wxsmwhrms Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Hope recon is flying the Gulf. 99L looks to be getting its act together pretty quickly...outflow expanding and depending on where the LLC is, could be an anticyclone aloft building over it based on high density sat winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Hope recon is flying the Gulf. 99L looks to be getting its act together pretty quickly...outflow expanding and depending on where the LLC is, could be an anticyclone aloft building over it based on high density sat winds... ASCAT pass in 1-2 hours will nail most of the circulation, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Tiny swirl apparently at ~22.6N 95W...if that's the case, and it's the dominant LLC, then meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Tiny swirl apparently at ~22.6N 95W...if that's the case, and it's the dominant LLC, then meh Yeah, I see it. That would not be a good place for it if development is desired, LOL. Seems like some broader turning farther east, but obviously not sure what level that is focused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Yeah, I see it. That would not be a good place for it if development is desired, LOL. Seems like some broader turning farther east, but obviously not sure what level that is focused... No way to know, but careful staring at vis and IR, I suspect there is a dominant LLC to the Northeast. Airplane, I think, is taking off anytime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 ASCAT confirms the exposed swirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 ASCAT confirms the exposed swirl 20130905_15_17_flag.gif Yeah, but there is a trough extending to the NE where better low level vorticity could become focused more collocated with the better convection and in a better upper level environment. Certainly ASCAT helps show that it's not rapidly developing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 12z ECMWF gives me hope that we're going to break the record on Sept 11th Model support for the "fat fish" wave has weakened some. Officially sign me up for a hurricane-less season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Hmm. Recon finding 30 kts on the N side of 99L. If it's closed and has a LLC, the NHC could label it a depression if they wanted to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Euro showing support for a BOC storm past day 7 which will probably be over water for about 12 hr and have all the ingredients but time to intensify significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Hmm. Recon finding 30 kts on the N side of 99L. If it's closed and has a LLC, the NHC could label it a depression if they wanted to. Looks like they found a wind shift around 22.36N 95.63W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Someone please just make this season end... 34 knot winds on the north side with a possible displaced LLC. Oh, and this has about 18 hours before it's over Mexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Someone please just make this season end... 34 knot winds on the north side with a possible displaced LLC. Oh, and this has about 18 hours before it's over Mexico What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 What other things affect the global tropics? I honestly can't think of any, which is why I keep coming back to the Hadley Cell argument. Yep, I'm in that same boat lol. I don't think the subtropics explain everything but they are the only obvious thing which stick out right now. Also, I didn't put it in that post but the -PDO is likely largely responsible for the unfavorable SSTA configuration we currently have. Negative PDO Correlated with SSTs since the satellite era: For those familiar with PSD plotting, no you can't correlate the negative phase of an oscillation, however, you can invert the color bar and then slap on the normal color bar as I have done here. So positive correlation here means when PDO is negative, SSTs are positive and vice versa. (sorry for all the images, btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 It's a head scratcher and I imagine it makes you want to pull your hair out...lol. I agree about the Hadley cell and subsidence...I guess what I meant is that what factors are causing it (Hadley cell issue) and could this have been seen. See my post above. Likely -PDO forcing contributing to unfavorable SST anomalies in the subtropics. I think that is part of it for sure, but haven't we had SST profiles like this before and still a half decent tropical season? Is the QBO having a say? What about all the rising air in the EPAC. I know it's not extreme, but could sinking air from that be just enough to throw it off? The rather stout AO and higher band of height anomalies circling the globe? Maybe a combo of several factors... I've heard the QBO mentioned a few times but it's in the westerly phase which is the (slightly) more favorable phase. And you're right, rising air over the EPAC probably isn't helping (it's been above average despite their below average season). It's certainly a combo of multiple different factors. Issue is finding the most relevant ones. Makes for fun discussions though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 The editorial puzzle with the iCyclone Facebook page this year has been: "Which lame, boring system do we headline today?" We have a dying TD Gaby and some BoC cluster in one basin-- and a lame TD heading for cool waters in the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 The editorial puzzle with the iCyclone Facebook page this year has been: "Which lame, boring system do we headline today?" We have a dying TD Gaby and some BoC cluster in one basin-- and a lame TD heading for cool waters in the other. Ray-o-hope for what its worth... the GEFS and the Euro continue to hint the "Carla Cradle" may offer something moving generally NW in about a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I hope 99L becomes 35-KT Humberto just so we can be 8/0/0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 Ray-o-hope for what its worth... the GEFS and the Euro continue to hint the "Carla Cradle" may offer something moving generally NW in about a week or so. I saw that, and Mike Ventrice mentioned it, too. I hope 99L becomes 35-KT Humberto just so we can be 8/0/0. Lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 No Atlantic storm has lasted consecutively more than four days this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jordanwx Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I hope 99L becomes 35-KT Humberto just so we can be 8/0/0. Me too! I thought I was the only one hoping for record low hurricane activity. I hope we break the September 11th hurricane formation record too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Me too! I thought I was the only one hoping for record low hurricane activity. I hope we break the September 11th hurricane formation record too. I'm not specifically rooting for record low ACE... I'd like to see *something*...but at this point it's just hilarious with Gabrielle lasting two seconds and the next possible system having less than a day over water...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AutoPenalti Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 No Atlantic storm has lasted consecutively more than four days this year.No Atlantic storm has passed 65 kts this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 Me too! I thought I was the only one hoping for record low hurricane activity. I hope we break the September 11th hurricane formation record too. Well, to be clear, I'm hoping for it just so we can break the 11 Sep record-- to commemorate our people's suffering. After that, I want a string of Cat-4 landfalls in chaseable locations. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 I hope 99L becomes 35-KT Humberto just so we can be 8/0/0. Lets do it in fact lets make the seasonal forcast number but with only trop storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Well, to be clear, I'm hoping for it just so we can break the 11 Sep record-- to commemorate our people's suffering. After that, I want a string of Cat-4 landfalls in chaseable locations. Thx. Just to make it more hilarious, this season should be all weak, uninteresting tropical storms...except one category 5 landfalling hurricane in late October. 16/1/1, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 Just to make it more hilarious, this season should be all weak, uninteresting tropical storms...except one category 5 landfalling hurricane in late October. 16/1/1, I'd say. Why so bland? Let's make it 2 Category 5 hurricane landfalls in December. Not that makes too much meteorological sense, but hey, neither has this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL555 PM EDT THU SEP 5 2013FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON SYSTEM IN THESOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICALDEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THEDOMINICAN REPUBLIC.UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATEDTHE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OFTAMPICO MEXICO AND DID NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OFCIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PASTSEVERAL HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILLPOSSIBLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE LOWMOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HASA MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OFTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BEPOSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ ANDTAMAULIPAS THROUGH FRIDAY.A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATEDWITH A SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDSNEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTICWATERS FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ISEXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEMHAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONEDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEMMOVES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTICOCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPEVERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO DRYAIR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERYUNFAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWESTAT ABOUT 10 MPH.OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERNATLANTIC OCEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THISSYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THISSYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.&&FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTSON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO$FORECASTER PASCH/BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 So much text, so little to chew one. That's just some serious fail all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2013 Share Posted September 5, 2013 So much text, so little to chew one. That's just some serious fail all around. At least hypothetical hurricanes is running with Hurricane Josh in the 2018 and has it down to 894 mb. http://hypotheticalhurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/2018_Celebrity_hurricane_season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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