA]

gonna need days / nights like today tonight to get those SST's down, as shortlived as they are. every little bit helps when you live 6 miles from the water

[mahk_webstah]

Am I crazy to feel pretty good about all of this?  We've been cooling off, had a couple miserable rainy days, I am slowly using the wood stove more, we are in an up and down pattern and it is the beginning of November.  The pattern will likely change, and that will happen at the best time of the year.  This seems pretty good up here in NNE.  I mean, an early snowstorm can be fun but I prefer a normal gradual step down, and that seems to be happening.  We just might flip at the right time around thanksgiving, and that would be great.

[ORH_wxman]

Am I crazy to feel pretty good about all of this?  We've been cooling off, had a couple miserable rainy days, I am slowly using the wood stove more, we are in an up and down pattern and it is the beginning of November.  The pattern will likely change, and that will happen at the best time of the year.  This seems pretty good up here in NNE.  I mean, an early snowstorm can be fun but I prefer a normal gradual step down, and that seems to be happening.  We just might flip at the right time around thanksgiving, and that would be great.

 

 

If we actually flip back to a colder regime around T-day, that would be nice...however, most indications right now are that we will have trouble getting cold anomalies past the 15th or so. Maybe that will change or be short-lived, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes through the end of the month.

[CapturedNature]

But they report average daily highs/lows on calendar days.  How are those two methods reconciled? 

 

If by they you mean WU, they don't.  The readings there would be calendar day.  I was just looking at my own readings and yesterday's high there and this mornings low and coming up with my own average.  Sorry for the confusion and going OT.

[jamesnichols1989]

I would venture to guess that the -PNA and +NAO pattern will stay with us for the next few weeks at least, perhaps until Thanksgiving.  However that doesn't mean we can't get a Northern New England snowstorm this weekend.  I say a 4-6" swath from Green Bay, Wisconsin through Portland, ME before the disturbance phases with the polar vortex over Hudson Bay this weekend.  Right now I'd say the Pacific needs to get better before we put our hopes up for a pattern change.  NAO is really not a major factor when it comes to producing a snowstorm, it is important to strength and duration of a snowstorm especially if a block occurs, allowing a phase to be realistic rather than pure speculation.  I want to see the PNA change before a pattern change is realistic enough to believe in.  The PNA pattern is much more direct and precise when it comes to our big snowstorms, while it's not 100%, it is certainly high when it comes to the PNA developing something versus the NAO pattern.  +PNA is what we need.  -EPO leads to troughiness over the Northeastern Pacific allowing energetic disturbances to move through the flow over the PNA ridge and downstream into the eastern US trough that develops due to upstream developments.

[snowman21]

But they report average daily highs/lows on calendar days.  How are those two methods reconciled?

For co-op sites that don't report midnight to midnight, an adjustment to the monthly average temperature is made to account for the timing difference. Many co-ops (not sure on the exact percentage) use the MMTS system, and it's digital and auto resets at midnight so that alleviates that problem. Also the calendar day is midnight to midnight standard time, so for half the year the climo day runs 12AM-12AM and the other half 1AM-1AM.

[jamesnichols1989]

12z EURO is close to bringing a full out snowstorm for New England, its a great step forward if that's what you want in early November.  However my gut feeling tells me that this stays north for Northern New England and just misses most of SNE.

[moneypitmike]

Am I crazy to feel pretty good about all of this?  We've been cooling off, had a couple miserable rainy days, I am slowly using the wood stove more, we are in an up and down pattern and it is the beginning of November.  The pattern will likely change, and that will happen at the best time of the year.  This seems pretty good up here in NNE.  I mean, an early snowstorm can be fun but I prefer a normal gradual step down, and that seems to be happening.  We just might flip at the right time around thanksgiving, and that would be great.

 

I'm right there with you--lots of bridge jumpers poised to go.  I don't see why--I would never sense doom and gloom by indices presented in early November.  Sure, might be a stinker, but let's give it a chance!

 

Welcome back to the board--you've been absent.

 

 

If by they you mean WU, they don't.  The readings there would be calendar day.  I was just looking at my own readings and yesterday's high there and this mornings low and coming up with my own average.  Sorry for the confusion and going OT.

 

I mean you can look here and see norms on calendar date.  How are the dates determined if the daily reporting straddles dates?

 

36.3/13

[weathafella]

12z EURO is close to bringing a full out snowstorm for New England, its a great step forward if that's what you want in early November. However my gut feeling tells me that this stays north for Northern New England and just misses most of SNE.

Whoever you are, keep posting. I enjoy your analysis and thought process.

[moneypitmike]

For co-op sites that don't report midnight to midnight, an adjustment to the monthly average temperature is made to account for the timing difference. Many co-ops (not sure on the exact percentage) use the MMTS system, and it's digital and auto resets at midnight so that alleviates that problem. Also the calendar day is midnight to midnight standard time, so for half the year the climo day runs 12AM-12AM and the other half 1AM-1AM.

 

Did you follow this to the 7-7 reference?  I'm flummoxed by that one.

 

12z EURO is close to bringing a full out snowstorm for New England, its a great step forward if that's what you want in early November.  However my gut feeling tells me that this stays north for Northern New England and just misses most of SNE.

 

That would be a hoot in the face of all the doom and gloom out there.  NNE is always a safer bet at this time of year.

 

36.4/13

[Ginx snewx]

I would venture to guess that the -PNA and +NAO pattern will stay with us for the next few weeks at least, perhaps until Thanksgiving.  However that doesn't mean we can't get a Northern New England snowstorm this weekend.  I say a 4-6" swath from Green Bay, Wisconsin through Portland, ME before the disturbance phases with the polar vortex over Hudson Bay this weekend.  Right now I'd say the Pacific needs to get better before we put our hopes up for a pattern change.  NAO is really not a major factor when it comes to producing a snowstorm, it is important to strength and duration of a snowstorm especially if a block occurs, allowing a phase to be realistic rather than pure speculation.  I want to see the PNA change before a pattern change is realistic enough to believe in.  The PNA pattern is much more direct and precise when it comes to our big snowstorms, while it's not 100%, it is certainly high when it comes to the PNA developing something versus the NAO pattern.  +PNA is what we need.  -EPO leads to troughiness over the Northeastern Pacific allowing energetic disturbances to move through the flow over the PNA ridge and downstream into the eastern US trough that develops due to upstream developments.

Go here and run some correlation maps, you might be surprised

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/