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MaineJayhawk

NNE Autumn 2013 Thread

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Steady rain this evening has left roughly 0.65" on top of the roughly 0.15" from the first band of precip this morning/early afternoon.

As of 10:30pm the rain gauge has exactly 0.80" in it.

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Looking ahead...boy does early november seem unfavorable for snow and cold. Positive A/O, NAO, Negative PNA, troughs in the center of the country and storms diggin into the upper midwest. Hopefully we can get some sustained cold nights for the ski areas....

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Your area for CAD is remarkable. That's not a bad thing to excel at...heavy heavy snow preservation when we've got white stuff.

My location is pretty good for CAD as well. Yesterday's max (thru my 9 PM obs time) was 40, then up to 55 by 6:45 this morning. Of course, I'm also in the downslope capitol of the Maine foothills. ;)

Finished October with temps 57.8/33.9/45.9, 1.1F above my 16-yr avg. 1-22 was +3.8, 23-31 was -5.3.

Precip totaled 1.23", and failed to beat 2001 (1.12") as the driest by just a few hours, as -RA from 2 PM on added 0.44". (Another 0.39" recorded at 7 this morning.)

Mildest was 74 on 10/2, also mildest avg (58) though the 48 minima on 13,14 were mildest. Low was 14 on 10/29, low mean was 29 that same day, low max was yesterday's 40. October's final 3 days averaged -9.7.

One more comment on protecting the gauge - my concern is the torch-deluge that extends past midnight and is followed by a swift temp plumment thru the 20s and teens, freezing the 1" to 1.5" liquid before my alarm goes off at 5 AM. I've never seen that abrupt a plunge following that much RA here in New Sharon, but it happened several times in Ft.Kent (long before I owned a "real" gauge.) The extreme was 2/2/76, when 1"+ rain was followed by a 5-hr drop from 44 to -6, but there were others not too far behind. Since the bucket method seems accurate (I usually run both it and the gauge for a few storms during the bridge season and they record within a hundredth or two) and is superior for catching snowfall, it will likely remain my winter mainstay. (Actually run two identical pails, so I merely switch them and can melt/measure in the comfort of my kitchen.)

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We had some gusts to 45 overnight but it is calmer now. We will see if it picks up again in the next few hours.

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Well it looks like they had the right speeds but not quite the timing for the peak here in terms of wind (which was when there was good channeling overnight).

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Well it looks like they had the right speeds but not quite the timing for the peak here in terms of wind (which was when there was good channeling overnight).

 

I don't think you're done. There is still a great signal for a nice isallobaric pulse of wind gusts when that stuff by the Adirondacks approaches. MSS is gusting over 50 mph.

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I don't think you're done. There is still a great signal for a nice isallobaric pulse of wind gusts when that stuff by the Adirondacks approaches. MSS is gusting over 50 mph.

 

Ahh yes I see their ob now. I will let you know if it does pick up again.

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Decent looking line on radar didn't translate to the ground for winds.  Maybe 20's mph at best.

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Man 1.57" in the gauge from this event...but I can't find anyone near that number except for MVL at 1.34". I know I emptied that right before this storm too.

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I've never had such a difference between the rain in my gauge and what the other stations around this area are reporting...  I've attached the CoCoRAHS map and unfortunately the Stowe Village guy didn't report today.  But I added my observed rainfall to the map to show how it does not jive at all with the other reports, haha.

 

*Note, I did see that Warren, VT (two or three towns south of Stowe on RT 100) just came in with 1.55" which is not on the map. 

 

 

BTV's 24-hour precipitation summary.  MVL at 1.34" is close.

 

 

Another interesting thing is look at the shadowing in the Champlain Valley... wow. 

 

This would've been a toaster bath for the Champlain Valley if it were a snowstorm.  The echos would disappear over the Champlain Valley, then come on strong as they entered the northern Greens.  It was just steady rain all evening/night here on the east slope and there must've been some orographic enhancement going on. 

 

As we see with a lot of our upslope events, the stronger the flow aloft, the more eastward the orographic effects are...my guess would be the strong SW winds were depositing most of the precipitation on the leeward side over here, vs. windward side in the west slopes. 

 

This was 8:30pm.

 

 

Oct31.gif

 

 

Earlier in the day at 4pm, but a closer look at the BTV precip hole.  I live only like a mile northwest of the Stowe marker on the radar, up RT 108.

 

 

Oct31b.gif

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I've never had such a difference between the rain in my gauge and what the other stations around this area are reporting...  I've attached the CoCoRAHS map and unfortunately the Stowe Village guy didn't report today.  But I added my observed rainfall to the map to show how it does not jive at all with the other reports, haha.

