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Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2


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LOL about arguing where the center is without low level RECON and a radar beam from PR above 20k-25k. We'll know tomorrow.

If they didn't canx today's 2100Z mission, I say 25% chance this would be a TD already.  I may be off a little, but the SWIR doesn't seem that ambiguous.

 

BTW, anybody have access to the Global Hawk data?

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Thee tracks are nicely clustered in the sense that they're all equally lame.  I hope this dies.

Ouch. :gun_bandana:

 

If they didn't canx today's 2100Z mission, I say 25% chance this would be a TD already.  I may be off a little, but the SWIR doesn't seem that ambiguous.

 

BTW, anybody have access to the Global Hawk data?

The Global Hawk is not on station at this moment, it's hanging around the area of convection around 16.5N 57W...

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I just want to break the record for latest-first-hurricane (11 Sep), so at this point I'm just hoping everything dies, at least until mid-month.

 

And I realized why it's important to me-- because I want this hideous suffering we're all enduring to be somehow commemorated and acknowledged by the record books.  And 97L and that CV thing next week would all be totally lame and boring anyway, unless you're some sicko who gets off on weak-fish watching.

 

Scorched-earth policy, babe!

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The 0zGFS sends one piece of 97L out to sea and leaves another piece east of the Bahamas and at 312hrs sends it west to Florida as a weak disturbance, and seems to slowly be coming to the Euro solution which if the GFS starts to show this before truncation this would be watched for a Jeanne like scenario with a weaker solution

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The 0zGFS sends one piece of 97L out to sea and leaves another piece east of the Bahamas and at 312hrs sends it west to Florida as a weak disturbance, and seems to slowly be coming to the Euro solution which if the GFS starts to show this before truncation this would be watched for a Jeanne like scenario with a weaker solution

 

Yea its hard to get a feel for 97L right now... The other vort max to its NE is actually more convectively active right now with better banding features. If that system becomes the dominant one (something the GFS has been trying to suggest off and on) its a recurve scenario. However, if the blob in the caribbean remains the dominant vorticity, it opens up a whole different set of possibilities. That's the more interesting solution.

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Yea its hard to get a feel for 97L right now... The other vort max to its NE is actually more convectively active right now with better banding features. If that system becomes the dominant one (something the GFS has been trying to suggest off and on) its a recurve scenario. However, if the blob in the caribbean remains the dominant vorticity, it opens up a whole different set of possibilities. That's the more interesting solution.

She may be staring to absorb the NE vort per satellite

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The CV storm the GFS is showing day 10 is a an unusually large storm. I don't know about intensity, but the circulation is probably comparable in size to Sandy.

 

It's almost a little too large. I have a feeling it will be one of those slopgyrecanes (assuming on the dubious premise that it does become a hurricane sometime in its life).

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Since no hurricane formed today (03 Sep), 2013 will now place at least 4th on the list of modern (recon/satellite) seasons with the latest first hurricane. The next cluster of records to beat are Mon, Tue, and Wed of next week.  Woo hoo!

 

1 – 11 Sep (GUSTAV 2002)
2 – 10 Sep (DIANA 1984)
3 – 09 Sep (ERIN 2001)

****2013 SO FAR*****
4 – 03 Sep (ARLENE 1967)
5 – 02 Sep (DEBBY 1988)

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It's almost a little too large. I have a feeling it will be one of those slopgyrecanes (assuming on the dubious premise that it does become a hurricane sometime in its life).

 

This easterly wave hasn't formed yet. We are relying on the conv parameterization schemes of the models to trigger the wave still... Not a good thing =/

 

rain_v.africa.total.30.5N-15N.gif

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As Mike's excellent chart shows, 98L still has a strong signature.  Its vorticity and rotation are holding together decently S. of the Cape Verdes though convection has been on the wane.  I would watch it for development in 3-5 days - as long as it moves slowly enough to maintain enough distance from the TUTT and dry air to its west. 

Some good satellite links:

http://sat11.sat24.com/af?ir=true

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&REGION=AFRICA&SECTOR=Overview&PRODUCT=ir_images&SUB_PRODUCT=meteo8&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Full&PATH=AFRICA/Overview/ir_images/meteo8&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

This easterly wave hasn't formed yet. We are relying on the conv parameterization schemes of the models to trigger the wave still... Not a good thing =/

 

rain_v.africa.total.30.5N-15N.gif

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As Mike's excellent chart shows, 98L still has a strong signature.  Its vorticity and rotation are holding together decently S. of the Cape Verdes though convection has been on the wane.  I would watch it for development in 3-5 days - as long as it moves slowly enough to maintain enough distance from the TUTT and dry air to its west. 

 

Kill it!!  I totally hope it dies.  I want to break the 11 Sep record.  Just one more week to go.  We might as well have fun with this.   B)

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The Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are even more dried out than we saw during 

the strongest El Nino on record which was developing during the summer of 1997.

At least in 1997, we were able to get 3 hurricanes and a major by September

8th before things slowed down.

 

 

 

 

 

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