MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 12Z GFS loading up, that will give me a lot more confidence if it even shows half of what the NAM does, or the "general" idea of it. It gave us 1-3" at 6z ... if it bumped that to 3-5 I'd be pleased. Though I honestly would be happy with a 2-3" snowfall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The 12Z GFS through 78 hours keeps the main retro precip in the Gulf of Maine further angering me..At least it has it on there, so I guess I need to look at the general idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS much the same as it was at 6z, Matt ... 1-3" for us. Not surprising, though I hoped for more. Maybe the Euro will still be as potent as it was last night. More weight given to the Dr by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LOL Amazing how different the GFS is than the NAM. One would think that the NAM would pick up this type of meso feature better than the GFS, but I am skeptical on any NAM solution beyond 48H It gave us 1-3" at 6z ... if it bumped that to 3-5 I'd be pleased. Though I honestly would be happy with a 2-3" snowfall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, that's all she wrote.......what a disappointing run of the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, that's all she wrote.......what a disappointing run of the gfs. Tough to hang your hat on a renegade long-range NAM solution, especially when it's delivering via a highly suspect wraparound/ inverted trough scenario. As someone who's seen many of these bust badly within 12 hours, I've been surprised at the excitement about this. I guess it's a function of how starved folks are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, that's all she wrote.......what a disappointing run of the gfs. GFS might be an eastern and drier outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well, that's all she wrote.......what a disappointing run of the gfs. AHHHH! Can we get some damn agreement at all 40 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 AHHHH! Can we get some damn agreement at all 40 hours out? That'd be no fun. Besides, gotta make Cupo earn his $$$. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 The air has gone out of the balloon in these threads again .. you can just tell. One lackluster run. Might I remind that the #1 model put out, according to dendrite "Most of VT, all of NH, E 1/2 MA, S 2/3 ME all over 0.50" QPF...coastal ME pushing 1". " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 But the #1 model has not behaved like it this week! The air has gone out of the balloon in these threads again .. you can just tell. One lackluster run. Might I remind that the #1 model put out, according to dendrite "Most of VT, all of NH, E 1/2 MA, S 2/3 ME all over 0.50" QPF...coastal ME pushing 1". " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 But the #1 model has not behaved like it this week! They've all stunk, no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That being said, I'm not ready to write off a NAM, ETA type Norlun. And you have to start getting a little revved up for the Christmas day blizzard. GFS is stronger and more north with that storm at 12Z They've all stunk, no denying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That being said, I'm not ready to write off a NAM, ETA type Norlun. And you have to start getting a little revved up for the Christmas day blizzard. GFS is stronger and more north with that storm at 12Z Yeah me either, the NAM actually has not been flip flopping around as much as the other models with the position of lows and pattern. The 12Z run of the GFS actually had the retro precip better placed then the previos run, so hopefully it is starting to pick up on that idea. And yes, the GFS looks nice for Christmas time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah you gotta be careful...can't lump us in with the royalty that lives out there. They get pretty angry and offended. You have an inferiority complex about your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have an extreme superiority complex about my area. Yes, we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes, we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z Ukie is unimpressive. Hopefully the resolution of the NAM and EC are sniffing this out better over the other models. The NAM is 99.9% likely to be ridiculous with amounts, but hopefully it at least has an idea like the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z Ukie is unimpressive. Hopefully the resolution of the NAM and EC are sniffing this out better over the other models. The NAM is 99.9% likely to be ridiculous with amounts, but hopefully it at least has an idea like the SREFs. I'm leaning toward accumulating snow, but on the light side at the moment...like mostly 1-2" amounts, though I'd feel better for heavier amounts if I was in Maine. That's usually climo on these setups anyway...though we have to be really careful about throwing around "climo" for any setup right now since we have such an "unclimo" pattern at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes, we know. For good reason.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm leaning toward accumulating snow, but on the light side at the moment...like mostly 1-2" amounts, though I'd feel better for heavier amounts if I was in Maine. That's usually climo on these setups anyway...though we have to be really careful about throwing around "climo" for any setup right now since we have such an "unclimo" pattern at the moment. Is that comment for the region as a whole or do you see God's Country staying dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm leaning toward accumulating snow, but on the light side at the moment...like mostly 1-2" amounts, though I'd feel better for heavier amounts if I was in Maine. That's usually climo on these setups anyway...though we have to be really careful about throwing around "climo" for any setup right now since we have such an "unclimo" pattern at the moment. That vort that dives in d3 from the WNW has drastically different timing on some of the models. The 12z NAM and last night's EC were much slower. The 60hr 12z NAM and 72hr 00z EC had it around MN. This morning's GFS and GGEM have it in the SE Great Lakes at 60hr and shut off the precip fairly quickly once it passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 can we merge these 2 threads about seemingly the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I was just gonna say that, but you beat me to it..... can we merge these 2 threads about seemingly the same storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I was just gonna say that, but you beat me to it..... Kinda two different events. I think Will made a good point on the 1st page of the other thread that that one can be for the SE scrape and hallucinations directly from the coastal. This can be for the inverted trough stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 can we merge these 2 threads about seemingly the same storm? Well I was trying to keep the RUC posts and radar hallucinations separate from the mid-week threat....but if people want them all in the same thread I can merge them. I just didn't want to have someone dig through a bunch of posts on the Cape Scraper if they were tyring to find info on the midweek threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well I was trying to keep the RUC posts and radar hallucinations separate from the mid-week threat....but if people want them all in the same thread I can merge them. I just didn't want to have someone dig through a bunch of posts on the Cape Scraper if they were tyring to find info on the midweek threat. Maybe if we just make the titles more clear because both threads seem to be seeing posts for both systems lol. I see what you're saying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like the 12z EC is losing the midweek potential again. Well it's there...just much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like the 12z EC is losing the midweek potential again. Well it's there...just much drier. A couple inches will do me fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The euro gives the Cape a decent snow storm..lol. It even gives me 2-3" before any wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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