mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Another night of GFS runs either acting up or being dead on..I really don't know what to think.. Just give me 2-3 inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like the NAM put down the crack pipe at 06z. GFS still basically a miss except it grazes eastern mass. SREFs are kind of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like the NAM put down the crack pipe at 06z. GFS still basically a miss except it grazes eastern mass. SREFs are kind of meh. Nam still has decent qpf here, GFS, Not so much................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 NAM yielded on the dakotas s/w. Sped it up and weakened it at 6z towards the other models but it's still way slower than the GFS. THAT said, the GFS had it near central/eastern PA by 54 hours at 0z. By the 6z 48h panel it had shoved it back ANOTHER 400-500 miles near Detroit. NAM gave a smidge, other models gave back hundreds of miles. My guess is that's a real event but of what magnitude TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like the NAM put down the crack pipe at 06z. GFS still basically a miss except it grazes eastern mass. SREFs are kind of meh. Yep. Snowless week ahead for all those except the cape and downeast Maine. Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yep. Snowless week ahead for all those except the cape and downeast Maine. Yay! But wait -- I thought this was going to be a wintry week with snow virtually every day, and solid snowcover across New England by Christmas. Surely this is some sort of mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 But wait -- I thought this was going to be a wintry week with snow virtually every day, and solid snowcover across New England by Christmas. Surely this is some sort of mistake. More than a few people thought this was going to be a wintry month... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxkdmL3iMCY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Once again, this will most likely be run 8 of the NAM showing its solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Once again, this will most likely be run 8 of the NAM showing its solution... See my post from the start of the run, the NAM is relenting some on the position of one of the s/ws and as a result has backed away from earlier solutions. Maine should do well, the mountains too and then down through NH/coastal NH to about Cape Anne and then the outer 1/3 of the Cape. Boston maybe a trace to an inch or two, Worcester may see some flakes, Providence and Hartford no more than flurries - that's my read of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah what a shocker...it cut qpf..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM is backing down on consecutive runs now. Looks like I have to end my love/hate relationship with the NAM. Once again, this will most likely be run 8 of the NAM showing its solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm still happy with the result. I'm also still not believing the result. My expectations are for 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah what a shocker...it cut qpf..lol. ME gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ME gets clobbered. Yeah they get hit good, but I don't know about that much qpf. Cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah they get hit good, but I don't know about that much qpf. Cut it. GYX AFD says they're going with the GFS and they think the NAM has some suspect mass fields. Also mention the GGEM solution as a possible worst case (meaning "heaviest snow") scenario. Hell, gimme the GGEM. I love Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 On my iPod so it's a bit more laborious to check everything, but the 12z GFS is looking more interesting today. Drawn out light snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS seems better with the s/w in the MW and therefore has a stronger slug of qpf coming down the coast. Seems like it would argue a little over an inch for BOS where 06z had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS seems better with the s/w in the MW and therefore has a stronger slug of qpf coming down the coast. Seems like it would argue a little over an inch for BOS where 06z had nothing. An inch of qpf or an inch of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 72h qpf map is looking quite nice. Arguing for 3-5 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 An inch of qpf or an inch of snow? Maybe an inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Maybe an inch or two of snow. D'oh, I was getting excited that maybe it had joined yesterday's NAM. Oh well, I'd take whatever. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Lundberg on board for wrap/reach around snows there is likely to be an arm of moisture that wraps all the way around the storm tomorrow night into Wednesday across much of New England to produce what might be termed as 'surprise' snows - not so much in the shock value of it, but more from the direction it would come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, the GFS has a much more reasonable solution now that fits better with the NAM. I would imagine that since it has the timing similar for waves, that it will increase the amounts by tomorrow as well. I think most of Maine is looking at 3-6 inches now as a more safe solution. Also nice to see it bring back the Christmas storm too. Will be fun to watch exactly how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Lundberg on board for wrap/reach around snows there is likely to be an arm of moisture that wraps all the way around the storm tomorrow night into Wednesday across much of New England to produce what might be termed as 'surprise' snows - not so much in the shock value of it, but more from the direction it would come from I, for one, would be shocked to see actual snow (as opposed to model QPF) coming from any direction at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Yeah, the GFS has a much more reasonable solution now that fits better with the NAM. I would imagine that since it has the timing similar for waves, that it will increase the amounts by tomorrow as well. I think most of Maine is looking at 3-6 inches now as a more safe solution. Also nice to see it bring back the Christmas storm too. Will be fun to watch exactly how this plays out. I do like that the GFS and NAM have trended to one another. 3-6 sounds pretty reasonable. Another good sign is the overperformance in the Cape region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I hadn't looked but Phil says Canadian has snow across almost all of SNE..with the reach around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'm going to go out on a limb and say BOS might see an inch today while a spot on cape ann might pick up more... This is still backing in and its snowing here now ... looks like it has a shot at backing in some 20dbz stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think the trough setup looks much better. We just need to let this system play out a bit, and see some stability in the handling of the Dakotas s/w so the models can zero in on a solution. I have the feeling they aren't done adjusting yet and that the 12z NAM may have been a burp. Best chances for significant snow would be Maine/NH and coastal MA regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I like the look of the GFS and GEM. Certainly some snow possible for eastern areas, and even out west as that trough sweeps down from maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Euro has some sn backing into PWM and points west tonight and then again tomorrow. About 0.3 to 0.4 " qpf. through hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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