mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Yep, looking good for our biggest storm since MLK I believe. And that's pretty pathetic! Yess! Better than nothing, and we have this weekend. Nice to get a snow pack down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 At least its not NW winds At least it would be dry and not rain....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Why even bother with it? Nam has accumulating snow for all..ride the hot hand When will the snow start falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 nasty little vorticity moving through Chicago. Models just keep ramping it up...hmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 nasty little vorticity moving through Chicago. Models just keep ramping it up...hmmmm. how does that effect us in a scenario your think of? i.e will this combine with something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 how does that effect us in a scenario your think of? i.e will this combine with something Well its going to roll over/just under us. That's kind of helping to get this snow event going. We're not far from a great impact but I may be too far south...this thing could surprise (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well its going to roll over/just under us. That's kind of helping to get this snow event going. We're not far from a great impact but I may be too far south...this thing could surprise (again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 if it continues to appear stronger on each successive model run it just may be enough to slap some good moisture back into Maine/NH maybe VT - considerably more than modeled in some bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 if the s/w can hold together longer, I could see a pretty strong band of snow east to west feeding right into new england as it pivots south. Certainly a strong signal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Messenger, the 500mb vorticity is going to try and close off a low to our southeast once again, short range models are seeing this happening, could be another big surprise for the SE MA region. Hopefully the monster storm the foreign models are showing will be a little slower to intensify and be around our latitude when it does so, that way we see our constant NE Atlantic moisture influx and our snowfall rates doubled from what last night give in short order. By the way, my dad said that East Harwich looked to have 15" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Well its going to roll over/just under us. That's kind of helping to get this snow event going. We're not far from a great impact but I may be too far south...this thing could surprise (again) There is also a piece rotating around the storm coming in from ME. That meay get energized by the piece you speak of coming from the MW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Oh wow, Gray just came out with snow likely, accum around an inch...The only possible reason I can think of is warming comes in, but I thought temps were cooling tomorrow, and it is at night? I don't understand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 very tough to predict be fun to watch but SE ME, SE NH and NE MA would be my pick as of now for the best shot of a 3-6 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 While I agree with you messenger that is the best place, I definitely could see Provincetown to Orleans and maybe Brewster potentially getting 3-6" of snow as well. Harwich, MA to Bourne maybe too far south with this one, although the HIRES 12z short range models show the H5 closing off to our southeast again. That energy does continue to get more and more intense in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am sorry, but that NWS forecast for me does not make sense. The NAM, GFS, and Euro all support about 3-6 inches at least bye tomorrow evening and into the overnight. They think it will be some passing light snow..????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't know, I really like the looks of this event. I can see it being one of those deals where we see faint rotation on the w/v and radar as echoes develop over ENE...as the energy slides towards/off the coast the old low shifts n and for a brief time we have almost two centers with mid level features trying to form right off the New England coast. At that point the echoes intensify as they feed W and eventually drop SSW. I think it's a lot to watch. Time will tell. Temps may be an issue, it may continue to trend east in later runs, but probably be fun to watch it evolve. best chance for a good little snow GYX to SE NH to NE MA thereabouts...maybe down to Boston/south shore/cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM is beginning to get closer and closer to an earlier phase between the vortex over the North Atlantic and the energy back near Chicago, IL. Could get interesting here once again for Thursday. Dynamics should allow the column to cool down more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 18z NAM is beginning to get closer and closer to an earlier phase between the vortex over the North Atlantic and the energy back near Chicago, IL. Could get interesting here once again for Thursday. Dynamics should allow the column to cool down more. I worry about temps down here and on the Cape. it's going to be a fine line, could easily miss too. My thought would be if it continues to hold together/stronger on each run we'll see a narrow but more intense band of snow that may pivot first into parts of maine and then try to squirm down the coast before the entire structure lifts out. Very fickle setup. It's going to try to snow pretty good in eastern areas but it may JUST miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 850mb temps are around -6C as this band comes through, should be cold enough, especially in the heavier snow bands to actually compensate for the boundary layer concerns to offset them. I think this vorticity will continue to head further south with time, and the band sets up further south. Right now it is quite thrilling, even if I don't get more than an inch of snow, because the set up is fascinating. The large ocean storm that was sitting to the southeast of ACK has now reformed further northeast while maintaining the original low, this is allowing somewhat of a pinwheel effect with the reforming surface low caught in the strong southeasterly flow around the NE side of the original low and could get sling shot into New England to create the bands of snow as 500mb vorticity rushes to the southeast, south of the SNE south coast and enhance our banding potential. Very fascinating setup, EURO was more robust with this 500mb vorticity as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 I don't know, I really like the looks of this event. I can see it being one of those deals where we see faint rotation on the w/v and radar as echoes develop over ENE...as the energy slides towards/off the coast the old low shifts n and for a brief time we have almost two centers with mid level features trying to form right off the New England coast. At that point the echoes intensify as they feed W and eventually drop SSW. I think it's a lot to watch. Time will tell. Temps may be an issue, it may continue to trend east in later runs, but probably be fun to watch it evolve. best chance for a good little snow GYX to SE NH to NE MA thereabouts...maybe down to Boston/south shore/cape Thank you, I agree. I love how Manchester, NH (Taunton) has more snow forecast than Portland, ME(Gray), and Portland is in the heart of it Wednesday night. Can you tell I am mad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Looks like a growing consensus for a couple inches here tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 I am sorry, but that NWS forecast for me does not make sense. The NAM, GFS, and Euro all support about 3-6 inches at least bye tomorrow evening and into the overnight. They think it will be some passing light snow..????? Wouldn't surprise to see the accums get bumped up overnight or during the day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 NOAA will be wise and will wait until after the 0z tonight. Sure the NAM is getting close to whacking some of us pretty hard but it's also a fine line. The more intense the solution the better the chance IMO areas to the west of the main bands get shut out. One piece of energy at 500mb that rotates down from Maine is actually SE of the main low way the heck out in the ocean. It rotates completely around and down through eastern canada into maine. It'll come down to the track/interaction of that feature and the feature coming through PA. Too far east and we may all miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 21, 2010 Author Share Posted December 21, 2010 Thank you, I agree. I love how Manchester, NH (Taunton) has more snow forecast than Portland, ME(Gray), and Portland is in the heart of it Wednesday night. Can you tell I am mad.. lol .. good thing GYX doesn't dictate actual snowfall. It'll be fine, snow's a-comin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 lol .. good thing GYX doesn't dictate actual snowfall. It'll be fine, snow's a-comin' I think you guys are going to get a nice snowfall out of this... easily plowable in my mind. I'd say its a "surprise" snowfall but everyone on this board has been all over it for days. It might be a surprise to some of the general public though judging by some of the NWS forecasts out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man near 40 today. Hopefully some areas get snow Wednesday, because it will be 35-40 tomorrow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As we thought accumulating snow for ALL of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Man near 40 today. Hopefully some areas get snow Wednesday, because it will be 35-40 tomorrow too. Took some photos at different points today, I'm betting 30-40% meltage today. As we thought accumulating snow for ALL of SNE I'm worried you and I get no accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 Took some photos at different points today, I'm betting 30-40% meltage today. I'm worried you and I get no accumulating snow. Well very weak sun won't melt too much, but for those that got an inch of fluff..it's probably gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 21, 2010 Share Posted December 21, 2010 As we thought accumulating snow for ALL of SNE Even the most robust solutions are showing barely measurable (if at all) in the SW third (or even half) of SNE. I'd proceed with caution the further SW you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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