ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The euro gives the Cape a decent snow storm..lol. It even gives me 2-3" before any wrap around. Yeah its actually trying to back in some precip to E MA on late Monday and Tuesday....complex setup.1-2" for Wednesday for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A couple inches will do me fine. For whatever reason the trend on the EC has been to lose it at 12z and come back at 00z. If I remember correctly yesterday's 12z run didn't have much at all from the trough. So if you want to look at this through rose-colored glasses at least it's an improvement on its previous 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah its actually trying to back in some precip to E MA on late Monday and Tuesday....complex setup.1-2" for Wednesday for eastern areas. I don't know if I completely buy that, but it doesn't seem that unrealistic with the closed low underneath us. The only thing I don't like is how the actual ULL moves east. I'd rather see it slow a little, but I guess the cyclonic flow at H5 is enough to keep precip going near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 For whatever reason the trend on the EC has been to lose it at 12z and come back at 00z. If I remember correctly yesterday's 12z run didn't have much at all from the trough. So if you want to look at this through rose-colored glasses at least it's an improvement on its previous 12z run. What I take from that is that the Euro isn't consistent and cannot be trusted. I am glad, as you point out, that 12z today is an improvement over 12z yesterday. I guess I'll hope for a QPF bomb at 0z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I don't know if I completely buy that, but it doesn't seem that unrealistic with the closed low underneath us. The only thing I don't like is how the actual ULL moves east. I'd rather see it slow a little, but I guess the cyclonic flow at H5 is enough to keep precip going near the Cape. I like how the ULL moves underneath us. Definitely more fun things can happen vs when it tries to go right over us or just north. I don't expect anything crazy, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some steadier bands (even if light) get going near the coast or even inland a little bit...esp as little vortmaxima rotate around...there's a little one that rotates in Monday night which is probably helping keep the precip going. Obviously all these features are never easy to forecast, but at least it will make it worth watching radar trends, etc, for the next few days. I think what we want is a stronger vortmax rotating SW down the coast of Maine at the same time that potent shortwave comes in from the midwest....they can sort of work in tandem if the timing is right which is what the 00z run tried to do...and it gave some pretty decent snows for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I like how the ULL moves underneath us. Definitely more fun things can happen vs when it tries to go right over us or just north. I don't expect anything crazy, but it wouldn't be surprising to see some steadier bands (even if light) get going near the coast or even inland a little bit...esp as little vortmaxima rotate around...there's a little one that rotates in Monday night which is probably helping keep the precip going. Obviously all these features are never easy to forecast, but at least it will make it worth watching radar trends, etc, for the next few days. I think what we want is a stronger vortmax rotating SW down the coast of Maine at the same time that potent shortwave comes in from the midwest....they can sort of work in tandem if the timing is right which is what the 00z run tried to do...and it gave some pretty decent snows for a lot of the area. I agree. The 12z euro lost the strong vortmax coming down, but as you said...forecasting these features will be difficult in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's gonna be interesting to see if the euro works out for the Cape, or even my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's gonna be interesting to see if the euro works out for the Cape, or even my area. Good luck; I'm pretty confident the low clouds will work out in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Good luck; I'm pretty confident the low clouds will work out in my area. LOL, I'm not expecting much from this storm, but I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm going to assume we think the NAM is full of sht? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm going to assume we think the NAM is full of sht? Don't even care what it is depicting TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Don't even care what it is depicting TBH. Like 8-10'' from the Norlun. That happened in '07, but this is '10, so no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Like 8-10'' from the Norlun. That happened in '07, but this is '10, so no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The euro gives the Cape a decent snow storm..lol. It even gives me 2-3" before any wrap around. yeah. nice wintry pattern overall. must be some light snows/sprinkles falling over the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm surprised you guys are down on the Euro...I'm seeing like 4-8'' over a day or two. Nevermind, the stupid button was set to 00z . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm surprised you guys are down on the Euro...I'm seeing like 4-8'' over a day or two. Not up here...that pantom 5" from the inverted trough that the 00z run had has vanished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I heart the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just like 12z, God's Country (the area past HubbDave, but not including him. Sorry, Dave) gets into the game. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM won't give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is ridiculous. It would be great if it verified, but it just cannot be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is ridiculous. It would be great if it verified, but it just cannot be believed. Pretty much a carbon copy of 12z. I want to suspend my disbelief. Heavy heavy surprise snow for everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is ridiculous. It would be great if it verified, but it just cannot be believed. Did you get my text? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is ridiculous. It would be great if it verified, but it just cannot be believed. No kidding. A really cool setup. If what it's doing synoptically is correct than those QPF totals look ok... unfortunately it's sort of out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is ridiculous. It would be great if it verified, but it just cannot be believed. if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 hahah Kevin jackpots with 0.88" liquid on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Did you get my text? Now I got it after you told me, my phone was charging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Even Dobbs Ferry joins the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Interested to see what the 18z GFS has today. It's been dry the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 lol What a POS the NAM is. I think we'd all take even half of what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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