Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 ^^^ I can't really see the LLC, it is obscured by higher clouds, but last night on the SWIR loops when I could see the center, it was already about 16ºN and moving NW. So a location almost near 17º isn't surprising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 12z coordinates are a bit old, but they remain underneath the deep convection. Upper level cirrus clouds are expanding somewhat in all quadrants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 12z coordinates are a bit old, but they remain underneath the deep convection. Upper level cirrus clouds are expanding somewhat in all quadrants. Yea it also looks like the NW vort is starting to get sucked north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Starting to see some real nice turning @ these coordinates Convection just needs to hold on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Positive sign, winds ahead of the trailing wave are from the South ahead of it, that may eventually weaken its vorticity and allow 97L to become dominant. New GFS, 97L is weakened but survives crossing Hispaniola, which would be good, but a new vortex forms to the Northeast (I guess from the following wave) and heads off to fish while 97L dwindles over the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Recon just took off. Lets see what's cooking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 ..... I'm a little optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a depression sometime tommorrow afternoon.Keeping my fingers crossed that Recon finds a T.D. under there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Radar keeps improving steadily... I'm reasonably sure there is a closed circulation. That stratiform shield is hanging in quite nicely early this afternoon, with obvious banding features in the NW semicircle. NHC will probably go code red (cherry) at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Looks great on visible and IR. Hoping if it does develop we don't get a fish though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Nah it hasn't anything to do with climate change. I stay out of these discussions too. I want to share the research that may give small** suggestions why we are seeing global TC activity lower than average.. but I know my job wouldn't be happy with me There are hypotheses floating around out there though that focus on strat-interactions. OK, just tell me this is all cyclical, and that the NATL is going to resume making big, intense hurricanes at some point. I'm seriously starting to wonder. It's been years since we've seen really good systems-- not since 2008, really. Or the pre-satellite record of NO hurricanes from both 1907 and 1914. Oops! I didn't even realize that. OK, so the 1905 record is pretty irrelevant, then. Thanks for setting me straight! How much dust is there left to blow off that continent.. shouldn't it just be rock by now. lol Lolz, totally. That is before the last time the Cubs won the Series, so the lists below show just some of the things which have happened in that time. I http://sincethecubswon.tumblr.com/ Another list from a few years ago (it is a bit baseball focused due to the original reason for it) http://www.jordoncooper.com/2009/03/20-things-that-have-happened-since-the-chicago-cubs-last-won-the-world-series/\ Things are definitely looking a bit more interesting even if things may still be slow going. Ha ha ha, cool list. Puts it all in historic perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Plane didn't have long to fly. Matching up lat/longs with satellite imagery, I was kind of expecting lower pressures and stronger winds in the HDOBs. But it is early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 NWS Puerto Rico radar, significant evidence of some type of circulation and when combined with recon data may lead to Code Red or TD. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It think the center may be just north of I3- What do you guys think? - If it is I think the models are too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It think the center may be just north of I3- What do you guys think? - If it is I think the models are too far south Faster than expected intensification possibly caused the more northward component; or perhaps interaction with the wave east of 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Wonder if that huge blob of rain is going to make it to St Croix... my flight there leaves in half an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 No cherrification at 2 pm. Lolz, this system is full o' fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 No cherrification at 2 pm. Lolz, this system is full o' fail. Recon is not complete yet, there were some decent north winds and very light west winds. Obviously poorly defined but has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 000ABNT20 KNHC 041759TWOATTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL200 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOWPRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICOHAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM STILL LACKS AWELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBEDWEATHER JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO MERGEWITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTALCONDITIONS OTHERWISE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONALDEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA AND PUERTORICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARDAT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLAND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURINGTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLYINVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM. No cherrification at 2 pm. Lolz, this system is full o' fail. I think you need a break from this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 IMBY watch, GFS shows a wave with decent moisture, subtle at 850 mb but obvious at 700 mb and 500 mb in a week in the Gulf/BoC. If anything develops, 500 mb patterns suggests Northern Mexico. Convectively active, but little sign of a surface reflection. But decent tropical waves in early September in an area where fishing is not allowed, worth watching, Lot of 1008 mb and below pressures on the GEFS, but no closed lows. I think 97L disappoints, but 12Z GEFS does have one perturbation with a sub 996 mb Hatteras hurricane a week from Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Super broad area of meh low pressure, 1010.4 mb was lowest. Not consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Recon is not complete yet, there were some decent north winds and very light west winds. Obviously poorly defined but has potential. Potential 40-kt fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 Super broad area of meh low pressure 1010.4 mb was lowest. Not consolidated. "Low" pressure. You know the season is crap when on 04 Sep we're referring to 1010 mb as a "low center". That's usually the ambient pressure for a typical 'cane. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Potential 40-kt fish! It's ironic because all systems are go for a decent cane, nice anti-cyclone over it. May simply be a case of delayed but not denied (along with your post September 11th cane fail). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Recon is not complete yet, there were some decent north winds and very light west winds. Obviously poorly defined but has potential. Just between us, even with a 3 knot West wind, ballpark 1010 mb pressure and 15 or 20 knot top winds probably won't get 97L upgraded. Still early though. Satellite imagery had me thinking they'd find a 30 knot depression down around 1005 mb or so. Which is why I am not employed by any of the satellite Dvorak interpretation centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 97L has and its doppelganger have almost finished becoming one blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 At least we have the fat fish to look forward to! A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISPOSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I'd wait until recon gets near the red marker. The mission just started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 At least we will have the PR radar to give us a good look at 97L tonight during dmax. The system has really expanded its convection today though, gotta find the positives I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 At least we have the fat fish to look forward to! A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS gfs_mslp_sig_eatl_tropical_65.png I hope not, 12Z on 12 September is way too close to 5 pm EDT September 11th when Gustav got upgraded, and if we're going to have a dead season, lets make it memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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