OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Balmy everywhere ... Looking at hi res vis loop, should be seeing some sun as the afternoon continues to unfold. Combined with slackening wind and native warmth ... CAA is weak. The front's through much of VT and now western MA, and ALB is actually up to 66 with lighter WSW wind. I would guess the true front is still west of the Hudson. You can really see another wind shift and drop in dew points over much of the rest of NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Balmy everywhere ... Looking at hi res vis loop, should be seeing some sun as the afternoon continues to unfold. Combined with slackening wind and native warmth ... CAA is weak. The front's through much of VT and now western MA, and ALB is actually up to 66 with lighter WSW wind. secondary surge actually comes in on sunday with the energy that helps develop the weak inverted trough...that's when the actual cold gets in here. feel like tomorrow is probably relatively mild as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 secondary surge actually comes in on sunday with the energy that helps develop the weak inverted trough...that's when the actual cold gets in here. feel like tomorrow is probably relatively mild as well. Pretty standard fropa here in New England. Cold always lags at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Pretty standard fropa here in New England. Cold always lags at the surface. particularly with a lake cutter like this...mean flow remains SW for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Over night tele's trying to shift the AO more toward neutral ...I think Ginx mentioned this a couple days ago? Anyway, not sure what product(s) he uses, but the CPC available to public has it positive, but trending downward. My own thoughts: I think though that the newly negative -EPO may be more interesting for us. The AO can pull away and abandon a ridge node over Alaska and the NW Terr, that would still service as a local circulation source for keep cold available in Canada. I am also noting that the ice pack has slammed into Barrow now, locking the Siberian to NW Terr. as an over-ice transit. Any air mass nearing the eternal darkness eclipse that passes through that domain, or even origins there would be a good source region. Right now ... the operational Euro and GFS look a little oddly shortened with their L/W, wave lengths between the western Aleutians and western Canada -- seems like they are trying to have their cake and eat it too, with a -EPO and a -PNAP pattern underneath. Either way, appears to be an unstable pattern and one that will probably show up differently in these immediate cycles going forward. ...If you want early cold and snow, cheer for the -EPO woot woot! Otherwise, it appears there is erstwhile blocking episodes in the dailies migrating through Canada for these first two weeks ... sort of a theme or tendency. They are smaller spacial -scaled confluence intervals that want to bring cold high pressure periods along 45N. That's more of an oscillatory pattern between warm and cool, ...as others have noted. But ... it's somewhat different than what was suggested by a lot of these guidance sources just 4 days ago, when/where it almost looked like a bona fide warm first half of the month. Using the GFS outright (...always a good idea... ) we'd really kind of end up more average with that, I think. It's got the big ridge for next week, but it's slightly S of the Euro, and that allows for less momentum for warmth here, and then it has a serious "dent" in the ridge by next weekend that is strong enough to usurp cold into the heart of the heretofore warm signal. Up down up down. By the way... the GFS now just 36 and 48 hours out, and it refuses to budge on the SE NH/NE MA/S ME bitter cold rain/wet snow signal with weak Norlun in the area. It's had this now for like ...7 days of runs. Pretty remarkable consistency for this model. If it doesn't happen at all, it's a pretty alarming indictment. One thing I have noticed is that although less emphatic, all models have at one point or another, in that same run up time, had inverted troughing and some lighter QPF dappled about the area. The NAM does now, too. The other thing to consider there is that although there is a total 500mb-sfc thickness crash, the 1300 m to sfc may be too warm. Big HP comes in this week to mute the warmth a bit like you mentioned. This is a progressive pattern, but about as classic a -PNA in November as you'll find. Classic. Aleutian ridge, cold west and esp NW and a torch MA and SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 monday is going to be a really chilly day (not that sunday is going to be all that warm either). mex is only low/mid 40s most of the region. for ORH sun-tue it's 42/41/43 - that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 monday is going to be a really chilly day (not that sunday is going to be all that warm either). mex is only low/mid 40s most of the region. for ORH sun-tue it's 42/41/43 - that's cold. Me like cold..... Glad some folks have some decent winds. Total bust here a a peak recorded at the pit of 19mph. At my current high of 63.1/54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Me like cold..... Glad some folks have some decent winds. Total bust here a a peak recorded at the pit of 19mph. At my current high of 63.1/54 No shawl needed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Me like cold..... Glad some folks have some decent winds. Total bust here a a peak recorded at the pit of 19mph. At my current high of 63.1/54 it was stronger to my west but still good to see some wind. that time of year when pattern starts to allow more interesting things to happen. and...only 30 days until december 1st - winter is really almost here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 1, 2013 Author Share Posted November 1, 2013 No shawl needed today. LOL--I'm wearing one. Steady here. 63/53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Mostly sunny now, 67. November starts the way October went Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Man check out the obs from MSS/Massena in BTV's northern NY zones... 5-6 straight hours now of sustained winds of 35-40mph and gusts of 50-60mph. Almost like a tropical storm moving up the St Lawrence Valley. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?table=1&banner=off&sid=KMSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Thinking more and more this month is AN. -PNA signal won't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Thinking more and more this month is AN. -PNA signal won't be denied. Euro ensembles showing the -PNA through mid month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Euro ensembles showing the -PNA through mid month? Yeah this run today looks mild. We temporarily flat top the Aleutian ridge which keeps cold north. Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah this run today looks mild. We temporarily flat top the Aleutian ridge which keeps cold north. Lock it in. EPO FTW, we Yo Yo Ma until the mid month change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Yeah this run today looks mild. We temporarily flat top the Aleutian ridge which keeps cold north. Lock it in. What do you mean by that? Poleward Ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 EPO FTW, we Yo Yo Ma until the mid month change Is that when the torch cometh? If we lose that EPO we're cooked for the second part of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I'm actually a bit concerned that the second part of the month will turn ugly. Models hinting at some ugliness up toward Alaska which could be problematic. Don't see any signs of any help from AO/NAO so if we lose the EPO it's curtains on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Thinking more and more this month is AN. -PNA signal won't be denied. Agreed...unless we see a huge flip to sustained below normal, this will be a positive month. I mean we can't buy a negative month up here, but maybe SNE can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Is that when the torch cometh? If we lose that EPO we're cooked for the second part of November. how do arrive at that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Agreed...unless we see a huge flip to sustained below normal, this will be a positive month. I mean we can't buy a negative month up here, but maybe SNE can do it. You do remember what 07/08 teleconnections were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 how do arrive at that? With an unfavorable blocking regime (as in no blocking) we're in trouble if the EPO goes neutral or, God forbid, positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 I'm actually a bit concerned that the second part of the month will turn ugly. Models hinting at some ugliness up toward Alaska which could be problematic. Don't see any signs of any help from AO/NAO so if we lose the EPO it's curtains on the cold. I see a dropping AO NAO index mid month on Ens runs and LR modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 ugly The EPO will not flatten like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 You do remember what 07/08 teleconnections were? Not entirely, but I could just go with the persistence forecast of it staying above normal in the means. Let's revisit this later in NOV...I am always hesitant to go below normal in the means unless there is some signal that is overwhelming. I don't see that signal yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The EPO will not flatten like that Why won't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Why won't it? If you look at the image again you'll notice east asia troughing which correlates to EPO ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Why won't it? it could but pretty huge differences in ens modeling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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