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December 21-22 inverted trough/retro precip midweek threat

MaineJayhawk

By MaineJayhawk,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Right..that's why you mention some guidance has it and some doesn't..just so if it does happen people aren't like..where was this in Ryan's Sunday night forecast. it gives him some wiggle room

flurries or light snow it is.

I don't like mentioning "more" when it's the NAM that's showing it. lol

Just like I didn't do it last night when the NAM was showing 1-2" for SE CT

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nzucker

nzucker

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But the Euro doesn't have it now and no other global model does.

The SREFs aren't bad but no need to bite.

Not looking like any accumulations for SE CT/RI from the ocean storm whiffing...maybe a T-1" on Cape Cod, I'm thinking 1-3" looks aggressive there honestly based on radar and model trends, as well as temperatures being on the mild side for accumulating snow.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Not looking like any accumulations for SE CT/RI from the ocean storm whiffing...maybe a T-1" on Cape Cod, I'm thinking 1-3" looks aggressive there honestly based on radar and model trends, as well as temperatures being on the mild side for accumulating snow.

Do you have some agenda to downplay SNE snow events?

T-1" on Cape Cod? That's significantly less than most models show.

I'd probably say 2-4" is a good bet on the Outer Cape. Some OES too.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Do you have some agenda to downplay SNE snow events?

T-1" on Cape Cod? That's significantly less than most models show.

I'd probably say 2-4" is a good bet on the Outer Cape. Some OES too.

I'm talking about the initial event...maybe a bit more from the Norlun but I am not too enthusiastic. Temperatures are pretty marginal for good accumulations as well.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Through when is the initial event?

I was talking about tonight into tomorrow for the initial event. I suppose the Norlun/inverted trough deal is a bit hard to separate from the main ocean storm in this case, but I'm thinking no one has more than 1" snow or so by 18z tomorrow. ACK is reporting -RN right now at 37/29....they might flip to snow if the heavier echoes can come in although it will be harder for people farther to the northeast on the Island since they have even more maritime exposure. It seems really difficult for Cape Cod to get accumulations, especially the Islands, during December in a traditional coastal with NE winds and no arctic high. Ocean is hard to beat.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I was talking about tonight into tomorrow for the initial event. I suppose the Norlun/inverted trough deal is a bit hard to separate from the main ocean storm in this case, but I'm thinking no one has more than 1" snow or so by 18z tomorrow. ACK is reporting -RN right now at 37/29....they might flip to snow if the heavier echoes can come in although it will be harder for people farther to the northeast on the Island since they have even more maritime exposure. It seems really difficult for Cape Cod to get accumulations, especially the Islands, during December in a traditional coastal with NE winds and no arctic high. Ocean is hard to beat.

Well the initial event would really be through Tuesday afternoon I think... the norlun/retro episode isn't really until Tuesday night or Wednesday.

I think a lot of places on the Cape have a shot at a 2-4 kinda deal.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Well the initial event would really be through Tuesday afternoon I think... the norlun/retro episode isn't really until Tuesday night or Wednesday.

I think a lot of places on the Cape have a shot at a 2-4 kinda deal.

Isn't this more of a retrograder than a Norlun? It looks as if the storm is captured by the PV and then comes back and deals a blow to SNE...not exactly a traditional Norlun although later in the 18z NAM we do see some Norlun features with the banding down to NYC metro...

I just think there's a lot of things going against this event....inconsistent modeling of the Norlun, storm too far east, temps too warm for the Islands and Outer Cape, etc. I wouldn't want to be too bullish if I were a professional forecaster (not that I know enough to be one anyway). I am not necessarily pessimistic about SNE snow threats; heck, if I saw a Jan 2005 coming I would be flipping. But so far the "threats" this season have all looked pretty sh*t and I have the courage to say it. I like snow but I like good meteorology better, and I think the XMAS storm is the first one to get truly excited about. It may pass to the south if the H5 trough can't close off completely and it becomes more of a west-->east bowling ball feature, but I like the +PNA, arctic flow off the high pressure coming into AK, active northern stream, strong ULL off California. It looks like a very legitimate event that is going to happen and doesn't have too many moving parts.

