Atlantic Tropical Action 2013 - Part 2

[user13]

Looks like a N trend is continuing with the Early 0z runs

[EasternUSWX]

Looks like a N trend is continuing with the Early 0z runs

 

Makes sense, thing is drifting NW it looks like. More fish food. 

[user13]

Makes sense, thing is drifting NW it looks like. More fish food. 

 Even though I love storms this is one I want to go north because of my trip to DR later this week

[Ed Lizard]

0Z CIMSS analysis shows low to mid level vortices are getting fairly well aligned.  At least initially, and I'm mentally filtering out the affect of 97L itself in the CIMSS layer wind analysis, steering from low level/weak systems through fairly deep level Cat 3 storm steering, all would seem to suggest generally Westward initial motion, not the WNW to NW motion of the models.

 

GFS rolling in, through 4 days still weak and competing low level vort maxes, getting dangerously close, North of Puerto Rico, to the latitude it/they could get captured by the passing trough.  11 pm local, may not wait until the bitter end.

[EasternUSWX]

All the excess convection around 97L is dying down, now time to see if this thing can do something.

 

 

[HurricaneJosh]

The 00Z GFS is showing a cyclone forming in the BoC around Day 10 and moving N to hit the Upper TX Coast around Day 14.  Kinda interestin'.

[jconsor]

The 00Z GFS is showing a cyclone forming in the BoC around Day 10 and moving N to hit the Upper TX Coast around Day 14.  Kinda interestin'.

 

I'm not buying that specific scenario much as the GFS has a tendency for spinning up spurious cyclones in that area in the long range due to convective feedback. Also it has little support from its ensembles. 

 

However, the pattern setting up does indicate a decent likelihood of systems developing in the W. Carib and Gulf in the Sep 12-20 timeframe before the MJO swings back toward neutral.  The upper pattern that is being modeled for mid-Sep (strong w. Atlantic ridging and trough in the western US) does suggest the US Gulf Coast could be threatened by such systems and that they wouldn't necessarily keep going west into Mexico like the past few have.

[phlwx]

Euro looks to have two ideas with 97L. Part of the energy associated with it gradually meanders around the Bermuda High late in the 0z run last night (east of Jacksonville at hour 210), with the lowest pressures taking a more southern route through the Caribbean...albeit very slowly...through the period until the low is parked out near the NW tip of the Yucatan in 10 days.

 

The Euro does appear to take some of the moisture with 97L (not the lowest surface reflection) across Hispaniola later this week...but it really isn't moving it in any hurry.

 

Meh.

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm not buying that specific scenario much as the GFS has a tendency for spinning up spurious cyclones in that area in the long range due to convective feedback. Also it has little support from its ensembles. 

 

However, the pattern setting up does indicate a decent likelihood of systems developing in the W. Carib and Gulf in the Sep 12-20 timeframe before the MJO swings back toward neutral.  The upper pattern that is being modeled for mid-Sep (strong w. Atlantic ridging and trough in the western US) does suggest the US Gulf Coast could be threatened by such systems and that they wouldn't necessarily keep going west into Mexico like the past few have.

 

Interesting.  Well, I'll take that scenario.  I hope you're right.    Thanks, Justin.

[Ed Lizard]

0Z CIMSS analysis shows low to mid level vortices are getting fairly well aligned.  At least initially, and I'm mentally filtering out the affect of 97L itself in the CIMSS layer wind analysis, steering from low level/weak systems through fairly deep level Cat 3 storm steering, all would seem to suggest generally Westward initial motion, not the WNW to NW motion of the models.

 

GFS rolling in, through 4 days still weak and competing low level vort maxes, getting dangerously close, North of Puerto Rico, to the latitude it/they could get captured by the passing trough.  11 pm local, may not wait until the bitter end.

 

Hard to tell for sure from satellite of a weak system, but it does look like it is gaining latitude.  I don't see West winds South of where I *think* 97L is on obs.

 

Doesn't look great, but I hope they send the recon anyway.  I'd hope the Global Hawk checks out the blob to the East, that looks like it is gaining organization as well.  My pet Yucatan lemon flaring nicely, although main blob action is North of best vorticity.  Hoping against hope for a STX sloppy TD that swings 2 inch plus PW this way.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Unreal 9/3 during what should be a hyper active season and crapola! Something has to give there is way to much stored energy in the Atlantic now. I have a feeling we see another October Sandy-esk baroclinicaly enhanced monster somewhere on the East Coast.

[HurricaneJosh]

Unreal 9/3 during what should be a hyper active season and crapola! Something has to give there is way to much stored energy in the Atlantic now. I have a feeling we see another October Sandy-esk baroclinicaly enhanced monster somewhere on the East Coast.

