dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It will be interesting to see which model or models scores the coup on this threat........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 What a POS the NAM is. I think we'd all take even half of what it shows. Gladly. I want 3" and it's showing triple that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hahah Kevin jackpots with 0.88" liquid on Wednesday LOL..what is the NAM seeing? WTF I'll stick with 2-5..and hope the lower end verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It will be interesting to see which model or models scores the coup on this threat........... Still a lot of questions with the coastal storm and then the upper level features. There's been pretty decent consistency on at least getting a trough to rotate through the region. I'm hopeful on this event even though the NAM gave me a "relative" screw job. Hopefully in the next 24hrs we get a better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Gladly. I want 3" and it's showing triple that. What a crazy setup. It's like a combo of retro movement and then a NORLUN thrown in. You gotta think the NAM is over the top, but sometimes you can squeeze a decent amount of qpf out in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The worst part about the NAM is that it's printing out warning criteria snow in a good portion of my viewing area and I really am still comfortable sticking with "flurries or a period of light snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What a crazy setup. It's like a combo of retro movement and then a NORLUN thrown in. You gotta think the NAM is over the top, but sometimes you can squeeze a decent amount of qpf out in these setups. Plus a s/w diving down from the Great Lakes that providing some extra QG forcing as it closes a closed low south fo SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LOL..what is the NAM seeing? WTF I'll stick with 2-5..and hope the lower end verifies Decent low level moisture and a strong convergence zone along the SW moving trough. Checkout those streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The worst part about the NAM is that it's printing out warning criteria snow in a good portion of my viewing area and I really am still comfortable sticking with "flurries or a period of light snow" I think the euro would be a good place to start, but I could see wrap around snow getting farther west than it showed at 12z.. Edit: for the Wednesday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Plus a s/w diving down from the Great Lakes that providing some extra QG forcing as it closes a closed low south fo SNE. Yeah that s/w is key. It seems like nothing is straight forward anymore..lol. These blocks are doing some screwy things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 What a POS the NAM is. I think we'd all take even half of what it shows. I wish it were an accurate depiction of what will happen. The NAM scores one once in a while though right? Still remember the huge thump it gave me last year that ended up without a single flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The worst part about the NAM is that it's printing out warning criteria snow in a good portion of my viewing area and I really am still comfortable sticking with "flurries or a period of light snow" I think you'd be wise to at least mention the chance is there for a more significant snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, the moisture-starved east-leaning wet blanket GFS is firing up in a few minutes so that'll pull back the reins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Decent low level moisture and a strong convergence zone along the SW moving trough. Checkout those streamlines. Also some CVA and 700mb frontogenesis thrown in. Like a perfect storm for us. I'm guessing 4 of 5 pieces will wind up not coming together like the NAM shows lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think the euro would be a good place to start, but I could see wrap around snow getting farther west than it showed at 12z.. 00z Euro was basically a bit of a toned down version of the NAM, which wouldn't be totally impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still a lot of questions with the coastal storm and then the upper level features. There's been pretty decent consistency on at least getting a trough to rotate through the region. I'm hopeful on this event even though the NAM gave me a "relative" screw job. Hopefully in the next 24hrs we get a better idea. I don't think i remember seeing a threat this close in and don't know what the outcome will be.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think you'd be wise to at least mention the chance is there for a more significant snowfall No thanks. Not one has panned out this year. 00z Euro had some... backed off at 12z. Euro has also shown these kinds of setups this year and none have happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00z Euro was basically a bit of a toned down version of the NAM, which wouldn't be totally impossible. Yeah agreed. I would take 12z and bring it west for Wednesday. But then again, this is such a complicated set up..it could bust too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 No thanks. Not one has panned out this year. 00z Euro had some... backed off at 12z. Euro has also shown these kinds of setups this year and none have happened lol. The fact that it's been there at 00z 3 nights in a row..then backed off at 12z 3 days in a row..means it's seeing something..and it now has support. I'd mention it and Brad and Bob would too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah agreed. I would take 12z and bring it west for Wednesday. But then again, this is such a complicated set up..it could bust too. Well we've certainly been getting our chances at something. The chances seem to be increasing with frequency now, so one of these would have to pan out soon you would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well we've certainly been getting our chances at something. The chances seem to be increasing with frequency now, so one of these would have to pan out soon you would think. ...3 days later: "well, sooner or later, something has to give". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The fact that it's been there at 00z 3 nights in a row..then backed off at 12z 3 days in a row..means it's seeing something..and it now has support. I'd mention it and Brad and Bob would too It's probably good just to keep it toned down. These setups can bust big time. Once we get more agreement as we get closer, you can up the forecast. That's a tough setup for here...nevermind CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The fact that it's been there at 00z 3 nights in a row..then backed off at 12z 3 days in a row..means it's seeing something..and it now has support. I'd mention it and Brad and Bob would too Dude if I listened to what you said to forecast I probably wouldn't have a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, the moisture-starved east-leaning wet blanket GFS is firing up in a few minutes so that'll pull back the reins. it is a wet blanket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's probably good just to keep it toned down. These setups can bust big time. Once we get more agreement as we get closer, you can up the forecast. That's a tough setup for here...nevermind CT. Yeah I think playing it as flurries or a period of light snow works for now. Have had that in since Friday. No more confident in anything now than I was on Friday. The NAM does nothing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's probably good just to keep it toned down. These setups can bust big time. Once we get more agreement as we get closer, you can up the forecast. That's a tough setup for here...nevermind CT. I'm not saying grab your balls and slam them against the wall with force..I'm just saying call for light snow..and mention that some of our guidance is showing the potential for a more significant snowfall on Wednesday. so stay tuned .. What is wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So basically, These solutions are now being pushed into the Late tues weds time frame it seems, The Nam looks like it would be the best scenario for everyone but can it be trusted.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm not saying grab your balls and slam them against the wall with force..I'm just saying call for light snow..and mention that some of our guidance is showing the potential for a more significant snowfall on Wednesday. so stay tuned .. What is wrong with that? Light snow isn't even a guarantee yet in CT...nevermind more than that. The public freaks out when you start mentioning heavier amounts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well we've certainly been getting our chances at something. The chances seem to be increasing with frequency now, so one of these would have to pan out soon you would think. Yeah you would think..lol. I feel ok about something out this way..probably a nice light event,..maybe 1-2" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Light snow isn't even a guarantee yet in CT...nevermind more than that. The public freaks out when you start mentioning heavier amounts... Right..that's why you mention some guidance has it and some doesn't..just so if it does happen people aren't like..where was this in Ryan's Sunday night forecast. it gives him some wiggle room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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