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dendrite

dendrite

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Isn't this more of a retrograder than a Norlun? It looks as if the storm is captured by the PV and then comes back and deals a blow to SNE...not exactly a traditional Norlun although later in the 18z NAM we do see some Norlun features with the banding down to NYC metro...

I just think there's a lot of things going against this event....inconsistent modeling of the Norlun, storm too far east, temps too warm for the Islands and Outer Cape, etc. I wouldn't want to be too bullish if I were a professional forecaster (not that I know enough to be one anyway). I am not necessarily pessimistic about SNE snow threats; heck, if I saw a Jan 2005 coming I would be flipping. But so far the "threats" this season have all looked pretty sh*t and I have the courage to say it. I like snow but I like good meteorology better, and I think the XMAS storm is the first one to get truly excited about. It may pass to the south if the H5 trough can't close off completely and it becomes more of a west-->east bowling ball feature, but I like the +PNA, arctic flow off the high pressure coming into AK, active northern stream, strong ULL off California. It looks like a very legitimate event that is going to happen and doesn't have too many moving parts.

you are a man's man.

The system is a little bit of a hybrid. There's a definite inverted trough rotating around the general circulation of the low, but we're definitely seeing a slug of WAA from the E. PVA from the W is helping to keep the trough hanging back.

18z GFS is coming in a little more impressive through 75hr.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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you are a man's man.

The system is a little bit of a hybrid. There's a definite inverted trough rotating around the general circulation of the low, but we're definitely seeing a slug of WAA from the E. PVA from the W is helping to keep the trough hanging back.

18z GFS is coming in a little more impressive through 75hr.

:lol:

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nzucker

nzucker

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you are a man's man.

The system is a little bit of a hybrid. There's a definite inverted trough rotating around the general circulation of the low, but we're definitely seeing a slug of WAA from the E. PVA from the W is helping to keep the trough hanging back.

18z GFS is coming in a little more impressive through 75hr.

I don't mean to sound arrogant but none of the systems this year have been particularly exciting from a SNE/NYC viewpoint. We have a great Atlantic blocking regime but the Pacific has been our arch nemesis and fortune hasn't favored the wise in this case either. I'm a pretty big weenie myself and have made crazy long drives and hikes at ridiculous hours to see snow, but I just can't get excited about a storm passing 400 miles offshore or one that the ECM has modeled passing through Lake Ontario for 5 days straight while one run of the GFS shows 970mb near BOS. I think some people need a lighter dose of the models and a heavier dose of realism sometimes. This XMAS threat is legit and everyone should really be paying attention as it could affect travel plans in a wide area of the country.

Yeah this looks like a hybrid as you say. I don't understand inverted troughs at all except to know they don't affect my area much and that there's some sort of micro-circulation or 500mb feature west of the main low that usually drives it. This looks like a bit of a WAA snow from a developing low, seems bound to hit ME and New Brunswick more than anyone else but still early to pass judgment of course. I just don't think the NAM is to be believed as it handled the main system terribly and is not meant for complex synoptic forecasting in the medium range. GFS looks like some light snow for BOS and the SE Mass area but would have a tough time accumulating, especially in big cities and right by the water (i.e. Logan Airport, where they measure) due to light rates and temps not being that cold near the ocean.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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I was talking about tonight into tomorrow for the initial event. I suppose the Norlun/inverted trough deal is a bit hard to separate from the main ocean storm in this case, but I'm thinking no one has more than 1" snow or so by 18z tomorrow. ACK is reporting -RN right now at 37/29....they might flip to snow if the heavier echoes can come in although it will be harder for people farther to the northeast on the Island since they have even more maritime exposure. It seems really difficult for Cape Cod to get accumulations, especially the Islands, during December in a traditional coastal with NE winds and no arctic high. Ocean is hard to beat.

I think some areas will pick up 1-3 in OES alone lol

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