 

Ugh.  If that happens again, I'm permanently retiring as a Tropical Dude.  I couldn't take two years in a row with a hollowed out, coreless nor'easter headlining the "hurricane" season.

[Sunny and Warm]

Ugh.  If that happens again, I'm permanently retiring as a Tropical Dude.  I couldn't take two years in a row with a hollowed out, coreless nor'easter headlining the "hurricane" season.

snob

[Derecho!]

I'm actually sort of surprised the Yucatan thing doesn't have an invest yet.

 

98L has turned crappy, and it indeed is heading towards the N as the GFS indicated.

[AutoPenalti]

Ugh. If that happens again, I'm permanently retiring as a Tropical Dude. I couldn't take two years in a row with a hollowed out, coreless nor'easter headlining the "hurricane" season.

A year after Josh retires:

19 Tropical Storms

11 Hurricanes

5 Major Hurricanes

...and 13 U.S. landfalls.

[wxmeddler]

Global Hawk 871 is en route to 97L. I'm sure the HS3 crew are also thinking about retiring with this season.

[thewxmann]

Unreal 9/3 during what should be a hyper active season and crapola! Something has to give there is way to much stored energy in the Atlantic now. I have a feeling we see another October Sandy-esk baroclinicaly enhanced monster somewhere on the East Coast.

 

There's plenty of ways to release that stored energy besides hurricanes. The atmosphere does not owe us anything.

[wxmx]

Global Hawk 871 is en route to 97L. I'm sure the HS3 crew are also thinking about retiring with this season.

Why?, this is like retirement already

[Ed Lizard]

Up to me, I'd have sent the low level invest today.

 

Hint of a partially nude swirl about 14ºN and 63ºW.  It could always fire convection.

 

Asked and not answered, the drone is flying without dropsondes, best I could tell from yesterday's TPOD.  I assume then it has the dual azimuth wind/rain sensing radar?  Still think height/RH and wind info from sondes would have been nice, but I don't know if the Global Hawk can carry sondes and the fancy radar.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm actually sort of surprised the Yucatan thing doesn't have an invest yet.

 

98L has turned crappy, and it indeed is heading towards the N as the GFS indicated.

I hope whatever might try to develop happens near the best upper divergence and lower convergence and where the biggest blob is, not way down South where the best (albeit weak) vorticity is.  10 to 20 knots of CIMSS analyzed Northwesterly shear isn't going to be the Yucatan waves friend.

[jconsor]

This is true.  However, I have noticed that in +AMO, non-El Nino years where Jul and Aug are exceptionally quiet, there is a tendency for significant Sep or Oct hurricanes to develop in the Caribbean and Gulf despite the unfavorable conditions earlier in the season.

 

Some examples:

1948 - 2 Caribbean hurricanes hit sw FL, one in Sep (cat 4), one Oct (Cat 3)

1952 (no Jul-Aug activity aside from Able) - Fox in Oct (cat 4)
1954 (no Jul-Aug activity aside from Carol) - Hazel in Oct (cat 4)
1961 - Carla in Sep (cat 5)
1967 - Beula in Sep (cat 5)
1988 (not in the long-term positive AMO phase, but tropical Atlantic SSTs were significantly above normal) - Gilbert in Sep (cat 5), Joan in Oct (cat 4)

2002 - Isidore in Sep (cat 3), Lili in late Sep-early Oct (cat 4)

 

There are a few counter-examples that had a very quiet Jul/Aug and did not feature significant activity in the Caribbean/Gulf in Sep-Oct, but the overall trend appears to be toward more activity there than one would expect from the first half of the season.

 

There's plenty of ways to release that stored energy besides hurricanes. The atmosphere does not owe us anything.

[wxmeddler]

Asked and not answered, the drone is flying without dropsondes, best I could tell from yesterday's TPOD.  I assume then it has the dual azimuth wind/rain sensing radar?  Still think height/RH and wind info from sondes would have been nice, but I don't know if the Global Hawk can carry sondes and the fancy radar.

 

Correct. The HS3 mission has 2 global hawks at their disposal. Today they are flying #871

 

Global Hawk #871 is the "Over-Storm" plane.

HiWrap: Ka/Ku Band Radar

HAMSR: Multi-band Microwave imager

HiRAD: C-band Radiometer (Essentially a bigger version of the SFMR on the Hurricane hunter flights)

Global Hawk #872 is the "Environment" plane.

