November Weather Discussion

[Ginx snewx]

Whoever you are, keep posting. I enjoy your analysis and thought process.

I totally forgot about the time change, at first I was like Wut?

[jamesnichols1989]

Go here and run some correlation maps, you might be surprised

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/

 

Thanks man for the link, but I still remain stern on my belief seeing it in person, especially with the blizzard of 2005, where the pattern favored a quick 24-30 hour storm, rather than a 48 hour storm, big difference in timing, so storms with -NAO tend to stay around longer than storms with a positive pattern, its just the way it has been and will continue to be, although I will argue against myself saying that -NAO patterns allow storms to phase off the East Coast a lot easier than without a -NAO present.

[snowman21]

Did you follow this to the 7-7 reference?  I'm flummoxed by that one.

Why are you flummoxed by it? It makes sense that it would happen given the volunteer nature of the co-op network which encompasses ~10,000 stations compared to ~270 first order stations. The observations occur at the time the volunteer would most likely be available to do them. The important thing is that it is done at the same time each day. Obviously that can introduce a day lag at times in the daily data when comparing a co-op site versus a first order station where a midnight to midnight schedule is followed.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Thanks man for the link, but I still remain stern on my belief seeing it in person, especially with the blizzard of 2005, where the pattern favored a quick 24-30 hour storm, rather than a 48 hour storm, big difference in timing, so storms with -NAO tend to stay around longer than storms with a positive pattern, its just the way it has been and will continue to be, although I will argue against myself saying that -NAO patterns allow storms to phase off the East Coast a lot easier than without a -NAO present.

you are a trip. 

[ORH_wxman]

This run of the Euro is definitely colder in the means. The Atlantic side is a little better on this run with some psuedo and transient features that keep the gradient pressed a bit further south than previous runs. Also the Aleutian ridge is pretty poleward near the end of this run...but anything past about D6 is grain of salt on the OP run.

[Ginx snewx]

Thanks man for the link, but I still remain stern on my belief seeing it in person, especially with the blizzard of 2005, where the pattern favored a quick 24-30 hour storm, rather than a 48 hour storm, big difference in timing, so storms with -NAO tend to stay around longer than storms with a positive pattern, its just the way it has been and will continue to be, although I will argue against myself saying that -NAO patterns allow storms to phase off the East Coast a lot easier than without a -NAO present.

Well it's true that blocking is a benefit and a positive PNA usually translates to a trough out here.

[jamesnichols1989]

you are a trip. 

 

Well that is the benchmark storm to compare a lot of other snowstorms to, although they are gaudy numbers to live up to with every storm, this was not the perfect setup for which a mega blizzard dumped almost 36" of snow on me.  However unfairly this storm was the worst to hit Cape Cod, MA in terms of snowfall in a long time.  So therefore it is important to realize that the +PNA regime can give you a snowstorm while the NAO is positive.

[Ginx snewx]

This run of the Euro is definitely colder in the means. The Atlantic side is a little better on this run with some psuedo and transient features that keep the gradient pressed a bit further south than previous runs. Also the GOA ridge is pretty poleward near the end of this run...but anything past about D6 is grain of salt on the OP run.

Yes nice run.

[moneypitmike]

Why are you flummoxed by it? It makes sense that it would happen given the volunteer nature of the co-op network which encompasses ~10,000 stations compared to ~270 first order stations. The observations occur at the time the volunteer would most likely be available to do them. The important thing is that it is done at the same time each day. Obviously that can introduce a day lag at times in the daily data when comparing a co-op site versus a first order station where a midnight to midnight schedule is followed.

 

Oops--I missed your distinction that this was just for the coop sites.  Now I understand.

 

36.6/13

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well there is a system there out in la-la land.  Verbatim, would be a NNE special.

 

[jamesnichols1989]

This run of the Euro is definitely colder in the means. The Atlantic side is a little better on this run with some psuedo and transient features that keep the gradient pressed a bit further south than previous runs. Also the Aleutian ridge is pretty poleward near the end of this run...but anything past about D6 is grain of salt on the OP run.

 

I like the trend though with this run, more ridging on the backside of the mid level disturbance that enters the region day 6-8 and turns into a monster snowstorm for St. Johns, Canada and western parts of Nova Scotia.  However if trends were to continue then the mid level disturbance could dig more.  I like to be more optimistic during the winter months when it comes to snowstorms given that one of them will produce a big one, it's just a matter of timing and phasing opportunities, but given lack of a strong sub tropical jet this winter, phasing won't be much of a issue, but just placement of the polar jet stream as well as at times the arctic jet stream.

[jamesnichols1989]

Well there is a system there out in la-la land.  Verbatim, would be a NNE special.

 

f144.gif

 

GFS tries to phase the arctic jet polar vortex with the mid level disturbance that remains transient during a +NAO regime and lack of a pure +PNA ridge.

[Ginx snewx]

Well there is a system there out in la-la land. Verbatim, would be a NNE special.

f144.gif

day 6-7?

[jamesnichols1989]

day 6-7?

 

Yup 6-7, not really la la land, but its in the mid range.

[powderfreak]

day 6-7?

That's still pretty la-la range, especially when it's sort of the first run to show something too.

Anything past 120hrs is la-la, IMO. Let's see once it gets into that 72-120 hour range.

