moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 BOX is holding to a chilly Sunday and Monday, but the low 40's progged out this way are just a couple degrees cooler than the 44-46 we had on Oct 24, 25, and 29th. I'm not so sure they will run much colder here than forecast, but I think they'll be a bit more widespread allowing others who may have been warmer on those days to enjoy a couple cooler days. My two cents. 61.6/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 Why won't it? I was wondering the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah the Euro ensembles aren't a good look if you extrapolate the D15 pattern...obviously that is dangerous to do given the time range, but we do not want to see the lowering heights near AK...with the AO strongly positive on that composite, that would definitely furnace us beyond that time range. We'll see if that is a trend or not though. We did have some brief runs a week or two ago that showed a more positive looking EPO than is actually verifying. Still, with the AO staying pretty positive in the means, it doesn't leave a lot of ways to get deep cold...you end up relying on the EPO so much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah the Euro ensembles aren't a good look if you extrapolate the D15 pattern...obviously that is dangerous to do given the time range, but we do not want to see the lowering heights near AK...with the AO strongly positive on that composite, that would definitely furnace us beyond that time range. We'll see if that is a trend or not though. We did have some brief runs a week or two ago that showed a more positive looking EPO than is actually verifying. Still, with the AO staying pretty positive in the means, it doesn't leave a lot of ways to get deep cold...you end up relying on the EPO so much more. Agreed with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah the Euro ensembles aren't a good look if you extrapolate the D15 pattern...obviously that is dangerous to do given the time range, but we do not want to see the lowering heights near AK...with the AO strongly positive on that composite, that would definitely furnace us beyond that time range. We'll see if that is a trend or not though. We did have some brief runs a week or two ago that showed a more positive looking EPO than is actually verifying. Still, with the AO staying pretty positive in the means, it doesn't leave a lot of ways to get deep cold...you end up relying on the EPO so much more. Didn't the 00z euro ensemble mean have more ridging in the EPO region D15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah the Euro ensembles aren't a good look if you extrapolate the D15 pattern...obviously that is dangerous to do given the time range, but we do not want to see the lowering heights near AK...with the AO strongly positive on that composite, that would definitely furnace us beyond that time range. We'll see if that is a trend or not though. We did have some brief runs a week or two ago that showed a more positive looking EPO than is actually verifying. Still, with the AO staying pretty positive in the means, it doesn't leave a lot of ways to get deep cold...you end up relying on the EPO so much more. Looks like Nov 12 if you ask me, but like you said it is a day 15 prog on both ens,and it is only Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Didn't the 00z euro ensemble mean have more ridging in the EPO region D15? Yes, which is why we have to wait and see if today's 12z run is a trend or just a hiccup. I wouldn't worry too much about it yet, it is still early in the month and we havent had persistent vortex over the EPO region in late autumn like we've seen in so many positive EPO winters...it broke up in early October. Still, I think the leaning tendency is definitely tilting toward a +AO winter. We can get away with with a +AO winter like we did in '07-'08 (at least central and northern regions) along with years like '92-'93 or '83-'84 or '75-'76...but you'd obviously rather not gamble on trying to beat the odds in the +AO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 '08-'09 was another +AO winter, but only slightly. We had a -NAO in the means which helped us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 '08-'09 was another +AO winter, but only slightly. We had a -NAO in the means which helped us. any of those years works for me would not for our southern friends but I would take it. , what was 70/71 AO EPO NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 any of those years works for me would not for our southern friends but I would take it. , what was 70/71 AO EPO NAO? all negative...negative PNA too.....'70-'71 was frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 all negative...negative PNA too.....'70-'71 was frigid. But it had a heck of a gradient pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Didn't the 00z euro ensemble mean have more ridging in the EPO region D15? Yeah but there is also a tendency to flatten it and have retro or rebuild further west closer to Kamchatka which will only enhance the lower heights over the west. That's where I'm seeing a warmer signal. It doesn't mean torch with +10 temps, but AN I think is a good bet. If it starts to build poleward then that's where you get the cross polar flow and dump of cold further south into the US. At the very least the deep south and possibly Mid ATlantic will be rather warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 48 gonna be a scorcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Next 15 days average above normal, couple of well colder than normal days but above as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Bottom