 

*Note, I did see that Warren, VT (two or three towns south of Stowe on RT 100) just came in with 1.55" which is not on the map. 

 

attachicon.gifNov1_cocorahs.gif

 

BTV's 24-hour precipitation summary.  MVL at 1.34" is close.

 

attachicon.gifprecip.png

 

Another interesting thing is look at the shadowing in the Champlain Valley... wow. 

 

This would've been a toaster bath for the Champlain Valley if it were a snowstorm.  The echos would disappear over the Champlain Valley, then come on strong as they entered the northern Greens.  It was just steady rain all evening/night here on the east slope and there must've been some orographic enhancement going on. 

 

As we see with a lot of our upslope events, the stronger the flow aloft, the more eastward the orographic effects are...my guess would be the strong SW winds were depositing most of the precipitation on the leeward side over here, vs. windward side in the west slopes. 

 

This was 8:30pm.

 

 

Oct31.gif

 

 

Earlier in the day at 4pm, but a closer look at the BTV precip hole.  I live only like a mile northwest of the Stowe marker on the radar, up RT 108.

 

 

Oct31b.gif

 

Yeah we had most of our rain this morning with that narrow band. The sun is out now and we will see if that will mix down any higher winds for a secondary peak this afternoon. So far that hasn't materialized.

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I'm sort of "meh" regarding the winds observed on Mansfield so far... max gust of 73mph is nothing to sneeze at, but the sustained winds have been quite low.  Its having trouble recording sustained winds of 30mph+, though recently its ramped up a little bit. 

 

The scud here above town is absolutely flying though... these clouds are trucking it across the sky. 

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I'm sort of "meh" regarding the winds observed on Mansfield so far... max gust of 73mph is nothing to sneeze at, but the sustained winds have been quite low.  Its having trouble recording sustained winds of 30mph+, though recently its ramped up a little bit. 

 

Yeah just as I said that some stronger gusts have started here and there.

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I'm sort of "meh" regarding the winds observed on Mansfield so far... max gust of 73mph is nothing to sneeze at, but the sustained winds have been quite low.  Its having trouble recording sustained winds of 30mph+, though recently its ramped up a little bit. 

 

The scud here above town is absolutely flying though... these clouds are trucking it across the sky. 

 

I'm a little surprised considering MWN gusted to 131 mph.

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Yeah with those H85 wind progs I would've expected them sustained at like 50mph, gusting 80 or in that area.

Overall not real impressive for Mansfield, but still a windy day.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/GMgetobext.php?sid=MMNV1&banner=gmap

 

Models did indicate the LLJ sliding east before reaching that far north. Still a chance they do better with the post-frontal winds.

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We are getting gusts back into the 30's again but still well short of the 45-50 mph or so in forecasts for the afternoon. NWS is still advertising the peak may occur so I will keep an eye out. It is quite warm with the sun out so mixing should be easier for sure.

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I think it is now safe to say it isn't happening. Ahh well. I hope we get a decent high wind warning event sometime this winter.

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I think it is now safe to say it isn't happening. Ahh well. I hope we get a decent high wind warning event sometime this winter.

I'm wondering if you can get cold enough on Saturday night to snow in the Champlain Valley..,.it looks unlikely, but the wind profiles on the soundings look like a blocked flow with NNW at 850 and then NW at the surface. That would mean during the CAA on Sat night and Sun morning, there's likely going to be some precip on the VT side of the CPV (RH > 90% too). SFC temps are warm though even as summit level cools.

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I'm wondering if you can get cold enough on Saturday night to snow in the Champlain Valley..,.it looks unlikely, but the wind profiles on the soundings look like a blocked flow with NNW at 850 and then NW at the surface. That would mean during the CAA on Sat night and Sun morning, there's likely going to be some precip on the VT side of the CPV (RH > 90% too). SFC temps are warm though even as summit level cools.

 

Yeah I am not overly excited about the prospects for it as far as accums in the CPV but we shall see. On a side note just had a few 40+ gusts that resulted in a nice roar and the house creaking a little. Looks like the secondary peak may be trying now as the LLJ begins to lower a bit in altitude before mixing stops after sunset.

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http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&product=PNS&issuedby=BTV

A lot of 40 to 50 mph around the area, including a 52mph at Johnson.

Was up in Stowe today and went through the Notch. Wind was whipping, and saw several trees down, including one blocking 108 for a time.

We are getting our strongest winds of the day now in Stowe. I'd guess gusts of 30+ right now.

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