[moneypitmike]

I like the trend though with this run, more ridging on the backside of the mid level disturbance that enters the region day 6-8 and turns into a monster snowstorm for St. Johns, Canada and western parts of Nova Scotia.  However if trends were to continue then the mid level disturbance could dig more.  I like to be more optimistic during the winter months when it comes to snowstorms given that one of them will produce a big one, it's just a matter of timing and phasing opportunities, but given lack of a strong sub tropical jet this winter, phasing won't be much of a issue, but just placement of the polar jet stream as well as at times the arctic jet stream.

 

You've quickly established yourself as a well-respected poster on this forum. 

 

36.0/13

[jamesnichols1989]

That's still pretty la-la range, especially when it's sort of the first run to show something too.

Anything past 120hrs is la-la, IMO. Let's see once it gets into that 72-120 hour range.

 

After last winter, I would venture to say that the 72-120 hour range is la la land, models tend to lose the intensity or location of said disturbance, especially while its still three days away from entering the US.

[powderfreak]

You've quickly established yourself as a well-respected poster on this forum.

36.0/13

You are assuming he likes snow though...if he doesn't, then the trend could be bad

Safe assumption though that anyone here loves snowstorms.

[jamesnichols1989]

This three to five day rule where the models tend to lose the intensity of the storm and location of the storm only to get it back within 72 hours is ridiculous to speculate upon why it happens this way, but it has been rule of thumb for some time now, questions remain, but results remain the same.

[powderfreak]

After last winter, I would venture to say that the 72-120 hour range is la la land, models tend to lose the intensity or location of said disturbance, especially while its still three days away from entering the US.

Yeah...it's so true how fast things can change, for better or worse. Even 72-84 hours on the meso-scale models is extremely dangerous, lol.

[jamesnichols1989]

You are assuming he likes snow though...if he doesn't, then the trend could be bad

Safe assumption though that anyone here loves snowstorms.

 

My love for snow is unmatched, I have loved snow ever since I was a kid, but truth is some of the biggest snowstorms in my lifetime also kept some of my friends from coming over that day.  One snowstorm if anyone can remember is the January 6-8th 1996 blizzard in which 16-20" of snow fell in my front yard and his mother had to cancel, I will never forget that day, we went sledding down the hill too right on the road which was packed with snow, it was a great day.

[jamesnichols1989]

Yeah...it's so true how fast things can change, for better or worse. Even 72-84 hours on the meso-scale models is extremely dangerous, lol.

 

Yeah...it's definitely comical to as how the models have behaved with snowstorms of the past and will react to the snowstorms of the future.

[moneypitmike]

My love for snow is unmatched, I have loved snow ever since I was a kid, but truth is some of the biggest snowstorms in my lifetime also kept some of my friends from coming over that day.  One snowstorm if anyone can remember is the January 6-8th 1996 blizzard in which 16-20" of snow fell in my front yard and his mother had to cancel, I will never forget that day, we went sledding down the hill too right on the road which was packed with snow, it was a great day.

 

I think some people on this board will argue that.....

 

Where is Harwich?

 

Sorry to derail the thread.

 

35.9/13

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think some people on this board will argue that.....

 

Where is Harwich?

 

Sorry to derail the thread.

 

35.9/13

how do you not know who this poster is? LOL.

[moneypitmike]

how do you not know who this poster is? LOL.

 

Because I don't!!  What's up with that?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Because I don't!!  What's up with that?

LOL. it's CCairforceweathergulfstreamblizzard2005

[dendrite]

ec ens still meh in the extended. At least we've had some good cold shots this fall. Hopefully that bodes well down the road once Canada reloads.

[moneypitmike]

LOL. it's CCairforceweathergulfstreamblizzard2005

 

Thank God for the gulfstream!!

 

And the quick drop has commenced.

 

35.2/12

[Typhoon Tip]

DPs are around 10F and the high pressure center is settling overhead.  Thought last night had a shot and being a stinger, but enough wind stayed up all night to prevent most sites from really bottoming out.  Orange, MA did get to 19 after going calm for several hours, but that was the exception rather than the rule.  

 

Tonight, however, the wind should really go nil most places, and we have low starting pad, with temps struggling to make the low 40s for highs, and clear skies.  Probably be 32F at 6pm, and heading for the high teens easily.   

 

Still looks like it could be almost 70 on Thursday though.  The machine guidance does not reflect that right now, by purely from a synoptic appeal ... you have a deep layer SW flow transporting 850mb temps all the way to +10C (GFS) and +9C (Euro).  I doubt we get the actual mixing depth to that sigma level; if we did, that's 75 and 73 respectively for the surface.  But seeing as it is November ...probably 68'ish. Why the guidance goes under that value I am not certain. Perhaps I am going to just be wrong.  But if we can manage some sun in that flow, it should warm up rather nicely.    

 

Then it flashes cold again next weekend.  There are even a few ensemble members of the GFS and Euro that try to throw a period of wintry precipitation late in the period.   

 

Beyond that, all teleconnectors would argue a warm mid-month.  But things can change. One thing I am noticing is that although warmth may be signaled over the U.S., there is actually a lot of cold lurking over the Canadian shield/pole.

[SouthCoastMA]

LOL. it's CCairforceweathergulfstreamblizzard2005

the reference to "Cape Cod, MA" was a dead giveaway. every storm has blizz of 2005 potential