TWiLiTE: Doppler lidar that takes wind profiles

AVAPS: Dropsonde System (Holds 72 I believe)

CPL: Cloud Physics Lidar (like CloudSAT)

[Cheeznado]

Very consistent signal on the GFS continues of a CV system likely becoming a hurricane in a little over a week- If it does develop

a mid-ocean recurve is by far the most likely outcome. It is really only of interest to see if the satellite-era record of latest Atlantic basin hurricane can be broken. Otherwise it continues to look deadly dull, but I agree that late Sept-Oct might very well at least have a few interesting storms closer to the US.

[wxsmwhrms]

12Z GFS takes a well defined 850 mb vort max northwest to north of Hispaniola over the next 72-92 hours in what looks like a reasonably favorable environment shear/moisture wise.  It even shows a closed surface low at times.  However, it never gets the 500-850 mb vorticity maxima completely aligned.

[user13]

What do you guys think the weather will be like in Punta Cana (Thursday - Sunday) especially with cloud cover. Model wise I am not sure I trust the exact track yet. I need it to go 50 miles more north and I think rain would be much less of an issue too.

 

Thinking about calling in the insurance on my trip not sure what to do.

 

- LBAR and AEMI models would be somewhat ideal

[Derecho!]

What do you guys think the weather will be like in Punta Cana (Thursday - Sunday) especially with cloud cover. Model wise I am not sure I trust the exact track yet. I need it to go 50 miles more north and I think rain would be much less of an issue too.

 

Thinking about calling in the insurance on my trip not sure what to do.

 

- LBAR and AEMI models would be somewhat ideal

 

LBAR is an extremely ancient, primitive model that nobody seriously looks at anymore.

 

AEMI is actually the average of a bunch of GFS ensembles, which actually does matter and is worth looking at.

[Ed Lizard]

I really wish recon was flying today, 97L looks better on visible imagery than it has the entire time it was an invest.  I see definite evidence of a closed low level circulation in cloud fields (turn on the lat/long lines for reference) and it has some deep convection ( -60ºC, not the -80º everyone hopes for but reasonable) near the LLC.

 

 

[user13]

I really wish recon was flying today, 97L looks better on visible imagery than it has the entire time it was an invest.  I see definite evidence of a closed low level circulation in cloud fields (turn on the lat/long lines for reference) and it has some deep convection ( -60ºC, not the -80º everyone hopes for but reasonable) near the LLC.

Its finally moving now too

[HurricaneJosh]

snob

 

 

A year after Josh retires:

19 Tropical Storms

11 Hurricanes

5 Major Hurricanes

...and 13 U.S. landfalls.

 

 

There's plenty of ways to release that stored energy besides hurricanes. The atmosphere does not owe us anything.

 

Hush, it owes me a Cat-4 landfall on a chaseable landmass.

 

This is true.  However, I have noticed that in +AMO, non-El Nino years where Jul and Aug are exceptionally quiet, there is a tendency for significant Sep or Oct hurricanes to develop in the Caribbean and Gulf despite the unfavorable conditions earlier in the season.

 

Some examples:

1948 - 2 Caribbean hurricanes hit sw FL, one in Sep (cat 4), one Oct (Cat 3)

1952 (no Jul-Aug activity aside from Able) - Fox in Oct (cat 4)

1954 (no Jul-Aug activity aside from Carol) - Hazel in Oct (cat 4)

1961 - Carla in Sep (cat 5)

1967 - Beula in Sep (cat 5)

1988 (not in the long-term positive AMO phase, but tropical Atlantic SSTs were significantly above normal) - Gilbert in Sep (cat 5), Joan in Oct (cat 4)

2002 - Isidore in Sep (cat 3), Lili in late Sep-early Oct (cat 4)

 

There are a few counter-examples that had a very quiet Jul/Aug and did not feature significant activity in the Caribbean/Gulf in Sep-Oct, but the overall trend appears to be toward more activity there than one would expect from the first half of the season.

 

To add to your examples, 1961 also had Hattie, another late-season Cat 5 in the W Caribbean.  (It hit Belize-- then British Honduras-- as a Cat 4.)

 

Very consistent signal on the GFS continues of a CV system likely becoming a hurricane in a little over a week- If it does develop

a mid-ocean recurve is by far the most likely outcome. It is really only of interest to see if the satellite-era record of latest Atlantic basin hurricane can be broken. Otherwise it continues to look deadly dull, but I agree that late Sept-Oct might very well at least have a few interesting storms closer to the US.

 

Yep-- totally.  I hope we break the record, just cuz I'm feeling spiteful.

[Ed Lizard]

Its finally moving now too

Still looks like it is dealing with dry air, judging from the outflow boundary, but I think it may be winning the battle.