dropped out after midnight Manky 52F midnight reading dropped to 36 but damage done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Can't rule out a few wet flakes mixing in for ern MA tomorrow morning. It's going to depend on how heavy any precip comes down, but if lift is deep enough..I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Can't rule out a few wet flakes mixing in for ern MA tomorrow morning. It's going to depend on how heavy any precip comes down, but if lift is deep enough..I could see that. NH and Maine Elevations ? interior snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 NH and Maine Elevations ? interior snow? It may be one of those deals that develop as it exits stage right but certainly flakes possible interior if this gets it's act together sooner...especially further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Not a big fan of the 11-15 day but it could be worse I guess. Subtle signs of +NAO easing a bit, but then EPO starts to go into the crapper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Not a big fan of the 11-15 day but it could be worse I guess. Subtle signs of +NAO easing a bit, but then EPO starts to go into the crapper. we will have to see where this takes us going forward as you have stated its only Nov and so far no epic death vortex. I do like the tendency to drop AO NAO a bit, maybe signs of something later, who knows but perhaps we go into real winter with better chances and outlooks, right now it seems pretty typical November type weather, its not a winter month anywhere until the last week when NNE starts winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 00z Euro ensembles still signaling dropping heights over AK by D14/D15. Almost seems like the low heights over Kamchatka retrograde a bit and the whole thing goes to hell. GEFS a bit better... but the ridging backs west from the EPO region to the Aleutians. Not a furnace but a mild pattern. Note the SE ridge/positive height anomalies that continue to pop up on both models. Gradient -PNA pattern with storm track west keeping us on the mild side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Better hope the longer term ensemble forecasts are incorrect about the EPO neutralizing toward mid/late November, as that set-up going into December would mean furnace city (+EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA). Overall there's more bad than good on modeling right now going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Better hope the longer term ensemble forecasts are incorrect about the EPO neutralizing toward mid/late November, as that set-up going into December would mean furnace city (+EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA). Overall there's more bad than good on modeling right now going forward. something I like to do with the 8-14 day SUPERGEFSENS analog lists is to plot the analogs and roll them forward 4 weeks. what it shows is the Yo Yo pattern continuing into Dec. This of course leads to variable outcomes for the NE but like now the predominate feature is warmth, however as we approach the first week of Dec huge height falls appear suggesting potential for storminess. sometimes these analogs have worked out very well over the years, sometimes not so well. I did it for this past week a month ago and it was solid. Lets see what happens. current days 8-11 outlook Week 3 which would be roughly 11/23 Week four roughly 11/30 Week five roughly 12/7 Week six roughly 12/14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 2, 2013 Author Share Posted November 2, 2013 Better hope the longer term ensemble forecasts are incorrect about the EPO neutralizing toward mid/late November, as that set-up going into December would mean furnace city (+EPO/+AO/+NAO/-PNA). Overall there's more bad than good on modeling right now going forward. Be that as it may, if events can time just so, we can still manage some wintry events in spite of mild regime--especially since each passing day the norm drops and the temp of the AN will tend to follow. I'm still thinking a white Thanksgiving here in GC is within reach. 56.4/44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Be that as it may, if events can time just so, we can still manage some wintry events in spite of mild regime--especially since each day the norm drops and thethe temp of the AN will tend to follow. I'm still thinking a white Thanksgiving here in GC is within reach. 56.4/44 think 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 2, 2013 Author Share Posted November 2, 2013 think 1993 Thanksgiving 1993? I don't remember that too well.....I was living in Stamford, CT then, and probably was in Old Lyme for Thanksgiving. Vague recollection of a little snow there on the shoreline. I wonder how that was up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 A little warm is fine. We need systems DJFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Thanksgiving 1993? I don't remember that too well.....I was living in Stamford, CT then, and probably was in Old Lyme for Thanksgiving. Vague recollection of a little snow there on the shoreline. I wonder how that was up this way. Thanksgiving 1993? Think Leon Lett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Looks like first official freeze at BOS this year will be 11/4, a few days early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 2, 2013 Share Posted November 2, 2013 Thanksgiving 1993? Think Leon Lett. snow and sleet in Dallas, warm month here +2-3 +AO, big reversal of fortune after that http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrU8z4w8T-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.