mappy Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 poor joshypoo and this lame hurricane season (wub ya josh!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Well, it gets close enough to Cape Cod to be vaguely interesting and make surfers happy on the ECMWF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 poor joshypoo and this lame hurricane season (wub ya josh!) The hurricane season has degenerated to baby talk and excitement about a -80C tower. 2013 sucks LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 NWS Puerto Rico radar, significant evidence of some type of circulation and when combined with recon data may lead to Code Red or TD. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Pretty good evidence of some type of inner core trying to develp per that radar. Bright banding close to the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Surface winds coming in now, gotta be close to a TD. There is a definite circulation, looks pretty decent on visible. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-short.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Surface winds coming in now, gotta be close to a TD. There is a definite circulation, looks pretty decent on visible. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-short.html The outflow is almost perfectly symmetrical; chances of cane are at 50/50 imo; the conservative ECMFW develops a high-end Tropical Storm. I do not know if it is completely tropical however. There are also indications that the long-range pattern is in the process of changing to persistent ridging in Eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 At least we have the fat fish to look forward to! A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS gfs_mslp_sig_eatl_tropical_65.png Why is that an auto fish? As modeled you have decent ridging to the north, at least in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I'm sorry Josh, if it makes you feel any better, it was all my fault.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I've seen worse looking high end TS's on IR than current 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I hope not, 12Z on 12 September is way too close to 5 pm EDT September 11th when Gustav got upgraded, and if we're going to have a dead season, lets make it memorable. I can imagine Josh's rage if that CV fish sloppycane progged in the globals peaks at 65 kt at exactly 2 pm EDT September 11th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 poor joshypoo and this lame hurricane season (wub ya josh!) Is it too late to rename him TropicalWaveJosh?? <too soon??> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Is it too late to rename him TropicalWaveJosh?? <too soon??>TropicalDepressionJosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Center near some very deep convection, 41kt at 970mb, the SFMR readings are obviously very inflated because of very heavy rain rates 192900 1700N 06528W 9700 00358 0109 +215 +215 107029 031 039 036 00 192930 1700N 06530W 9697 00359 0108 +217 +217 101031 033 052 046 00 193000 1700N 06531W 9711 00348 0104 +218 +218 097035 036 058 044 00 193030 1700N 06533W 9700 00353 0104 +215 +215 099038 040 065 031 00 193100 1700N 06535W 9704 00350 0106 +215 +215 091037 041 058 023 00 193130 1700N 06537W 9708 00347 0108 +205 //// 076024 031 037 015 05 193200 1659N 06538W 9696 00355 0107 +204 //// 069021 023 033 011 01 193230 1658N 06539W 9706 00350 0107 +215 +215 066021 022 035 010 00 193300 1656N 06539W 9706 00349 0105 +213 //// 063021 023 047 013 01 193330 1655N 06540W 9702 00351 0105 +215 +215 065020 022 038 019 00 193400 1653N 06541W 9713 00352 0098 +215 +215 077010 016 050 032 00 193430 1652N 06541W 9701 00351 0102 +215 +215 094010 013 049 031 03 193500 1650N 06542W 9699 00350 0101 +217 +217 091005 010 053 041 00 193530 1649N 06542W 9708 00342 0101 +222 +222 048006 008 049 032 03 193600 1648N 06543W 9741 00316 0098 +231 +231 153001 007 022 010 00 193630 1646N 06543W 9776 00283 //// +230 //// 282002 004 017 006 01 193700 1645N 06544W 9762 00295 //// +229 //// 239003 004 009 002 01 193730 1643N 06544W 9778 00279 //// +230 //// 203005 006 003 002 05 193800 1642N 06544W 9774 00282 //// +230 //// 199006 007 003 000 05 193830 1640N 06545W 9774 00284 //// +233 //// 205007 007 002 000 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Why is that an auto fish? As modeled you have decent ridging to the north, at least in that time frame. It would be at approx 20N, 33W according to those model depictions. I recall Don S doing a study once at Eastern that showed how rare a tropical system was that made it all the way to the US Mainland from anywhere north and east of 20N, 60W. This is progged to be 27 degrees further EAST than that line in the sand. Ain't gonna make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Why is that an auto fish? As modeled you have decent ridging to the north, at least in that time frame. Meh, both the ECMWF and GFS show this future system reaching 20N before 40W. It's just that very few systems (if any) that have been that far north that far east have reached the islands, much less the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 TropicalDepressionJosh That's depressing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hmm lol 19:30:30Z 17.000N 65.550W 970.0 mb (~ 28.64 inHg) 353 meters (~ 1,158 feet) 1010.4 mb (~ 29.84 inHg) - From 99° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph) 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F) 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F) 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph) 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph) 31 mm/hr (~ 1.22 in/hr) 61.8 knots (~ 71.0 mph) Tropical Storm 162.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Meh, both the ECMWF and GFS show this future system reaching 20N before 40W. It's just that very few systems (if any) that have been that far north that far east have reached the islands, much less the CONUS. It would be at approx 20N, 33W according to those model depictions. I recall Don S doing a study once at Eastern that showed how rare a tropical system was that made it all the way to the US Mainland from anywhere north and east of 20N, 60W. This is progged to be 27 degrees further EAST than that line in the sand. Ain't gonna make it. I know how rare it is for any CV system to make it all the way to the US mainland. I was simply stating that as currently progged it's not an automatic fish yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Hmm lol 19:30:30Z 17.000N 65.550W 970.0 mb (~ 28.64 inHg) 353 meters (~ 1,158 feet) 1010.4 mb (~ 29.84 inHg) - From 99° at 38 knots (From the E at ~ 43.7 mph) 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F) 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F) 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph) 65 knots (~ 74.8 mph) 31 mm/hr (~ 1.22 in/hr) 61.8 knots (~ 71.0 mph) Tropical Storm 162.5% Their was just another big burst of deep convection very close to the progged center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Their was just another big burst of deep convection very close to the progged center. Ya this thing looks better than anything we have seen recently and that's not saying much haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I know how rare it is for any CV system to make it all the way to the US mainland. I was simply stating that as currently progged it's not an automatic fish yet. I understand what you are saying about current depictions, but any storm that far north and that far east really is an automatic fish according to climo on storms at such a position historically. I would tend to think the models will eventually make a fish out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Big burst of convection almost directly over the center now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I know how rare it is for any CV system to make it all the way to the US mainland. I was simply stating that as currently progged it's not an automatic fish yet. As currently progged verbatim, it's 99.99% likely to be fish. That said, if the system ends up weaker than progged in the east Atlantic (certainly a possibility given the conditions this year), the chances of fish will decrease significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 As currently progged verbatim, it's 99.99% likely to be fish. That said, if the system ends up weaker than progged in the east Atlantic (certainly a possibility given the conditions this year), the chances of fish will decrease significantly. Several of the 12z GEFS members have a very late recurve, some of them actually making landfall in Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 What a fing mess lol AP08 looks like the 1933 Potomac Hurricane Track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 even if it recurves I can appreciate a decent cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 No doubt where the core is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 New invest over eastern MDR, HS29L? I wonder if this is designated for the HS3 field campaign? GFS indicating increased low-level vorticity collocated with convection..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 There is a pretty clear circulation center on San Juan radar. How isn't this classified yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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