40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm not believing the NAM either. Hell, nobody is. The GFS will probably roll off the presses with a sobering .1-.25" of qpf region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 But can you imagine if the NAM verified? It has been showing this for 6 runs now! If that isn't at least consistency, I don't know what is. I have to say, I am excited and worried about what the others models say soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Doesn't the NAM usually handle inverted troughs better than other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 The GFS will probably roll off the presses with a sobering .1-.25" of qpf region wide. Probably, and 0.25" would be a-ok. I've already stated I'm looking for 3" accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Doesn't the NAM usually handle inverted troughs better than other models? Like I said, 6-12" for everyone.But it take an inch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I've been skeptical all along, but it is amazing how many consecutive runs the NAM has been showing something like this. Instead of backing off, it's doubling down. Of course, still plenty of time to start cutting things back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Very similar thru 54. Snow bomb. Congrats, Vacation Land!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Like I said, 6-12" for everyone.But it take an inch at this point. I'll take an QPF at this point...even .2'' or .3''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Congrats, Vacation Land!!!!! Let's give it another 48-84 hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take an QPF at this point...even .2'' or .3''. Yeah, by an inch I meant an inch of snow, like .1" of qpf. Id take anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like the NAM has a much stronger wind profile as well and with the winds coming in from the SE it's drawing in ample moisture into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 There isn't one SREF member as nuts as the NAM...that's a red flag to me. I think the SREF mean is much more reasonable at this point and even that was juicier than the 12z EC. Hopefully tonight's EC looks more like last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Gimme the HGH the NAM is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm not believing the NAM either. Hell, nobody is. It's the only model I've got--I'm stickin' with it! lol I didnt' realize it was so warm--lots of above freezing below the turnpike, coastal plain, immediate ME coast. Hope that wouldn't impact accum's too much there (I assume it's still snow that's falling?). 22.3/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 There isn't one SREF member as nuts as the NAM...that's a red flag to me. I think the SREF mean is much more reasonable at this point and even that was juicier than the 12z EC. Hopefully tonight's EC looks more like last night's run. What was last night's 0z Euro like QPF wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Clown maps are entertaining tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What was last night's 0z Euro like QPF wise? Around .5" of QPF region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Around .5" of QPF region wide. That's not bad at all...would be nice the the 0z Euro tonight has something similar. Something like that is probably a bit more likely to occur than the numbers the NAM spit out tonight but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hopefully the GFS comes in better than the Pats tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Around .5" of QPF region wide. All the way out to GC? I didn't think that was the case...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 What was last night's 0z Euro like QPF wise? 0.25" line is like BDL to GON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0.25" line is like BDL to GON. I would certainly take that...would probably result to a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 If I'm Ryan I don't change what he's been saying the past 24hrs. Every time I've gone with the NAM the past 3 or 4 years for one reason or another I've gotten burned. No reason to change now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS looks like it's about to say no dice on the Wednesday snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I have to stop with my NAM fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS looks like it's about to say no dice on the Wednesday snow. Yeah no love with the gfs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 RGEM through 48 is suggestive not sure what would happen after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS looks like it's about to say no dice on the Wednesday snow. Its not rotating that vortmax from the initial low far enough west.,..it keeps everything pretty far east on that front. So when the midwest s/w comes out and tries to enhance it...it doesn't have a lot to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 actually RGEM looks a touch further north with the best precip through 48, but it defintely hammers northern/central Maine like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That's some pretty large differences between the GFS and NAM at 48 HR at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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