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Winter 13-14' Med/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm

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looks like a prolonged mild zonal pattern into the medium range.

 

zzzzz

 

 

Yeah, the Halloween storm looks alright, but I'm not overly stoked about it for this part of the MW.  Plains may see some severe with it earlier in the week, but it looks like we'll be seeing just a vanilla rain event in these parts.  Was really hoping the trough would spit out a witch, but looks like that's not in the cards.

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The ECMWF and GEM look pretty ominous severe potential wise for the OH Valley on Thurs possibly even into nrn IN and OH per the GEM. Very impressive wind fields/shear and 60+ dewpoints up to near IND on the Euro and nrn IN and OH on the Canadian. Looks more like a rain concern for the western part of the subforum though.

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here's his reasoning too:

Here's my preliminary Winter Outlook for 2013/2014. You can see that I am going for about 80" of snow and temperatures about 1.5 degrees colder than normal. However, I am being conservative since it's still October. I can see it being snowier and colder than this, but I want to watch some of the indicators during November first. I will issue my final winter outlook for this coming season just before Thanksgiving. There were three main factors I put into my calculation. First was the El Nino/La Nina situation along the equator in the central Pacific. Right now, it is neutral, meaning no El Nino and no La Nina, so I suppose you could call it La Nada. I also used the water temperature pattern in the north Pacific, which is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We are now in the "cold" phase of this pattern, which lasts for 20 to 30 years. The last cold phase ended in the late 1970s and the new one began in about 2003. So I limited my previous similar years to those. Once I had years with similar water temperatures in the central and north Pacific, I then narrowed it down by taking only the years following a cool summer...similar to what we had this past summer. This left me with 3 previous years: 1966/67, 1978/79 and 2003/04. Two of these are right on the edge of the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, but I included them since they were similar. These three years were all colder than normal, by over 2 degrees on average. Two of them featured over 100" of snow, which we've only done 7 times in our history. The other was on the opposite end of the spectrum...only 44". That doesn't give me a ton of confidence on things. The average of the three was about 85" of snow. So my numbers are conservative for now. However, the water temperature in the north Atlantic is set up for cold weather so I'll be. I'm not taking that into account yet, though, because it can change over a couple of weeks. I'll watch all of this through November and give my final update for winter just before Thanksgiving...

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South Bend WNDU TV met Mike Hoffman just issued his winter forecast....80 inches of snow, a foot above normal, and one to one and a half degrees colder for the Michiana area at least.

 

Too bad SBN doesn't have someone to do official snow measurements this year, at least not as of now.

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System coming up this weak looks similar in track to the last, will be far less entertaining though. Rainfall:

 

 

 

Definitely looks like the wet pattern continues from the central Plains into Quebec. Promising, since eventually the cold air will catch up with these systems later in the month.

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South Bend WNDU TV met Mike Hoffman just issued his winter forecast....80 inches of snow, a foot above normal, and one to one and a half degrees colder for the Michiana area at least.

 

That's fun stuff. I've got South Bend in my model. I like to see how it stacks up to the pros. Prelim forecast for SBN imaged below. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1314/1314-SBN.html

 

znow12.png

 

Last year this model did well for South Bend snow projection. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1213/maps-sf-ws.html

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Isn't the SOUTH BEND MICHIANA RGNL AP (128187) taking official snow measurements? Looks like it from the NOWData - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=iwx

 

They may have someone now, but look back at the NOWdata for 10/23 - 10/26. Snowfall data is M (missing) for all 4 of those days and they measurable snow on at least a couple of those days.

 

EDIT: I also remember a met telling one of the SBN media people as much on NWSchat after that Oct. snow.

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We have seen a major dip in the GWO recently with relative AAM anomalies dropping off significantly.  Negative values have been dominating near 30n and across the southern hemisphere. At the same time we are seeing -AAM values continuing to propagate towards the equator with a classic Rossby Wave Train setup across the pacific basin. Heres my attempt to outline this in true ed berry style.

 

Notice how anticyclonic wave wave breaking is dominating the 250mb level from 30 to 60N with -AAM values crashing into the west coast of north america. This encourages mean troughiness from 60 to 90N with a stronger arctic jet/+AO and +u wind anomalies. 

 

According to the GEFS we see this AAM pattern strengthen in the 10-15 day period. Euro ensembles and NAEFS modelling have been much AN east of the rockies in the same time period.... which the GWO is supporting. At the same time the MJO is expected to move into phase 2 which coincides with a moderate -PNA period. A -PNA/phase 2 MJO/ rapidly falling GWO pattern often produces warm anoms east of the rockies.

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This 216 hour ECMWF plot is a keeper, if only for a laugh. Looks like the 500mb map for the 1950 Appalachian storm or potentially the 1913 great storm. The 240 hour shows a bomb surface low around Albany NY at 240 hours. (500mb low is offshore Cape May NJ)

 

post-1182-0-92896300-1383678852_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

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