powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 SR making tons of snow. Opening more and more trails. Yeah nice stretch for those making snow...we'll probably fire up this weekend for a 23rd opening day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 March will rock. Morch is no longer a winter month. Torchvember may spill into December. Seriously though I'm not even worried for a second - November doesn't really matter to me and we have an entire month to straighten out the ugly look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I don't give a crap about the ski areas. Snow here. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 To me it has the look of above normal heights in the wake of a hurricane over Alaska sector, and not an attempt at forming some -nao type setup. remember that happening in 2011-2012 where the nao was even registering negative at times in the wake of alaska vortex. I'm not trying to say this winter is heading that way at all, but these pattern signals completely stink right now This is no la la land signal here...plenty of support for the +AO regime at the very least. We can hope the alaska/pacific trends better I suppose 11-15 scores are la la land, if you think that verifies verbatim that's cool but I agree it looks warm that week. I am not even concerned when my winter normally starts around Christmas. That what seven weeks away? The Nov 11 vortex has really made some paranoid. Hopefully folks understand the historical nature of that deviations persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 ...and it begins. The s are already moving the goalposts and lowering expectations Wtf are you talking about? Don't make sh it up Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Morch is no longer a winter month. Torchvember may spill into December. Seriously though I'm not even worried for a second - November doesn't really matter to me and we have an entire month to straighten out the ugly look. There in lies the folly, in crappy winters we often have this look early and it simply locks in for a good chunk of the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 March will rock.we are having a nice conversation then Mod Met has to troll, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 There in lies the folly, in crappy winters we often have this look early and it simply locks in for a good chunk of the winter....Yeah sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Not hard to look back and see some pretty crappy November's lead to either bad or good winters. I am more concerned with QPF. After all that being said is normal to below for the next ten days really that crappy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Wtf are you talking about? Don't make sh it up Ryan. we are having a nice conversation then Mod Met has to troll, nice. lol it was a joke. It seems to me that most weenies, mets, and everyone in between have lowered expectations for November. Just looks meh right now... no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 lol it was a joke. It seems to me that most weenies, mets, and everyone in between have lowered expectations for November. Just looks meh right now... no doubt about that.well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Yeah sometimes it does sometimes it doesn't. Not hard to look back and see some pretty crappy November's lead to either bad or good winters. I am more concerned with QPF. After all that being said is normal to below for the next ten days really that crappy? Agree on the QPF. Also, who knows if we end up below temps next 10 days-end of Oct was supposed to be cold and in the end, really just came in with average temps vs the cold models showed....felt cold after the inferno of the 1st 21 days of Oct, but wasnt that cold in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right. There were plenty of people who kept posting about winter and cold being around the corner in Novie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKweather27 Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 There were plenty of people who kept posting about winter and cold being around the corner in Novie.HM call looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 There were plenty of people who kept posting about winter and cold being around the corner in Novie.I think the second half of November will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 There were plenty of people who kept posting about winter and cold being around the corner in Novie. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right. I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month. Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism. But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think most called for a rather mild Novie. I know we did at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think most called for a rather mild Novie. I know we did at work. December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month. Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism. But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha. Late November could still turn a lot better....this mid November relaxation has been showing up for a while now. But it just wasn't really more certain until now. The late Oct cold shot was seen from really far out too...we were talking about sometime after 10/20 back around 10/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I don't think anyone was looking for a snowy November, but a lot of folks were jumping on the late-Oct cold shot as a pattern change that would bring winter in early (as in steady below normal temps, not snowfall). There were a good deal of early winter calls this year or at least in the discussion over the last month. Joking aside and not at any person in general, but it does seem like the overall consensus here has now moved past November for anything exciting...when a week ago there seemed to be a lot more optimism. But that's how weather is. You gotta move the goalposts sometimes as more data comes out. I don't think anyone should get defensive about altering their thoughts as more information comes out...that's a lot better than stubbornly going with an idea that you know looks wrong, haha. I think some people just don't have patience or just accept what they have. It can't be extreme all the time and having grown up the first half of my life with note worthy storms few and far in-between, I know that if you wait around long enough, it will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 We go through the November Blues every single year on here...except last year when we had the 11/7 event. I recall November 2010 and 2008 being especially bad...2010 because it wasn't very cold and 2008 because it was really cold but there were no snow events to go with it so we were "wasting the good pattern"...then shortly after there were meltdowns heading into mid-December before the 12/19 event showed up. Recall the massive meltdowns too in December 2010 when we finally switched to cold, but had no snow to show for it...so we were once again "wasting the cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 I think some people just don't have patience or just accept what they have. It can't be extreme all the time and having grown up the first half of my life with note worthy storms few and far in-between, I know that if you wait around long enough, it will come. Growing up near the coast I never expected anything good before New Years. Some of us are just joking with the winter stuff, but it's way too early to worry. Weenies need to settle down and let the cards fall as they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 How do you think December looks Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Who?just a joke I think. I don't remember anyone saying because the torch of Early October changed we would go into a consistent below normal for November. But we are not in a torch pattern for sure yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Could be some really good wind gusts on Friday if the GFS is right. That's a pretty strong low deepening over QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 How do you think December looks Scott? Its going to be dependent on if there is any blocking. Seems like signs point to at least a little AN but lots of mixed signals. Can't really say much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Agree on the QPF. Also, who knows if we end up below temps next 10 days-end of Oct was supposed to be cold and in the end, really just came in with average temps vs the cold models showed....felt cold after the inferno of the 1st 21 days of Oct, but wasnt that cold in the end.The period from 1022 to 1030 was 3-5 BN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 4, 2013 Author Share Posted November 4, 2013 well whoever expects a snowy November is going to be disappointed. I like the 93/94 look and have for a long time if that's lowered expectations and moving the goalposts then I guess you are right. Snowy? Probably not. But in the likely places, I'm expecting snow on the ground by late month. I've seen nothing to make me think otherwise. of course, I'm probably looking in all the wrong places. 29.5/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 any snow before christmas is a gift. wake me up than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 4, 2013 Share Posted November 4, 2013 Could be some really good wind gusts on Friday if the GFS is right. That's a pretty strong low deepening over QC.The trend has definitely been stronger on this storm, another Hills limb and tree buster? Today's fall cleanup FTL. I was surprised how many small branches were down in my yard. Waking up in the dark and getting home in the dark I had not seen them. Time to replace my broken anemometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.